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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support  (Read 137693 times)

brewer bob

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #195 on: April 26, 2022, 04:35:01 am »

*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.

Starver

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #196 on: April 26, 2022, 06:42:23 am »

Including the usual "accuse others of that which you do", c.f. any bad faith in negotiation or, you know, being the country that sent loads of weaponry to the Ukraine, in the form of the invasion, and even tried to deliver it to the sitting government and military - albeit in a "hot" manner, rather than ready for use by those who were to receive it.

(The most bang-for-their-buck[1], insofar as demilitarising Ukraine, would be to leave immediately and withdraw their direct support for the 'rebels'. Even if NATO/EU/etc supporters continued to send 'defensive' materielle for a while, there'd be a net lowering of militarism, and probably also right-wingedness. Pipe-dreams, of course, as it'd never be done by those who have already staked so much on their now missed outcome, and kept on raising the ante just to avoid the climb-down.)

I might be wary of provoking the Russian leadership into greater things (hi Vlad, if you're reading this... What are your thoughts on the eventual Steam release? ...assuming you can still get access to Steam, right?) by being so provocative, but really if the future of world peace or otherwise turns on how how I phrase the following then chaos is already the dominant determinant. So, frankly, you lot failed in your militaristic manouvering for political gain, this was never a zero-sum game and you just made the net outcome worse for everyone when you had it in your power to make things at least a little bit better for most and (at least until the next bright-spark placed and lit various touch-papers) somewhat better for your own people, whether they immediately realised it or not. But, psychologically, it seems like that your position in power attracts your kind of tunnel-vision. Not that this is unusual in leaderships, we've got a doozy in the UK right now who is scrabbling to remain in power, but at least he need not fear a bloody-coup, and I appreciate that your nightmare is that if you ever back away from power with a breath still left in your body then you'll be subject to the whims of whatever Bigger Bastard somehow managed to usurp you, all because that's the system you yourself proliferated in and you couldn't work out any alternative. But you're weak, the way you rely upon your strength, it's not a bonus but a self-reinforced trap of your own design and if you had the guts that you pretend to have (with your escalating hints at WW3, etc) you'd have reshaped the system where your peaceful retirement isn't contingent upon being seen as Benevolent Sun God of the New Russian Empire, but rather that more tricky and nuanced of things as a true statesman and founding-father of a truly more enlightened age, which you seemed to part bring into being, since the fall of your beloved faux-communistic era, and yet failed to do so because of your seemingly magnetic attraction to One Man One Vote where you are that very man, and no other.

No, you're doomed. Either by your hand or by others'. Perhaps both. When can see from history that totalitarianism ends in failure and/or death (non-totalitarianism tends to end in lesser degrees of failure and usually defers the death to when it might have happened anyway, so long as it doesn't end in totalitarianism). Depending upon your views on the afterlife (I don't think you believe as much as you present as believing), this course probably isn't good for your immortal soul. Or, as I'm not convinced much by that kind of thing, your final moments of awareness.

And I'm convinced that you are doing this because of your perceived mortality. Some health scare? Realisation that there is finite time left and still things to do before being as venerated as you would like to think you will be, once it is beyond your power to influence or appreciate such matters? So you bet big on double-zero, thinking you'd sufficiently fixed the wheel, but the ball bounced elsewhere, and you'll be lucky if it lands on a side-bet before the thing stops spinning and bouncing. Sucks to be you. Isn't brilliant to be me, but at least I don't have your kind of insecurities. If I believed in blessings, that would be part of mine.


(Darn, this started out as the cold-logic of the first two paragraphs, but it seemed to go steeply into the emotional category... *checks* yep, right place for it ...from the next bit onwards. No actual wishing of death, as my non-beliefs tend to reason against such things in ways that a true-belief might not, but really I think you made a mistake starting The Great Idiotic War[2], Vladimir Vladimirovich, if you want this person's opinion, and I can probably be uncontested in saying that you either will live to regret it or you won't, no matter what personal influnce I might have on things.)

Yeah. So that's said. Back to the jolly stuff, everyone! As you were...



[1] Or, if they prefer, their still rather suppressed rouble..?

