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[Strongpoint]

So... Today is 150th day of the second stage of the war...

If, in February, someone would say me that July frontline will look like this, that I'll keep seeing Ukrainian jets and helicopters flying near my house, that flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would rest on the bottom, that the Ukrainian economy will kinda keep working, I would say that it is ridiculous optimism.

Still, 100K+ dead Ukrainians (all official data and estimates are absurdly low, 100K is VERY optimistic), hundreds of thousands kidnapped, millions under brutal occupation, millions of refugees... And it is only the beginning.

[Great Order]

Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.

Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. 

I'm not saying it's likely, but that if there was an international investigation and that was the conclusion, I'd be unsurprised.

[Loud Whispers]

Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.

Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. 

People doing the bare minimum to avoid being responsible, resulting in catastrophes that they will be held responsible for, like the Russians shooting down their own advanced bomber aircraft

[Strongpoint]

https://freenationsrf.org/en.html

This "Forum of Free Nations of Russia" is an interesting development. Few decades too late but better late than never. I don't expect any immediate effects but I can see some leaders growing out of this thing.

[MaxTheFox]

Oh I heard of it. It will never gain traction unless Russia well and truly collapses. Even in the unlikely event there's a liberal revolution, the new government will simply crush the independence movements as the current one does. And I prefer it that way. Just a tiny minority of natives seething, mostly. As an ethnic Russian, I have nothing to gain and a lot to lose from Tomsk gaining independence. What "cultural independence"? We are culturally Russian. I'd rather a regime change than this """decolonization""" pile of bullshit. They can keep coping, seething, and malding, though. But I don't care what they want.

Just because I want a free Russia doesn't mean I should want to give a small minority their own states. The Siberian natives are literally irrelevant outside of Tatarstan and Tuva. They should have equal rights and nothing more.

[Strongpoint]

As an ethnic Russian, I have nothing to gain and a lot to lose from Tomsk gaining independence.

Why, why are you so sure of that? Let's look at this from a practical standpoint. Tomsk region is too small (well... It is around the size of Poland but...) to go independent alone. Let's look at a more realistic independent state, large chunk of middle Russia\Western Siberia spanning from the Arctic (giving access to the sea) to Kazakhstan, China and Mongolia.

This will be a country that is rich in natural resources (including oil and gas) and quite low population. Being independent from Moscow, all taxes and profits from natural resources will stay there. Rest of Russia will need to actually pay for this resources to keep their factories running instead of taking it away for free and giving some meager federal funding in return. Yes, this new country will need to pay for the transportation of oil and gas through new countries but those are minor costs. Oil and gas flow can also be redirected to China (China will happily help building pipes if needed)

If this state will keep some nukes, it will be absolutely safe from any invasion while having no need to keep a huge army. Also, there will be no need to pay for Pacific\Baltic\Black Sea Navy or for military operations in some Middle Eastern countries.

Direct trade (without caring about Moscow's political and economical interests) with the economical powerhouse of China will be far more beneficial for local people, too. And sweet customs money will go to the locals, not to Moscow. And locals will also get money for goods transiting through their territory from China to Moscow.

Also, let's not forget a minor convenience that when Moscow will choose to start a new war, locals won't need to go and die in places 1000s km away from their home...

Your life would be way better in such a hypothetical country. Barring some minor inconveniences like needing to cross the border to visit the warm beaches of Sochi

PS.

Just because I want a free Russia doesn't mean I should want to give a small minority their own states. The Siberian natives are literally irrelevant outside of Tatarstan and Tuva. They should have equal rights and nothing more.

Tiny countries are often impractical, but small minorities of indigenous people should have way more than equal rights. They need support for their culture, invaluable to humanity, to survive.

[MaxTheFox]

1. We rely on goods and services provided by the central government. I don't trust any local leadership to establish itself quickly enough to provide said goods and services quickly enough for people to not suffer. Lots of people would leave for Russia proper, depriving Siberia of labor that it is already starved of.
2. I don't trust China at all, why would I want to be even more dependent on them, they will make us even more of a puppet. The CCP is an insidious bunch.
3. Naive to think whoever divides Russia up (somehow, despite the nukes) will let any Russian state keep any nukes.
4. We already have a lot of Chinese stuff. I don't want to give China even more influence because they will subvert any new government.
5. I can concede the point about war, that is indeed a benefit.

I'd probably just go "oh cool now I can fairly painlessly leave for Europe" if I didn't already by then.

As for natives, fair enough. I'd even be fine with affirmative action if it doesn't involve territorial concessions.

[Strongpoint]

1. You rely on goods and services you BUY from the European part of Russia. In an independent state, you can continue to do the same or buy all that from someone else enjoying the benefit of being able to choose. Transition period may be somewhat rough but really, all you need to do is to elect adequate leadership and keep them in check. And having few people help prosperity not harm it. You don't need many workers to extract natural resources with modern technologies.
2. Not trusting China is good but it is not like former USSR Central Asian republics got consumed into China.
3. All you need is an adequate leadership that won't give those away
4. Yes, but do you get a fair share of customs profits from those goods or Moscow take the lion share?

