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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 110920 times)

ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1020 on: October 25, 2021, 04:07:55 pm »

Vector, we don't know how the mafia team works. There are multiple reasons why a quickhammer hasn't happened.

My family is bothering me but I'm still going through NJW. I promise to finish these in a reasonable time.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1021 on: October 25, 2021, 04:09:58 pm »

Right now the vote is NJW by Roden, Toony by Vector.

... You do know that isn't hammer range right? We need 3 to hammer. That's only hammer if Toony has a partner.

If it's NJW, still not hammer.

And how about no? Why are you so desperate to hammer us Vector?



Nin. Also I am starting to suspect my inspect was messed with from day 1.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1022 on: October 25, 2021, 04:13:29 pm »

If there is a 1P scumteam, this probably isn't LaunchLO.
Toony is more dangerous and slippery as scum than either of NJW and Roden. Roden remains my #2 pick.
... NJW, Toony, Vector, can we all agree on Roden? f it's one person, this isn't LYLO. If it's two, it most certainly is.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1023 on: October 25, 2021, 04:17:11 pm »

We still have some time. I'm going to read through the thread one last time, but my position is the same: Toony or Roden, largely on reads and wagon.
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One wheel short of a wagon

Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1024 on: October 25, 2021, 04:23:17 pm »

... You do know that isn't hammer range right? We need 3 to hammer. That's only hammer if Toony has a partner.

It's hammerable if Toony ISN'T scum and there's a 2P scumteam.

As for why I'm agitated: I'm feeling impatient I guess, I want to get things wrapped up and learn the truth. Welcome to Vector's Other Mode 9_9
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1025 on: October 25, 2021, 04:33:00 pm »

Right, I'm just voting Roden now. I'd vote you, but best to hit as many checks as possible.

Nothing can ever be simple, can it...
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1026 on: October 25, 2021, 05:38:43 pm »

The Life of NJW

Day 1

#676 - RVS questions: focuses on Roden, Jack, and Vector. Pokes at Web.

#723 - Responds to some questions, the notable parts are heavily suspecting Tric for claiming Parity Cop and giving the stink eye to Roden for claiming Jailor under the Captain.

Ever since Day 1 I've still been a bit suspicious of NJW wanting to kill one of the cop claims. I think that's a pretty scum thing to do as I definitely would want to try to do that as mafia.

#755 - NJW gives their reads and votes Tric. Roden was their top town read as well.

So here NJW goes from suspecting Roden to plopping them at the top of the town reads, which Jack immediately finds odd.

#772 - NJW continues to attack Tric.

#812 - NJW responding to stuff. Defends Max a bit from Jack and Web. Continues to push for Tric: "Ok, not even a desultory gesture towards a Tric lynch, we're just letting players build up a meta for scum-sided play on the assumption that they're easily read. No way that could go wrong."

#819 - Arguing with Web.

#829 - Arguing with Web more.

#836 - Gives a warning they don't think Jack is scum but will vote him if necessary. Also gives reasons why they think Max are town.

Their reasons for why they think Max are town look genuine.

#838 - More arguing with Web. Votes Jack here saying they don't think they're scum but think me and Roden have a better read on Jack.

This vote looks really bad to me. It's the third vote on Jack after me and Roden voted him and they give the excuse they don't even think Jack is mafia which is perfect if Jack is town like he was.

#840 - Gives more reasons for why Max is likely town. Goes to bed.



Working on Day 2 but I want to get this out for now. I really don't think I'll have time to do Roden today I ended up doing family stuff today and I just don't have time which fucking sucks because I want to be here. I will vote today. It doesn't look like Tric is voting with Vector, but I will still vote with Tric before day end.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1027 on: October 25, 2021, 06:02:21 pm »

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW
Reminder that NJW was not able to dispute this and didn't even try. Instead, he repeatedly tries to misrep me and my emotional state, twisting my aggressive play into some kind of attack on him. Yet, he can't disprove the facts of what I've said.

If this is indisputable then it has to mean that I'm town.
Tric, find the hole in my logic.
Take That!
At work so I can't make a long post until later tonight, but I already explained what Repel does.

Night 2, I used my Repel and prevented Tric from being able to interact with NJW. I actually misread it and thought I would be the reverse since I was trying to protect Tric, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It's essentially a one-way target-specific role block.

https://youtu.be/YDcvkQ3_Ibc

One way and target specific. Which would work on multiple targets. Right now, you can Deny interactions with a player. But this doesn't stop them from making their own actions, it's one way. As a result, Toony's Action Failed. Now, who here has that ability?

In this case, it's you, or Toony is lying. However, NJW targeted Web.  In order for a kill to go through, he would need to be blocked. But he hasn't claimed such a thing. So, under these conditions, how did web die?

Let's look at the order of claims.

