The part I was sure about yesterday was we were heading for a town-lynch with webadict being the only target. I wanted to avoid that because I recognised that structure. As I said at the time, it was the same pattern as the Toony lynch in BYOR15. The bit I was weaker on was who was the best target to switch over to.
I take full responsibility for building up the Caz wagon, being the 3rd on it. After wuba's prompting, I thought Caz was a good pick. But my analysis was bad.
Why was my analysis bad? Well, as players who've played with me before know, I take an analytical approach to mafia but I don't have a single technique. Because clever scum players can just tailor their style to what they know I'm looking for (a scum!4maskwolf explicitly did this in at least one game I played) I have to do two things:
- Not telegraph what approaches I'm using ahead of time
- Develop new techniques
The trouble with developing new techniques is that they can fail. It turns out town players who post a lot of low-info posts can very well be town.
One of my tried-and-tested methods is looking for the top poster, and that was in fact Wuba yesterday. The top poster, as a long-range study of past games has shown, is almost never scum: the reason being is that the person most invested in the game is rarely the person trying to hide themselves.
I think it's clear that 6-poster
Juicebox is a good candidate for lynch today, especially as they seemed to have performed a rarely-seen-in-the-wild scumslip with their "chat" reference. I think we should also be wary of thinking we have the game down pat and under-exploring the options. Some possibilities:
- One of the mason teams is just straight up an SK, mafia, or half-SK team. We know Vector had a protect and jailkeep, so the lack of two kills last night isn't that extraordinary. Shadow immediately foreclosing that possibility in their first post of the day is a bit eyebrow raising.
- There's a two-person mafia team + mafia ally. One of the early claimers may well be the ally hoping to soak up attention. There were various accusations of jestering on D1, but mafia-ally is the only thing close to that in this game.
5. Web spend his night action on me and Web to see what we were doing.
Somebody gave me a hotdog.
Webadict, are these claims both true?
Author
Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 2 / Game Over - Agent Eats Hot Dogs While Writing Report (Read 41689 times)