For me, It is incredible that someone living in a colony full of natural resources and being literally robbed, says that independence would be a bad thing economically. I can see military reasons "we won't be able to protect ourselves" or some "cultural unity" or "attempt will be unsuccessful" or even "local elites will be even worse" but - "you know, the metropole supplies us with glass beads no one but them can provide those." is an unbelievable line of thought.

[MaxTheFox]

1. You rely on goods and services you BUY from the European part of Russia. In an independent state, you can continue to do the same or buy all that from someone else enjoying the benefit of being able to choose. Transition period may be somewhat rough but really, all you need to do is to elect adequate leadership and keep them in check. And having few people help prosperity not harm it. You don't need many workers to extract natural resources with modern technologies.
2. Not trusting China is good but it is not like former USSR Central Asian republics got consumed into China.
3. All you need is an adequate leadership that won't give those away
4. Yes, but do you get a fair share of customs profits from those goods or Moscow take the lion share?

For me, It is incredible that someone living in a colony full of natural resources and being literally robbed, says that independence would be a bad thing economically. I can see military reasons "we won't be able to protect ourselves" or some "cultural unity" or "attempt will be unsuccessful" or even "local elites will be even worse" but - "you know, the metropole supplies us with glass beads no one but them can provide those." is an unbelievable line of thought.

1. Those services are cheaper than buying those services from... who? Russia again? China? Fucking Mongolia?
2. Except they are falling udner heavy Chinese influence now. Kyrgyzstan since a while ago and now Kazakhstan.
3. And brave the sanctions that would again fall upon us? No thanks.
4. Well honestly as far as I know it's not a large share that Moscow takes.
5. You don't live here, you wouldn't know. No, I'm not brainwashed as you will undoubtedly accuse me of being, I barely even look at state-owned media and haven't in years. Having a foreigner moralize to me, a Siberian, that the problem is not just the government's authoritarianism but rather that Siberia is a "colony" is just

[Strongpoint]

Budget of Moscow:  ~3600 billion rubles, population ~12M
Budget of Tomsk: ~20 billion rubles, population ~0.5M

So, Moscow is 24 larger and... has 180 times larger budget.

If we will compare  towns\villages of the Moscow region and the Tomsk region - the difference will be even worse.

Is it Moscow that has oil, gas, coal and iron ore nearby?

_________________
Look at the USA. Do you know which state has the highest state expenditure per capita? It is Alaska. Because you know... they have many resources and low population (like Tomsk) and they are not a colony (unlike Tomsk.)

I don't care where you live. You are denying evident reality. You are living in a colony. Your money is stolen. And not only by corrupt politicians but by millions of citizens of Russia from other regions. Residents of Moscow live much better than residents of Tomsk because they use your resources, not because they are more hard-working or have some fair advantages. You are exploited.

[MaxTheFox]

As I said. We do not have the required instrastructure to provide necessary goods and services, and paying foreign countries for them will be even more expensive and nullify any profits. I do not trust our local elites to build that infrastructure in a timely manner. Alaska has its own infrastructure and more sophisticated factories of its own. Besides, I am a Russian, not a "Tomskian" or some shit. I have little attachment to Tomsk or even Siberia as a national identity and nothing can change that. It is simply not within my preferred world to have a shattered Russia, only a democratic one. If Siberia becomes independent, I'll just move to Germany or something if I didn't do it before.

Fuck, I'd say autonomy benefits us way more than deadass independence. I never said no reforms are needed as you seem to be implying. We lack viability as an independent nation. Alaska is autonomous, but not independent. I'd prefer that kind of federalization, TBH.

[Strongpoint]

Fuck, I'd say autonomy benefits us way more than deadass independence. I never said no reforms are needed as you seem to be implying. We lack viability as an independent nation. Alaska is autonomous, but not independent. I'd prefer that kind of federalization, TBH.

Now that makes sense. Becoming independent is not the only way to stop being a colony. Pushing for a fair system and decentralization is also a viable way to fix this. Actual decentralization into a de facto federation will likely be more economically viable than independence. But please stop pretending that Moscow doesn't treat Tomsk and all of Asian Russia as a colony. It absolutely does.

Saying that Western Syberia is lacking viability as an independent nation is just wrong. With minimal competency of elected officials, democratic independent Western Syberia will prosper. Even mildly authoritarian independent Western Syberia will prosper.

[MaxTheFox]

Whatever. Alright.

[hector13]

I don’t think this is the thread for arguing whether bits and pieces of Russia can/should be independent.

[Strongpoint]

Well, my initial message is relevant, any internal dissent in Russia, even a tiny one, matters.

However, the resulting discussion indicates that they have a long way to go when even anti-Putin opposition living in the exploited middle of Russian nowhere believe that mother Russia must stay intact