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[Roden]

@Roden:

So, we have a bit of a problem here, Tric and Vector. Toony and NJW both think I'm scum. They haven't really given a reason as to why I'm scum, but alright, they both suspect me.

...Why don't they suspect each other? They both have each other as a possible pairing with me, but they aren't actually considering that I could be town and the other the true scum. We've had two days in a row where we thought the scum team was obvious, but then turned out to be wrong, yet they both think third time's the charm and want to vote who they think is the obvious choice again?

I think you're both scum dude. I wouldn't say Day 1 was obvious, I was wrong about Jack and the thread had been swaying between Max and Web. And for Day 2 we had an alignment check from Tric on the top two most suspicious players at the time.

Then vote NJW.

So why did Toony's and NJW's night actions not work? And why don't they suspect each other?

I do suspect NJW! I think he's distancing from you!!

So you're both accusing me of distancing from the other and also that the other is distancing from me. Do you realize how ridiculous this sounds? You're both fake distancing from me lol.

Likelihoods:

Vector/Tric - possible
Vector/Roden - not possible
Vector/NJW - not possible

Tric/Roden - possible
Tric/NJW - unlikely

Roden/NJW - possible

I have to decide between voting Tric or Roden.

This especially looks awful, seeing as Toony had the most to gain from disabling all of the remaining roles in the game if he'd happened to be town.

If Web was my ally why would I fuck myself by killing him?? How would I have killed him unless I'm working with NJW??

Mafia team doesn't know who the ally is. And I do think both of you being the mafia team is a legitimate possibility, but I think between the two of you that NJW is more likely to be mafia in the case of a 1 mafia + one ally set up.

Roden, between the two of you there's a higher probability you're mafia over NJW. This is the only reason why I would vote you over NJW.

Web hid info about your role. He forced Vector to give you stuff or do nothing at all. Which worked since Vector did seem to comply.

What makes me have a higher probability of being mafia over NJW?

Web hiding info about my role doesn't make me scum. Mafia can lie about town, you know this.

[Roden]

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW

[Roden]

You had me up to voting NJW first. They are equally dangerous. But Roden's flip gives a lot of info for day 3. I'm likely to end up dead, or Vector's going to end up dead. Not that either matters given how we'll know exactly what happened.

This especially looks awful, seeing as Toony had the most to gain from disabling all of the remaining roles in the game if he'd happened to be town.

Question, when was it brought up that the captain's death would disable the remaining rolls? And what would he gain from it any other mafia wouldnt'?

Somebody posted the wiki link for it. Toony being one of the few players not restricted by a Captain and still getting to keep his ability regardless of Web's alignment seems like a pretty obvious benefit.

[TricMagic]

You had me up to voting NJW first. They are equally dangerous. But Roden's flip gives a lot of info for day 3. I'm likely to end up dead, or Vector's going to end up dead. Not that either matters given how we'll know exactly what happened.

Okay, how about this: I'll go through this round and pick out everything I see on rereading. I'm busy tonight, but I'll be good tomorrow for us to crack this.

After that Tric I give you my vote. Who you vote I'll vote. Vector suspects me because of Web, but I have to convince them as well or else it's over. I was thinking Vector could make you a gun, but NJW could deflect it to themselves if they're alive.

I already gave Vector my vote though. So now Vector has 3 votes.

[TricMagic]

snip

K, this is fun. To address the Roden/TricMagic team, we would definitely have to have learned from our previous mistakes.

However, the clencher is you're not suspecting a Roden/Toony team here. You're actively suspecting the less likely option. Despite the fact Roden is the most likely option for web to have died. Roden would have to actively be lying to have messed with Toony/Web as well. Which isn't townie at all. In every case but a NJW/Toony team, Roden is the mafia. And as soon as he flips, you will be exposed as well. Which is why him flipping is game over for you.

[TricMagic]

Though I will admit suspecting me is proper if you truely believe Roden to be town. Which you haven't stated.(At least not so clearly it's stood out to me. You're distancing instead.)

[NJW2000]

snip

K, this is fun. To address the Roden/TricMagic team, we would definitely have to have learned from our previous mistakes.

However, the clencher is you're not suspecting a Roden/Toony team here. You're actively suspecting the less likely option. Despite the fact Roden is the most likely option for web to have died. Roden would have to actively be lying to have messed with Toony/Web as well. Which isn't townie at all. In every case but a NJW/Toony team, Roden is the mafia. And as soon as he flips, you will be exposed as well. Which is why him flipping is game over for you.

Currently buying into the Toony/Roden possibility pretty hard.

Clincher. And no, I do not think Roden is town. I pretty much say that in the exact post you quoted, so I don't know what's going on there. Breakdown of communication, I guess. Just because I mention the possibility that you're scum doesn't mean I think it's the most likely one. Please read carefully.


The hell with trying to solve this game. There's a massive volume of incomplete and unreliable information to deal with here. I'd have to singlehandedly figure out why the night was so screwy just to clear my name, with an insanely wide space of possible actions and fakeclaims in thread. Vector hammers and potentially gives out guns, but them being scum appears to implicate like two other people, so I have to work out how I feel about that. Tric is Tric. FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

Roden and Toony are dodgy as all get out and also defend/townread one another hard early on, which is pretty much in their meta. Roden is furiously attacking me in a way that comes across as careless and desperate, while Toony may have been communicating in thread with Wuba. They also completely failed to read EuchreJack correctly if town, which I'm just not sure Toony would do, and are buddying Tric.