[2] I spent some time on Google Translate, a couple of months ago, looking for a good in-language pun on Вели́кая Оте́чественная война́ to reflect that sentiment, but I couldn't find words of apparently sufficient assonance, rhyme or alliteration for my largely cyrillically-naïve eye to determine as workable, but I'm sure there's some clever subversive wordplay possible that Max/etc would appreciate. I'm obviously not the right writer for that meme, though.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #197 on: April 27, 2022, 01:03:48 am »

BBC reports that explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod.

Quote from: BBC
Explosions reportedly heard in Russian city

Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.

On social media app Telegram, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he was woken at around 03:35 on Wednesday by the sound of an explosion.

He said that while drafting his social media post he heard another three loud booms.

Gladkov later said preliminary reports indicated an ammunition depot was on fire in a rural settlement, and "no casualties among the civilian population" had been reported.

Russians really should stop smoking. It is getting expensive; Flagship, oil depots, ammunition depots...
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EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #198 on: April 27, 2022, 01:25:19 pm »

I think they have to keep blowing up their own stuff until their black market deals are all covered up.

"What Ammo/Fuel/etc? Domestic terrorists destroyed it all!  Now, if you excuse me, I have to get back to my Vodka & Caviar..."

I actually wished I could believe that political dissidents were responsible in Russia.

hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #199 on: April 27, 2022, 01:47:14 pm »

Why is the first thing you apparently do when you hear an explosion as an official to draft a social media post?
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nenjin

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #200 on: April 27, 2022, 01:50:31 pm »

Why is the first thing you apparently do when you hear an explosion as an official to draft a social media post?

Because it's the fastest way to reach people, versus an official press release or state media?
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #201 on: April 27, 2022, 04:39:31 pm »

I think they have to keep blowing up their own stuff until their black market deals are all covered up.

"What Ammo/Fuel/etc? Domestic terrorists destroyed it all!  Now, if you excuse me, I have to get back to my Vodka & Caviar..."

I actually wished I could believe that political dissidents were responsible in Russia.

Some of these explosions are really, really deep inside. Probably too far for Ukraine to hit except with their very limited supply of SRBMs. Incompetence or partisan activity seem like the likeliest explanations.
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nenjin

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #202 on: April 27, 2022, 04:54:25 pm »

If Putin really decides to start a nuclear war, the odds are the first launch will just blow up over Russia, because everything they do is held together with twist ties and machismo.
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Cautivo del Milagro seamos, Penitente.
Quote from: Viktor Frankl
When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
Quote from: Sindain
Its kinda silly to complain that a friendly NPC isn't a well designed boss fight.
Quote from: Eric Blank
How will I cheese now assholes?
Quote from: MrRoboto75
Always spaghetti, never forghetti

hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #203 on: April 27, 2022, 06:23:05 pm »

Why is the first thing you apparently do when you hear an explosion as an official to draft a social media post?

Because it's the fastest way to reach people, versus an official press release or state media?

As opposed to figuring out what the explosions were caused by and what the response should be? :p
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #204 on: April 27, 2022, 11:02:59 pm »

If Putin really decides to start a nuclear war, the odds are the first launch will just blow up over Russia, because everything they do is held together with twist ties and machismo.

Problem is that if even only 10% of Russian nukes will work as intended, it will be enough
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Starver

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #205 on: April 28, 2022, 12:05:49 am »

If even 10% of the missiles are seen to be launched (i.e. don't just inertly wallow in their silos, or possibly messily blow up in them with their bunker-lids rusted closed above them due to scandalously bad maintenence regimes), there's probably going to be a response initiated before anyone gets a good enough count on how many of those launches didn't even make it to the Karman Line for full intercontinental and/or FOBS deployment.

I wouldn't be surprised if US imagery weren't capable of detecting the simultaneous opening of sufficient of the known hard-based silo hatches. And if mobile launchers set themselves up to launch en-mass I don't think that'll go unspotted, while for any Russian boomers out there, expect any respective assigned trailing US subs to Flash a message about a 'training scenario' which Langley/NORAD/whoever will collate with other observations.  It might not be quick enough to get a hotline call in to double-check it isn't an unannounced exercise (and an unannounced exercise of sufficient scope would be foolhardy - we've nearly had that kind of misinterpretation in times past!) but it would be plenty quick enough to prevent a mass first-strike from ending up unopposed by sheer credulity.


