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[Luckyowl]

@Luckyowl:

Because we're not confirmed and I need to know if I can really trust TM. I can't let my guard down even for a second. I really want to believe he is town. I really do. But this is a game of deception so you just can't trust everything that you see.

I think we're unconfirmed because our roles are powerful. It also makes me fairly convinced we're dealing with a mafia team and SK.

I guess that make sense.

My concern with TM is him confirming our role. Personally I would have wanted him to say nothing about it, but when he nudged me that he wanted to reveal our role I was honestly forced. If ignored it. Then someone was going to bring it up, if I said, no. Then everyone would start questioning me about why not. Our role is pretty vital and I was hoping he didn't revealed too much about it. What I am more worried though. Is now, I'm a possible target for a mafia kill on n1. Since everyone know I am working with TM. I wanted to reveal my role on day 2 with some evidence on hand. Now, we're opened and exposed to a possible n1 kill. If TM is town. They will more likely go after him since he can possibly be a threat to the scum team. If TM is scum, then he is trying to make himself look like town by claiming our role.

Lucky, if I die tonight then you can still spill out all of your info tomorrow. If you die tonight and flip town I'll put out everything you said. I don't think it's likely we'll both die tonight because the mafia and possible SK would need to coordinate, which they can't do. We even have Shadow and Toaster and probably Secretdorf to back us up.[/quote]

Hm, seems good enough. But can I ask why do the mafia and possible SK have to coordinate?  Can't they just choose who to kill?

Number 3

Because we're not confirmed and I need to know if I can really trust TM. I can't let my guard down even for a second. I really want to believe he is town. I really do. But this is a game of deception so you just can't trust everything that you see. My concern with TM is him confirming our role. Personally I would have wanted him to say nothing about it, but when he nudged me that he wanted to reveal our role I was honestly forced. If ignored it. Then someone was going to bring it up, if I said, no. Then everyone would start questioning me about why not. Our role is pretty vital and I was hoping he didn't revealed too much about it. What I am more worried though. Is now, I'm a possible target for a mafia kill on n1. Since everyone know I am working with TM. I wanted to reveal my role on day 2 with some evidence on hand. Now, we're opened and exposed to a possible n1 kill. If TM is town. They will more likely  go after him since he can possibly be a threat to the scum team. If TM is scum, then he is trying to make himself look like town by claiming our role.

How many people have said they trusted ToonyMan right now? Just, list a number. If the answer is more than 4, and it is, then you can be pretty sure that at least one Town member has called ToonyMan Townie.

ToonyMan claimed correctly. You are wrong to question their judgment. It is you who is wrong, and that is why you are policylynchable. That's why people are still putting you on their scumlist. I cannot begin to tell you how horrible your play is right now. Paranoia is gonna lose you the game. If you don't trust ToonyMan, trust me. If you don't trust me, trust Vector. If you don't trust Vector, trust Toaster. If you don't trust Toaster, trust notquitethere. Just trust someone other than yourself. ToonyMan, give his the Bro speech.

hm, I guess, you're right..trusting others is sort of my down fall. But it's honestly hard when there is at least 3 to 4 players lying to us all and I don't know which one is the mafia. Right now, I am willing to place my trust on TM his response was satisfying enough to put my trust.

[Vector]

...it's day 1. Where there isn't enough information usually. If you want to policy lynch me, why not the next day . Day 1 policy lynch makes no sense and that go for policy lynching Web for his outburst. To be frank, policy lynch is a dumb concept on it's own. But everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

I'm talking about the concept of "if you're pretty sure you can't hit scum, at least try to hit the most useless town member on D1." Again: no one said they were lynching you today. Cool your damn jets.

Hm, seems good enough. But can I ask why do the mafia and possible SK have to coordinate?  Can't they just choose who to kill?

They don't have a quicktopic together, so if they both decide to knife, say, you, Toony walks free.

[hector13]

Caz is on UK time I believe (that means the deadline is 8am their time) so... it probably doesn’t mean anything if we wait to the deadline because I think half the wagon will be asleep by the time they can get back to the thread, post, and have people process it.

Even if they did, they’re probably still getting lynched anyway.

This is mostly for Luckyowl, since they seem to be the one most put out of joint by the prospect of a hammer.

[webadict]

Caz is on UK time I believe (that means the deadline is 8am their time) so... it probably doesn’t mean anything if we wait to the deadline because I think half the wagon will be asleep by the time they can get back to the thread, post, and have people process it.

Even if they did, they’re probably still getting lynched anyway.

