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[Il Palazzo]

That's just Tuesday in Mother Russia, innit?


Boy oh boy, I can't wait for the results of the referendums. The tensions is killing me.

[Starver]

110% for Russia, baby! You just know it will be...

[Magmacube_tr]

There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre",  "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".

...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?

[Strongpoint]

Can anyone, anyone explain to me what is the Russian plan to win this war?

Even if we assume the most optimistic scenario for them, they annex new territories, threaten Ukraine with nukes if the advance will continue, then use a few tactical nukes against advancing troops, Ukraine folds and stops its counteroffensives... Then what?

Congratulations, you got some new territories, which are devastated by the war, full of disloyal and resisting population, with no options for any major business activity whatsoever. Everyone in the world knows that your army is so pathetic that you had to resort to nukes to prevent total defeat... You get new sanctions, your reputation is worse than North Korea's, etc

[Strongpoint]

That's just Tuesday in Mother Russia, innit?


Boy oh boy, I can't wait for the results of the referendums. The tensions is killing me.

Here are preliminary results.

"DPR" - "for" - 97,91% (14% of votes)

 "LPR"  - "for" - 97,82% (13% of votes)

Zaporizhzhia region - "for" - 98% (20% of votes)

Kherson region - "for" - 97,47%  (12% of votes)

Only a fraction of votes counted, everything can change!!!

[Magmacube_tr]

Can anyone, anyone explain to me what is the Russian plan to win this war?

It started as a giant bluff by Putin, really.

Entire thing was gamble. Putin wanted to achieve his goals by what amounts to just sheer intimidation with not much to actually go after the said goals except for a large reputation. Russia lost when Ukraine didn't just laid down and died.

Now Putin has to continue. He rose the stakes too high for himself. If he fails, which he already has, Russian oligarchs will get him where he stands and eat him alive like crabs descending upon their injured kin.

There is no strategy anymore. Russia is a dead state walking now.

[Great Order]

Can anyone, anyone explain to me what is the Russian plan to win this war?

Even if we assume the most optimistic scenario for them, they annex new territories, threaten Ukraine with nukes if the advance will continue, then use a few tactical nukes against advancing troops, Ukraine folds and stops its counteroffensives... Then what?

Congratulations, you got some new territories, which are devastated by the war, full of disloyal and resisting population, with no options for any major business activity whatsoever. Everyone in the world knows that your army is so pathetic that you had to resort to nukes to prevent total defeat... You get new sanctions, your reputation is worse than North Korea's, etc

At this point they're flailing.

The original intent was "Capture Kyiv in three days, nobody sanctions us because it happened so fast". Their backup plan was "Make sure plan A doesn't fail"

In other words, they became cocky, probably between Crimea and Syria they probably assumed that Ukraine would be just as easy, failing to take into account that the West has infiltrated Russia like a tapeworm and actively took steps to inform Ukraine about everything going on, and Ukraine receiving both a boot up the backside in the form of Crimea's annexation AND expertise from the West, who spent a long time working out how to beat Russia in conventional warfare. Then you combine it with Russia's horrific corruption problems crippling their military, and you've wound up with them screwing themselves over. The issue is Putin can't back down without losing masses of support from the Russian public and politicians but he seems incapable of winning conventionally too.

So now they're at the "Throw shit at the wall and see what sticks" stage, with the possibility that Putin will get desperate enough to risk ending modern civilisation because he'd rather the world burn than him lose his position in it.

Russia's stuck in a position they neither expected nor wanted to be. This really, *really* wasn't the plan.

[Quarque]

The problem is that Putin has been surrounded by sycophants for so many years, who will affirm everything he wants to hear, regardless if it remotely resembles the real world or not.
That's how the head of one of the largest intelligence agencies in the world could come to be so grossly misinformed about Ukraine.

[Lidku]

Remember a few posts ago when I said the Russian civilian exodus from Russia, will be like Syria?

I think as of now and in the coming days, this entire Russian refugee crisis will be worse than the Syrian refugee crisis.

This is entire thing is looking REALLY bad than the badness it was a few weeks/months ago.

[Lord Shonus]

There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre",  "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".

...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?

I haven't seen it, but from what I hear, the gore level is closer to a 15.

[Strongpoint]

Remember a few posts ago when I said the Russian civilian exodus from Russia, will be like Syria?

I think as of now and in the coming days, this entire Russian refugee crisis will be worse than the Syrian refugee crisis.

This is entire thing is looking REALLY bad than the badness it was a few weeks/months ago.

Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia will have very.... hmmm... entertaining times. Tens of thousands of Russian men will run out of their cash reserves in a few months and then the real fun will start. It is not like it is EU that can afford to feed a large mass of refugees. Those countries can't.

[Magmacube_tr]

There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre",  "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".

...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?

I haven't seen it, but from what I hear, the gore level is closer to a 15.

"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD"

[Strongpoint]

So, tomorrow we will see the show of "Russia celebrates annexation of new territories". It will be hilarious. I hope for a lot of "We will absolutely nuke Ukraine should they not stop advancing into Russia". Why? Because Russia always does the opposite of what they say.

Among other news, a pocket around Lyman is about to close and it may be the largest Russian defeat to date. We have like 2-3 more weeks of decent weather before fronts will get stalemated by rains.

[Great Order]

Also NATO's been very loudly not saying anything about a conventional retaliation against Russia if they use nuclear weapons in the war.

One guess is that NATO will go and splatter the Black Sea fleet.

The issue's more if Russia starts doing "tests" as a provocation, but on their own soil. Then again, I suspect Ukraine might choose to ignore that.

[Lord Shonus]

If NATO decided to use conventional weapons in retaliation for a nuclear strike by Russia, they wouldn't wast time with the Black Sea Fleet. The minute a NATO power engages militarily, it is open war. Which might not be off the table, but that war would not begin with a strike in such a minor target.

Most likely, it would begin with Russia's 20 favorite command bunkers and communications nexuses (nexi?) suddenly exploding, followed by an all out extermination campaign against Russian airpower.

Fortunately, even Russia probably isn't stupid enough to cross that Rubicon.