What could sneak under the radar (literally, as well as figuratively) is a low number (handfull, at most) of those hypersonic semi-/partial-orbital missiles sent to London/Washington/wherever, perhaps timed well to avoid the periods of densest military-imagery overview until they're well on their way. And, being their new pride-and-joy equipment, less likely to be suffering neglect (if not hampered by corruption in the recent assembly process) so might actually work as intended. But if they even deliver decapitating nuclear strikes on heads/seats of government, we all know that Cheyenne Mountain or the UK's Letters Of Last Resort are going to be untouched enough to (if it's at all their current policy) return the favour with interest.


I can't really see a winning scenario for anybform of threatened deployment. It's overkill (even if conventional/inert-but-kinetic payload) to spark up the futuristic missile system to bombard Ukraine as a "lesson" to everyone else, because it expends the fancy stuff on what the non-fancy stuff has already been doing. And non-conventional use means stepping over a line that is only marginally less likely to provoke some more direct 'limited exchange' response that could even involve the Kremlin and/or select dachas being smeared out, but certainly at least one major Russian military base with acceptably few civilians close by.

...well, it's hard to predict what is actually in the various response-policies of the NATO/western systems, but if the US restrains itself (say), there'd be the UK, France, etc, and who knows how China will react (or not). If Putin already thinks the whole world is against him, the psychology to keep pushing further into actual deployment seems to suggest he does not have a fall-back position, only a fall-out one. It'd be a wild ride, and I don't care how many dimensions the chessboard has, the only winning move really is not to play.

(In short, it's either a big bluff or I can see no practical escape from the doom it unleashes. I'd probably bet on it being the former, if only because the future me who might still be capable of collecting upon the latter option coming true is perhaps also simultaneously less fussed about having been right or wrong in such an armchair prediction made in the times before The Event.)
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Quarque

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #206 on: April 28, 2022, 06:41:47 am »

*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Really hope you guys are right.  :-\
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Madman198237

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #207 on: April 28, 2022, 08:54:45 am »

I wouldn't be surprised if US imagery weren't capable of detecting the simultaneous opening of sufficient of the known hard-based silo hatches.

US satellite photoreconnaissance can definitely determine that; the resolution is that good. The only question is whether they'd receive the images before the missiles launch and are detected by radar and the like. Presumably it doesn't take that long to launch a missile after opening such silos given the need to be able to launch missiles within about 30-45 minutes after the enemy launches theirs, since any missile still in its silo when a hostile nuke hits will be going nowhere. Do remember that the US and presumably other NATO nations do have the capability to detect any missiles launched from Russia and attempt to intercept them. I don't know how many missiles we could conceivably intercept and I don't know the effectiveness of the interceptors against ballistic missiles, though it should be very high given their performance against non-nuclear targets in the Gulf War and such).

*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Really hope you guys are right.  :-\
Either the people calling the bluff are right and the war will end without any potential worldwide destruction, or they're not and we have no choice but to continue as we have been to deny Russia any benefits from its aggression. There is no way for the rest of the world to back out of this conflict without unacceptable consequences. Consequences like "every two-bit dictator or rogue state with a handful of nukes can invade everybody around them without fear".
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MaxTheFox

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #208 on: April 28, 2022, 09:59:40 am »

Yep. As much as I wouldn't like to, we have to take the risk, or it's giving Putin and other dictators with nukes a blank check to invade their neighbors without consequences. This would kill Taiwan.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2022, 11:06:21 am by MaxTheFox »
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #209 on: April 28, 2022, 10:40:14 am »

*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Really hope you guys are right.  :-\

Oh, I am nervous, believe me. Ukraine is the first target for nukes and use of tactical nukes is way more likely than ICBM... Russia is losing this war. Their state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.

Russian propaganda is actively normalizing the use of nukes and it is freaking scary. USSR always had anti-nuclear war propaganda, it was unthinkable to even suggest that USSR may use nukes in any other way but for a retaliatitory strike.


One of the oddities of this war is Ukrainian forces stopping on the Russian border... If we could pursue the troops that were retreating from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the war would be going very differently, Russian front would collapse, there would be chaos in their logistics, their forces in Donbass would risk encirclement and Ukraine would occupy few Russian cities.

Nukes is what prevented this scenario from becoming reality...
« Last Edit: April 28, 2022, 10:49:08 am by Strongpoint »
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