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[TricMagic]

Roden. You here?

[Vector]

you FOOOOOOLS HAVE BETRAYED ME FOR THE LAST TIME !!

especially Roden.


We're here on D2 (seLectLo) so we now have a few pieces of information. I'm going to start with the obvious points that we all know:
- Not only is there a Headhunter, there is now presumably a Headhunter-ally.
- We can think both about who the headhunter could be based on yesterday, and look for specific interactions between hunter and huntee.

- Specifically, we should expect a significant change in behavior between Yesterday and Today in most cases.
- We should also look for a headhuntee today hunting the headhunter but not being very useful or successful in killing them.
- The headhunter might want to signal them, too. (CF Toony + Web mally some months ago).
- It is probably more helpful for the headhunter to convert a player who expressed some vague idea of their identity as opposed to someone who has no idea. This is a fine point for WIFOM.

Let's examine the situation numerically:
- Any town player voting randomly today has a 40% chance of hitting scum.
- Removing the ally decreases the player number by 1 but doesn't reduce enemy materiel that much (we need to take out the Headhunter to win, not just cap their allies).
- This is a game where, remaining hidden is a major advantage to the headhunter, more so than in most mafia games.
- Essentially, psychologically speaking, the headhunter is generating meatshields, not allies (they'll still be "alone" in the game).
- We should look for someone who is "morally" acting fairly similar to how they would behave as an SK.

-> Let's also look at what happens if we just nail the convertee repeatedly:
-- D3 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and three townies alive.
-- D4 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and two townies alive. Headhunter wins.

So to summarize this analysis: we need to find the Headhunter to win and we have at most three more days including this one to do it. Just shaving off the converts repeatedly is not helpful if it doesn't give us any info as to the identity of the Headhunter.


For the record, I wasn't converted, probably for WIFOM reasons, but I'll be shocked if D3 opens and I'm still town; so I'm going to just focus on doing my best Today. I need to spend some more time thinking about what this says psychologically about the Headhunter and draw some conclusions about players, but I wanted to upload the strategy post before I go to the year-end bbq.

[EuchreJack]

Good post by Vector!

I'm just gonna keep that green check on Vector and move on with my life.

[webadict]

I literally always follow your instructions unless you were acting very suspicious.

Well, that's not true.

I bring up Warplant Mafia because you DIDN'T hammer.

Ugh, I feel like this should be a obvious vote but Roden seems genuinely salty about this which is making me second guess

If anything... I wonder if you got converted.

Good post by Vector!

I'm just gonna keep that green check on Vector and move on with my life.

Pretty much have to for now. Vector didn't immediately jump on Knightwing OR me, when given the chance.

Unvote So, is it really Roden, then?

[TricMagic]

Unvote for now. Let Roden have his words.

Enjoy your BBQ Vector.

[EuchreJack]

My mind keeps wanting to Cult-ally search, but since the Cult-ally has no clue about the identity of the Cult Recruit, it's mostly useless.

[Roden]

Roden. You here?

Day started while I was asleep, chill a bit. It isn't my scum meta if I'm not even conscious.

you FOOOOOOLS HAVE BETRAYED ME FOR THE LAST TIME !!

especially Roden.


We're here on D2 (seLectLo) so we now have a few pieces of information. I'm going to start with the obvious points that we all know:
- Not only is there a Headhunter, there is now presumably a Headhunter-ally.
- We can think both about who the headhunter could be based on yesterday, and look for specific interactions between hunter and huntee.

- Specifically, we should expect a significant change in behavior between Yesterday and Today in most cases.
- We should also look for a headhuntee today hunting the headhunter but not being very useful or successful in killing them.
- The headhunter might want to signal them, too. (CF Toony + Web mally some months ago).
- It is probably more helpful for the headhunter to convert a player who expressed some vague idea of their identity as opposed to someone who has no idea. This is a fine point for WIFOM.