TricMagic, Did Nothing.[See this as me being Mafia if you like for the purpose of deduction.]
NJW: Deflection: Web to Toony.
Addendum: I wasn't told I was roleblocked. Could have been a redirect, that's pretty interfering.
Why is Web dead and not me then? Your claim doesn't make sense. FoU stated at the end of D2 that redirects are told to the person being redirected.

Roden: Ordered to Target Tric by Web. Claims Repel, preventing others from interacting with me. Note this does not reflect actions, simply causes them to fail. [Hypothosis: By nature, it's priority is higher than any other currently active. Only the Commuter would be higher.]

ToonyMan: Attempted to check NJW, Action Failed.

Vector: Gave Watcher Invention to Roden.[Roden claims this before Vector. Only applicable in a Vector/Roden team, otherwise truth.]

No actions currently known could bypass NJW's Reflection, but for Strogman that NJW brought up early on before any other claims were made. But for argument, he also said Roden would interfered. But there wasn't an Action Failed, so this isn't true if they aren't the same alignment.

In this case, Toony has to be lying about his role. But here is the kicker. Toony was the first person to really claim today. Not later. Not even after info had popped up. This would be the long con, and he'd need to have a second ability.
Under what conditions could Toony kill Web? Not alone unless it is a Strongman case. Together, it would be Roden. And here is the first nail awaiting your coffin.

Moving on, me. The exact same applies, except I've been lying about Parity from the beginning. This is one possibility. I'm actually very likely to have been able to kill webadict in that case. Nail here happens to be this is literally the first time I've heard of Parity, it's not something I'd come up with on my own. In this case, it's more likely to be true. Toony could search for town guns, while I searched for Mafia Allies. But then, why would web die? The answer is, he wouldn't. We would have just stuck to cover till we found our ally, or shot Vector instead, securing our victory. There are currently no circumstances where this sequence of events is false. No one protected Vector last night. Therefore, it is FALSE by default, for it didn't happen.

Next, NJW. In this case, he simply killed Web alone. However, Toony's ability wouldn't have failed. This would imply an extra power to him.
However, this is the second nail. Roden, you, would have just the ability to manage that. And your claim time fits too. No one is left who can confrim your action against me, and Vector had already given you the invention, so you knew what he did. One can't take the chance your single gun is noticed.

Vector next. Not much here, my ability would have needed to be messed with, or he's a godfather. The latter is unlikely given my one-shot nature. So in any team he's mafia, so are you. This, however, is unlikely.

Roden: Interference, brainwashing, redirection, repulsion, roleblocking, JOAT. You handed NJW the gun he killed with, with him none the wiser. You did not roleblock the first night. This is a far out theory however, as you'd need to be solo. Though having a secondary action  might help with that, it's unlikely.
Funnily enough, you are well suited to negating the protection on web, or blocking abilities and results, hence reducing the info town has.


... 1 shot, 1 guarantee of victory. But only 1 mafia and 1 mafia ally. Or, 2 mafia allies and 1 mafia. Or perhaps, an even-day factional kill to balance the setup a bit more. Either way, all roads lead to Ro(me)den.


The issue is this entire setup is a mess. Toony would need to be strongarm and acting alone for you not to be mafia of some stripe. In order for any case where you are town, mafia must be acting alone, not together with allies. That's the only result that makes sense. And if Mafia is acting alone, then they'd die tomorrow either way. And in every case where Mafia are 2, you are the other. The only other case is me being mafia.
Tric, you're actually driving me insane here. You didn't address my argument at all. Not even a little bit. You just went off on an unrelated tangent and I don't even know why. Your entire post is speculation and does nothing to challenge the things I said that are guaranteed facts.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1028 on: October 25, 2021, 06:08:09 pm »

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW
I will self-vote if somebody can actually prove this is incorrect. I'm beyond frustrated at this point. Every single bit of suspicion towards me has been speculation without a single shred of hard proof to back it up and I'm kind of over it.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1029 on: October 25, 2021, 06:13:31 pm »

Tric am I playing at all like I was when we were scum together? You've all seen my scum game and this isn't it. I feel like everyone's screwing with me at this point because I'm actually trying to solve and NJW is blatantly refusing to do anything to figure out who's scum.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1030 on: October 25, 2021, 06:16:25 pm »

... What FACTS. You can't block both of them., that makes you town? More likely that one of them isn't in the first place.

Also, you use ordered in your argument. Web is dead, and if the setup is 2 mafia, they would have a nerf so they and the ally don't win n2. An Even-Night Kill makes sense, or even just not being able to kill N1.

Scenario 2, you bring up multitasking in order to kill. But the Factional Nightkill isn't under orders from the captain. Something you just plain ignore in this scenario. Look at Max, he's a commuter. Therefore your ability wouldn't have procced on him anyway. I can go back and see what order you web and Max claimed in, and I'll bet I'll see you after them all.

