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[Strongpoint]

He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?

It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.

The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.

[Il Palazzo]

It might have become more contentious now, among those people who seriously entertain the possibility of Ukraine fighting the invasion off at least to the pre-February lines. And it's nice to imagine full-on defeat including retaking of Crimea and the ensuing collapse of Russia - as is occasionally done on this forum. In which case fuck 'im with a stick. But the idea that Putin should be given something to spin into a 'mission accomplished', so that he's not left with escalation as the only option, is more grounded in reality. It's what all those peace talks were about.

[brewer bob]

Putin has got an "off-ramp" far too many times during his reign. He must face the consequences, though I'm highly doubtful it will ever happen (and it certainly won't happen if we get more of what Macron is saying should be done).

[Strongpoint]

In other words, you need to give Putin a victory because victory is the only thing that can be presented as 'mission accomplished'.

And even if a Ukrainian counter-offensive fails (or never starts), if Russia will capture more of Ukrainian territory, even if Ukrainian army will collapse and stuff will degrade into a guerilla war... There still will be no place for "diplomatic solutions" and "off-ramps". Not only it means a genocide on whatever occupied territory "diplomats" offer to give up, it also means that humanity will receive a message "it is completely OK to wage a brutal war of conquest in 21th century if your country has nukes" and stuff will hit the fan hard.

[Il Palazzo]

I'm sure the job of deciding the peace terms should be left to the Ukrainian diplomacy, but I don't think they will ever demand unconditional surrender - which is what you're talking about.

[Quarque]

He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?

It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.

The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.

Removing Putin from power can't be done without starting a nuclear war. What if a revolution doesn't happen, but Ukraine regains all of the Donbass and Crimea? Would you still be against diplomacy with Putin?

[Strongpoint]

He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?

It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.

The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.

Removing Putin from power can't be done without starting a nuclear war. What if a revolution doesn't happen, but Ukraine regains all of the Donbass and Crimea? Would you still be against diplomacy with Putin?

I disagree that Putin can't be removed from power because I believe that part of Russian elites A) Don't want to die in a nuclear war B) Want Russia to continue to exist.


I don't think that Putin will accept any diplomacy in an event of such a catastrophic defeat as Ukraine recapturing Crimea, he'll either go total war or straight to nukes (and let's hope his orders won't be obeyed).

Putin is Hitler of the 21st century and this war won't end unless 1) He'll be confident he won this battle 2) He'll be removed from power 3)He'll commit suicide when enemy forces will approach his bunker in Ural mountains.

[Il Palazzo]

Seems more like a Mussolini to me.

[Strongpoint]

BTW, I don't believe that a possible summer offensive can kick Russians out no matter what some Ukrainian propaganda may say.

Liberation of the west bank of Dnipro, and a number of towns and villages in the Donbas and Kharkiv regions will be a good result. Should things go exceptionally well, a liberation\encirclement of Luhansk and\or Horlivka may happen, too

Liberating southern ports or assaulting Donetsk-Makiivka agglomeration are beyond the scope of anything Ukraine can field anytime soon. And moving into the fortress of Crimea... Assuming that it is possible in this year is delusional.

I am also less and less confident that this major summer offensive will indeed happen.

[brewer bob]

this war won't end unless 1) He'll be confident he won this battle 2) He'll be removed from power 3)He'll commit suicide when enemy forces will approach his bunker in Ural mountains.

I agree with this.

It's increasingly frustrating to watch how little Europe does to help, when certainly we should be doing more, even at the risk of causing energy shortages, economic depression or what not. Ukrainians are dying by the day, and it seems people are more concerned about how things will affect profits and getting things "back to how they were". You can't put a price on a human life (or, you can, but then you'll just be a dick) and no matter what, there won't be a return to the same kind of times as before the Russian invasion.

[Cathar]

Putin has got an "off-ramp" far too many times during his reign. He must face the consequences, though I'm highly doubtful it will ever happen (and it certainly won't happen if we get more of what Macron is saying should be done).

Macron is probably going to get a lot of flack for stating the obvious.
Yeah, sorry, we can't erase Russia from the map, we are going to have to deal with it, so maybe we can start building for peace now.

Also, what consequences ? We already seized their assets in Europe and US. Their army has been trashed, their credit score is lower than those of a  median income household, and half of their male population is missing a bodypart, that's consequences aplenty already. In the meantime, NATO was revived from the dead, gained two prospective members, and Ukraine is probably joining Europe too.

Putting Putin (haha) on trial would require to declare war on Russia, litterally nobody wants this, it's something we only do to small countries who can't defend themselves. And for no tangible benefit that we cannot achieve through diplomatic means.

Doing serious legwork is not as glamorous as going in cowboy style and bringing justice and democracy to Eurasia, certainly less macho, but franckly I'd take that option as soon as it's available.

Edit : Also, the war in Ukraine, as I see it, is the continuation of the Orange Revolution which is a transition from puppet state to actual democracy. This is why Ukraine must be protected at all costs. Ukraine wins, it's a successful long-term democratic transition secured, which is what we want. We have nothing to gain by attacking Russia.

[brewer bob]

Putting Putin (haha) on trial would require to declare war on Russia, litterally nobody wants this

That's one reason why I don't believe that he'll be held accountable in the end, no matter how much I wish to see Putin on trial.

[Stench Guzman]

How long until Poland invades western Ukraine to reclaim territory lost 100 years ago?

[Il Palazzo]

How long until Poland invades western Ukraine to reclaim territory lost 100 years ago?

It will never happen. The whole 'reclaiming Lviv' narrative is so absurd that it has to be originating from Russian troll farms. It fits nicely in the 'Ukraine shouldn't exist as all its territory was given to it from the land of its neighbours' angle.
In Poland there is zero sentiment towards any sort of territorial claims among the general populace or the ruling elites. The only people ever thinking about this are a handful of alopecia-afflicted extremists.
Also, WWII was more like 80 years ago.

[MaxTheFox]

Putin isn't getting a trial. Even if he is overthrown, the rebels will just summarily execute him. I know I would Nicholas II him.

Putin should not be negotiated with. Tire Russia out as much as possible.