Let's examine the situation numerically:
- Any town player voting randomly today has a 40% chance of hitting scum.
- Removing the ally decreases the player number by 1 but doesn't reduce enemy materiel that much (we need to take out the Headhunter to win, not just cap their allies).
- This is a game where, remaining hidden is a major advantage to the headhunter, more so than in most mafia games.
- Essentially, psychologically speaking, the headhunter is generating meatshields, not allies (they'll still be "alone" in the game).
- We should look for someone who is "morally" acting fairly similar to how they would behave as an SK.

-> Let's also look at what happens if we just nail the convertee repeatedly:
-- D3 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and three townies alive.
-- D4 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and two townies alive. Headhunter wins.

So to summarize this analysis: we need to find the Headhunter to win and we have at most three more days including this one to do it. Just shaving off the converts repeatedly is not helpful if it doesn't give us any info as to the identity of the Headhunter.


For the record, I wasn't converted, probably for WIFOM reasons, but I'll be shocked if D3 opens and I'm still town; so I'm going to just focus on doing my best Today. I need to spend some more time thinking about what this says psychologically about the Headhunter and draw some conclusions about players, but I wanted to upload the strategy post before I go to the year-end bbq.

This is a good post, but it's mostly all stuff we already knew. Plus I think most people know you were most likely recruited last night.

Web keeping Knightwing open as an option is kind of surprising, but maybe he thinks town!me would rather just consider an easier target than try to 1v1 him. Granted, Knightwing's reaction to Web's case on him is bad, but I'm not sure why he would react so poorly if he actually was the Cult Leader.

👁👄👁

Accountable? For what? Voting the obviously acting suspect person like literally everybody else did?

Because Knightwing never hammers as Town there

You’re voting me because I hammered? That must be the worst, quickly thought up bullshit excuse I’ve ever heard.

And the crazy part is, if you were actually town web, you would know that argument was bullshit because I would never read deeply enough into the rules to actually know how many vote are needed to hammer.

NOT only that, but your reasoning doesn’t even hold water. You wouldn’t even know what my hammering tendencies were like because you’re basing me on like the FIRST or second game of mafia I’ve EVER played. You’re basing your reasoning on a outdated assumption.


Why would I believe in you? Because  Y O U  A R E  F U C K I N G  W E B A D I C T, You are legit the smartest person I know, I literally always follow your instructions unless you were acting very suspicious.


Come on guys, you know better then this, at least, I hope you do.

You also need to chill.

I'm not sure why you're claiming you always sheep Web. Since when?

[Roden]

Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.

With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.

[Knightwing64]

I was going to make a giant reply but I have had a pretty rough day, and I’m not going to bother. Do what you want

[webadict]

I was going to make a giant reply but I have had a pretty rough day, and I’m not going to bother. Do what you want

^scum

[TricMagic]

Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.

With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.

That bit confuses me. If it hits EoD why would they panic? If we fail to lynch them we lose. At best we go into Day 3 where it just takes 1 blitz vote to lose.

ninjaweb

[Roden]

I was going to make a giant reply but I have had a pretty rough day, and I’m not going to bother. Do what you want

I feel this, IRL stuff has killed my WIM in past games. You don't seem to be the most likely elimination though, and I'd rather you not give up regardless of your alignment.

[Roden]

Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.

With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.

That bit confuses me. If it hits EoD why would they panic? If we fail to lynch them we lose. At best we go into Day 3 where it just takes 1 blitz vote to lose.

ninjaweb

Because the cult isn't organized. I'm assuming we still have a leading wagon going all day, and if it's wrong then yeah, Cult Leader won't panic. But the Ally has no idea if they're actually about to lose and may make a push. Additionally, we're practically guaranteed to know that a wagon is wrong if it goes stale and no one really does much as we approach EoD.

We also have to keep in mind that the PoE is pretty small. It's basically just me vs Web, with a maybe on Knightwing. I don't think you or Jack are any form of Cult, and we know that Vector isn't the Leader. So there's not a whole lot to keep track of today, making it easier to observe and scrutinize the main suspects.

[EuchreJack]

Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.

With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.

Roden, I need you to explain this post.

WHY do you think you are getting recruited if you are voted out?

[webadict]

Knightwing, would you be willing to vote Roden?

Roden, would you be willing to vote Knightwing?

I just wanna see where you two are at.