Last. If you are an ally, and not the Mafia, you didn't perform the kill. As ally, your actions make less sense. As Mafia, your actions make more sense, as web is dangerous to leave alive, and you'd have no reason to not use deflection or your JOAT ability. Not doing so would be suspicious so long as web yet lived. So Mafia killed them.



It's nothing personal Roden. Also, you were gone for most of that, so that's not really something I can rely on here. If it's 1 mafia, your roleflip will catch them. If it's 2 mafia, you are the only link that makes sense.

More specifically, you can mess with bodyguards, cops, deflectors, and even inventors. Why would town need a JOAT like you? You just muddy the waters, and your Repel is perfect for the result Toony got.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 2): We Are Left With Our Ashes
« Reply #1031 on: October 25, 2021, 06:24:40 pm »

Ok, looks like some claims may be in order, as the scumkill seems to have failed. We may be able to build up a picture of the night. I am a captain restricted deflector. I can choose my second target but my first is chosen for me.

I deflected Webadict onto MaximumSpin.
Ok, looks like some claims may be in order, as the scumkill seems to have failed. We may be able to build up a picture of the night. I am a captain restricted deflector. I can choose my second target but my first is chosen for me.

I deflected Webadict onto MaximumSpin.
Aye. I did warn ye Mafia not to kill me. Now look whatcha gone an' done!

Yarrr... I be a One-shot Roleblocker Captain. Me crew consists of a Jailer... Nah, I'll let you claim as ye want, but this be a lie (Roden, the ship "doctor"), a 50% Inventor (Vector, me best cannoneer), and a Deflector (NJW2000, me first mate).

During the day, I can set the course for me crews' ships. And once at Night, I can lock onna ye in the brig!

T'prove I be a scurvy sea dog, I sent me best men... er, sea dogs... to come test their metal against yer's truly! Needed to prove which o' ye were truly up ter the task of sailin' me ship! NJW2000 passed th' bar with flyin' colors. Tha' should prove the lad's greener'n seaweed.

So, either Maximum Spin be Kill-Immune, or Roden may be yer savior, ya harr.
Interesting.

I happen to be a commuter. I didn't do anything in the night, nor did I receive anything, unless some weird flavour about sitting in a room with chips and a book was supposed to indicate something. I am not entirely sure how this resolves the webadict-centred action web.

Vector/TMag is a highly plausible scum pairing - Vector knows TM's play well enough to coach him. This could, therefore, be a plan to appear to clear Vector by getting me lynched, since they would know I am town. This would be easy enough to pull off that it's an extremely sensible plan.

I am going to hold back on voting until I hear more results from people.

YEEEEP(ops the p).


For reference.

Right. I checked Vector and it was negative so no guns on them at least.
Right. I checked Vector and it was negative so no guns on them at least.
K, I'm a 1-shot Parity Cop, rather than the other one. I check Two target's auras rather than 1. And I can confirm Vector and Max Spin have the Same Alignment.

In other news, if you don't believe me, lynch me. Or I'm a multiple, but what would be the balance in that?

That said, someone in the Captain's list is a traitor.
Right after Web, before Max.

Ok, I think we caught scum.

Last night I was ordered to target Web. I did, and chose to Jail him. However, I actually got a results PM that told me that I screwed up and Jailed Max instead. With no kill happening, it leads me to believe Max made the NK and that I stopped him. I just don't think scum would've targeted him, so I don't think I protected him. Though if NJW's Deflect also affects kill actions, that would explain why there wasn't a kill, since I would be protecting someone who became the NK target.

The Commuter claim has to be a lie though because Tric has results on Max and NJW seems to have successfully Deflected me onto Max. Toony's claim that Vector doesn't have a gun is Strange though, if both Max and Vector are scum. It's possible we have a scum Inventor who has to hand out guns to town who they believe will misfire at night, I suppose. Maybe that's what the Gunsmith is for?
And you are last, besides Vector. Why, what a perfect time to make your claim.

What was my point again?
Ah, right. Web only claimed he was the captain on Day 2! Not 1. Up till that point, you had to deal with the chance of a town captain, so doing something completely different night one could have screwed you over pretty badly.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1032 on: October 25, 2021, 06:42:15 pm »

I have to keep deleting what I type. You're seriously tilting me and I need to just step away.
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1033 on: October 25, 2021, 06:55:57 pm »

Does it say something We're 3 hours from the end of the day.
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NJW2000

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R3, Day 3): Anchor Adrift
« Reply #1034 on: October 25, 2021, 07:03:36 pm »

Does it say something We're 3 hours from the end of the day.
A few more minutes. Long post soon, then we'll settle on an elimination target.
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One wheel short of a wagon
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