Tric feels fairly town, I guess - if they're scum, then some strong players like Toony or Vec must have been misreading them this game, as they can't all three be scum. Vector isn't as aggressively dismissive as they usually are as mafia, although I guess I can't expect to read them in a game they're putting consistent effort into. An accidental hammer doesn't seem like scum!Vector playstyle. So I'm reasonably happy with these two as townreads. Well played if they're scum, I guess.

So yeah, I'll be voting Toony or Roden, whoever is more likely. Not giving anyone my vote per se, but two votes on either of them and I'll be very happy to make it three once the day gets closer to the end.

Spoiler: replies to Roden, probably pointless even in the marginal case he's town (click to show/hide)

Uh, is this a TMI slip? What makes you think we have two mafia and an ally?

Mafia+mafia ally vs 6 town is insanely town-sided, even given Web's position.

What? What are you referencing with cherrypicking?

Your claim that the wiki says strongman can't get around redirects, obviously.

Is this what you truly believe to be Web's master plan...?

Presumably mafia either screwed up or were screwed over by me. I have no idea what went on in the night, so I really don't "truly believe" anything at all about it.

Besides, if your D2 claims are to be believed, Web's "master plan" N1 was to create as much chaos as possible by having as many people as possible target him with actions not even he could control. So even you have to admit that Web is more of a Nolan-style Joker than a Machiavellian schemer.

Also that trade is crazy weighted against me no matter Web's alignment, wtf are you talking about? You just claimed Web could force the Captain subordinates to act in a way to benefits me as mafia, so why would I kill him? The more you try to push me here, the less your accusation makes sense.

If you thought Web was town, it's obviously in your interest to kill him in order to kill town and end town power roles. From scum's POV, best town roleblocker is a dead town roleblocker and best gunsmith cop, inventor and deflector are ability-less gunsmith cops, inventors, you get the idea. This is very simple.

I'm sorry, what? How do posts not reflect intentions? That's literally how you're supposed to read people, wtf.

It's clear from the context that I meant if you're scum, you're given to misrepresenting your intentions in the thread. Stop with this silly grapeshot, it's making the thread uglier and convincing nobody.

[TricMagic]

... Where is everyone? Pretty sure the day ends tonight.

Also, if both of you agree it's Roden, why not vote Roden?

[Vector]

You had me up to voting NJW first. They are equally dangerous. But Roden's flip gives a lot of info for day 3. I'm likely to end up dead, or Vector's going to end up dead. Not that either matters given how we'll know exactly what happened.

Okay, how about this: I'll go through this round and pick out everything I see on rereading. I'm busy tonight, but I'll be good tomorrow for us to crack this.

I'm looking forward to your reread.

... Where is everyone? Pretty sure the day ends tonight.

I'm planning to vote Toonyman in a few hours. I agree that Roden is fumbling a bit but:

If there's a 2P scumteam, I strongly believe that Toony is on it.
I don't believe that Tric is scum. I don't believe that the team could possibly be Roden/NJW.
If there is a 1P scumteam, this probably isn't LaunchLO.
Toony is more dangerous and slippery as scum than either of NJW and Roden. Roden remains my #2 pick.

[TricMagic]

I'll say that's likely the wrong pick, but okay? Even though Toony shouldn't have been able to slip past NJW to kill web.

[ToonyMan]

I'm here I'm doing a post on NJW first and then Roden second.

[ToonyMan]

In the meantime:

Vector even if you think I'm more dangerous as a player we'll lose if NJW and Roden are both mafia.

It's very unlikely this game is only one mafia and one ally.

1. N1 didn't have a discernible kill because Max didn't use his commute, why? The only death at night has been an ally. This is indicative that mafia are restricted in the first place.
2. Too many players are lying. At least two players are lying.

[Roden]

There is one inarguable, undisputed truth that proves that I'm not lying here. Both Toony and NJW are claiming somebody screwed with their results, and it's 100% impossible for me to have somehow blocked both of them. We know for a fact that at least one of them has to be lying. And we know for a fact that I can't be a killer due to the Night 1 outcome.

Say the set up is 2 mafia + 1 ally. I target Web and Jail him, as ordered. This leaves my scum buddy free to perform the NK, and they know not to target Web because I let them know I'm Jailing him. Yet nobody dies.

Scenario 2. 1 mafia + 1 ally. I would have to have Multitasking as a passive in order to kill and follow my orders. I know I'm Jailing Web, so I would target somebody else. Yet, nobody dies.

Finally, why do I ever kill Web when Vector is confirmed to be aligned with Town due to Tric's Parity check? Why risk killing a potential ally? Why not endgame the town Night 1? Why not kill a Cop claim who might check me and out me as mafia?

Just look at the facts, and you know I can't be mafia. It has to be either NJW, Toony, or both of them, and town wins by voting there no matter what.

NJW

Reminder that NJW was not able to dispute this and didn't even try. Instead, he repeatedly tries to misrep me and my emotional state, twisting my aggressive play into some kind of attack on him. Yet, he can't disprove the facts of what I've said.

If this is indisputable then it has to mean that I'm town.

[Vector]

It's very unlikely this game is only one mafia and one ally.

If we have a Town Vigilante who can only kill if given orders by a Captain, I would humbly suggest Not Killing, as knowing our devious GM FallacyofUrist, pulling that string by a Mafia Captain might be the mafia's only NK.

Also, we should consider with 8 players that the mafia team might be more than 2 mafia.  Maybe not 3 full mafia, but probably a 3rd player that can win with mafia somehow.  We won't know until it is over.

There's no way it's 3 mafia. Even two mafia plus ally seems like too much.

This you?

[Vector]

Anyway, I have work to do and I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is.

ToonyMan.