This is mostly for Luckyowl, since they seem to be the one most put out of joint by the prospect of a hammer.

True. I wouldn't be honest if I didn't say I was only giving time in case someone had something important to say. I don't really have anything, though, and I'm just doing work training while I wait for any questions.

[Luckyowl]

Caz is on UK time I believe (that means the deadline is 8am their time) so... it probably doesn’t mean anything if we wait to the deadline because I think half the wagon will be asleep by the time they can get back to the thread, post, and have people process it.

Even if they did, they’re probably still getting lynched anyway.

This is mostly for Luckyowl, since they seem to be the one most put out of joint by the prospect of a hammer.

sigh...then we'll wait til the last milliseconds...I really hope they flip scum, I really want to trust you guys.

[FallacyofUrist]

FOU: Are the scum team allow to kill as much player they got in their team? or is it one kill per night.

There is, barring exceptional and extreme circumstances, only one mafiakill available per night. (This information is also present in the OP)

[webadict]

sigh...then we'll wait til the last milliseconds...I really hope they flip scum, I really want to trust you guys.

Here's some questions to chew on, Lucky:

If they do flip scum, who do you think would be most like to be scum?
If they don't flip scum, who do you think would be most likely to be scum?

[Luckyowl]

sigh...then we'll wait til the last milliseconds...I really hope they flip scum, I really want to trust you guys.

Here's some questions to chew on, Lucky:

If they do flip scum, who do you think would be most like to be scum?
If they don't flip scum, who do you think would be most likely to be scum?

Well, If Caz flip scum, then I think those who defended Caz might be suspicious. Including me, but the only reason I didn't vote them is because I found the whole bandwagon on Caz to be weird.

if Caz flip town, then that means the one who lead it, which was NQT might be scum who wanted to redirect the attention off from JB. Which I think they might both be working together, and I find it a bit eriee that NQT did what JB predicted back in RVS.

[SHAD0Wdump]

SHAD0Wdump

I'm moving my vote to the... yuck... Bandwagony Luckyowl train since I simply cannot do proper anaysis or arguments right now on lunch, I'll do that if nigyt has not arrived by the time I'm home and eating.

... Could you vote someone that isn't Town for once? I have never seen a Town player vote for so many Town players. There's a group of players that should be voted. Please vote one of them. Vote me if you have to. Don't vote Luckyowl unless you're doing it for role-related reasons. There's six players that are acceptable to vote, though. Please pick one of them.

Alright, I have a few things to say about this, and sadly not a lot to say about anything else from others. Try not to feel like I'm targeting you with this post in particular just for the sake of it.

 It is clearly evident that the possibility of one of the two being mafia is in the air. You have claimed Toony as for certain town, and now you claim that Lucky is for certain town. Now it is entirely possible this is true as well, but how can you say this is the case without a shred of doubt?

 For me, I'm at least 75% certain one is scum, and I'm inclined to believe it's Lucky while fearful it's actually Toony. How are you prepared to deal with things if one of these are true, give me both cases if you are inclined.

 As for the vote, I'm quite certain Caz is going to die, but I want the last hours of discussion so...

 Vector: What is your thoughts on one of the two being scum, and your thoughts of Web being mafia-ally?

if Caz flip town, then that means the one who lead it, which was NQT might be scum who wanted to redirect the attention off from JB. Which I think they might both be working together, and I find it a bit eriee that NQT did what JB predicted back in RVS.

Could we get links to those? This sounds mildly interesting.
 I'd search myself but I have Astroneer to play with people.

[Luckyowl]

here,

Alright, let's get started
NQT: If you are the leader of a wagon, and a counter wagon forms against you, how will you convince town to join your wagon?

Caz Analysis
I counted 33* posts from Caz. Looking through them, I asked myself, "Does Caz actually want to find scum?" I took a broad view approach to this by characterising the posts into the following three categories. When I was in doubt, I tried to err on the generous side.
Low effort, uninformative (commentary, jokes) [4],[5],[6],[7],[9],[11],[21],[27],[28][29],[31] = 11 posts, 33.3%
Low-medium effort, informative (replies, low-ball questions) [2],[3],[8],[10],[12],[15],[16],[17],[19],[22],[24],[25],[26],[30] = 14 posts, 42.4%
High effort, informative/accusatory (i.e. more than 3 sentences, actual questions or accusation) [1],[13],[14],[18],[20],[23],[32],[33] = 24.2%

So, one third of Caz's content is straight up chaff, and three quarters of it is low effort. Slightly less than a quarter of their game is spent doing anything that looks like developing cases or finding scum.

Is this telling? I'd need to run the same analysis on some other players to get a sense, but I would support a Caz lynch. They don't spend a lot of time actually being town.

*It's possible I missed one or two, this would have been easier with the lurkertracker.
**PPE: some interesting non-Caz revelations I will respond to shortly

[Luckyowl]

Ding dong! Delivery of one Mamobo!
Vote Count
------------------------
Caz - 4 - juicebox*, Secretdorf*, notquitethere*, ToonyMan*,
hector13 - 0 -
juicebox - 1 - Vector*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
notquitethere - 0 -
Secretdorf - 0 -
SHAD0Wdump - 0 -
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 0 -
TricMagic - 0 -
Vector - 1 - TricMagic*,
webadict - 2 - Luckyowl*, Caz*,
No Lynch - 0 -

Not Voting - 4 - webadict*, Toaster*, hector13*, SHAD0Wdump*,

7 to Hammer. Day ends on January 26, 2021 at 02:00 CST (8 hours and 4 minutes remaining.)

They are also both lynching Caz, so if they do flip town. We should definitely focus on them.

[hector13]

Heeeeeey SHAD0Wdump.

Who do you think is the scum team? How many scum do you think there are?

[webadict]

SHAD0Wdump

I'm moving my vote to the... yuck... Bandwagony Luckyowl train since I simply cannot do proper anaysis or arguments right now on lunch, I'll do that if nigyt has not arrived by the time I'm home and eating.

... Could you vote someone that isn't Town for once? I have never seen a Town player vote for so many Town players. There's a group of players that should be voted. Please vote one of them. Vote me if you have to. Don't vote Luckyowl unless you're doing it for role-related reasons. There's six players that are acceptable to vote, though. Please pick one of them.

Alright, I have a few things to say about this, and sadly not a lot to say about anything else from others. Try not to feel like I'm targeting you with this post in particular just for the sake of it.

 It is clearly evident that the possibility of one of the two being mafia is in the air. You have claimed Toony as for certain town, and now you claim that Lucky is for certain town. Now it is entirely possible this is true as well, but how can you say this is the case without a shred of doubt?

 For me, I'm at least 75% certain one is scum, and I'm inclined to believe it's Lucky while fearful it's actually Toony. How are you prepared to deal with things if one of these are true, give me both cases if you are inclined.

Certainly, and given your knowledge of your own role, I can understand why you'd be suspicious of them. But, consider this from an outsider's perspective: You both are equally as confirmed to us as anyone else is. I take your word that Toaster is Town. I take ToonyMan's word that Luckyowl won't be a problem. To me, these are equivalents, and just as equivalent as my saying TricMagic or notquitethere are Town. To you, this probably seems like an understatement, as you're certain of Toaster's alignment, but the rest of us have no certainties on that until one of you is dead. But, relying on that method is a slow and patient way to lose.

So, the key here is that this is an issue that can be solved later. They are problems that do not need to be dealt with Today. If it turns out that, say, one of ToonyMan or Luckyowl is Mafia (or, potentially, both of them), then it will need to be dealt with. But, we should not try to solve every problem Today, because we don't have enough answers. The same issue could be reverse on you and Toaster, but you both are a more direct tie, which is why confirmation of one confirms the other.

Basically, the short answer is: Priorities.

here

Odd, I had assumed that was done in response to my pointing out that Caz hadn't pushed forward a case. While I suppose it could've been done to distract from juicebox, I do not take it as malfeasance. I instead believe that had Caz claimed, we'd be in a better position, and that would have shown Caz as more likely to be Town, which in turn would've shown both notquitethere and I as scummier.

[webadict]

Alright guy, it's bedtime for me. Do you want to wait for SHAD0W, or do you want a hammer?

[Mamobo]

How can Mamobo believe anything you say!?
Vote Count
------------------------
Caz - 6 - juicebox*, Secretdorf*, Vector*, notquitethere*, ToonyMan*, hector13*,
hector13 - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Luckyowl - 0 -
notquitethere - 0 -
Secretdorf - 0 -
SHAD0Wdump - 0 -
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 0 -
TricMagic - 0 -
Vector - 2 - TricMagic*, SHAD0Wdump*,
webadict - 2 - Luckyowl*, Caz*,
No Lynch - 0 -

Not Voting - 2 - webadict*, Toaster*,

7 to Hammer. Day ends on January 26, 2021 at 02:00 CST (3 hours and 47 minutes remaining.)