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[Teneb]

Some computer models that are available on the web predict Spanish peak around mid April.

Could you share the link to it?


Anyway, news from the southern front:

The metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has been completely locked down. Only folks who can get in or out are either truckers transporting stuff or people from the government. The state's second death was in my home city.

Most of the cases are in the Southeastern Region, though there are cases in all other Regions as well (FYI, there are five: North, Northeast, Centre-West, Southeast, South).

Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.

I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.

As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.

I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.

Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.


EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.

[ChairmanPoo]

Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).

Came on the news today. It's coffins. They're burning them. And no they are not empty


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-army-transport-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-bergamo-crematorium-overwhelmed-as-italys-death-toll-overtakes-china-tn6px20vh

You seem very keen on believing this is less than it is. I... might be mistaken but I think you're in denial. I dont mean this in an aggressive way. I mean this because I was in denial too before. But it's real. It's happening. Thousands of people will die. I really hope you don't have to see how real it is for yourself. The best way to prevent this is to try to persuade you and all around you of how real this is.

I really don't mean any of this in a bad way. I'm in the middle of a warzone and I dont wish this on anyone.  And our goverments are reacting really slow.

Some computer models that are available on the web predict Spanish peak around mid April.

Could you share the link to it?

https://www.imm.upv.es/covid-19/
Mind you its only for Spain and it has been kind of driven off rails by several testing criteria changes (I think goverments are having a test shortage too, so at times they test people with a wider criteria, some other times they stick to severe cases)

Anyway, news from the southern front:

The metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has been completely locked down. Only folks who can get in or out are either truckers transporting stuff or people from the government. The state's second death was in my home city.

Most of the cases are in the Southeastern Region, though there are cases in all other Regions as well (FYI, there are five: North, Northeast, Centre-West, Southeast, South).

Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.

I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.

As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.

I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.

Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.


EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.

It's starting. I'm sorry Teneb. ☹
Take care of yourself. Stay in as much as possible. Try to get a mask and gloves


On the personal side of things: my aunt insisted on visiting 5-6 days ago. My parents opened the door for her (this was bsfore rhe enforced lockdown. We had a quarrel over it anyway). The next day she had a sore throat and a mild temp of 37.2. Which stopped today.

-‐-------
But... I've had a slightly itchy throat today. Could almost mistake it for being just a bit thirsty. And I took my temp and I've 37°. I don't feel dysthermic though. In fact I feel fine otherwise.

This could be covid, could be something else, or could be nothing.
I expect this will happen several times over the coming weeks

[Iduno]

Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.

I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.

As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.

I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.

Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.


EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.

That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.

[Teneb]

Try to get a mask and gloves

Utterly impossible, they're sold out.

[mko]

You seem very keen on believing this is less than it is. I... might be mistaken but I think you're in denial. I dont mean this in an aggressive way. I mean this because I was in denial too before. But it's real. It's happening. Thousands of people will die. I really hope you don't have to see how real it is for yourself. The best way to prevent this is to try to persuade you and all around you of how real this is.

I really don't mean any of this in a bad way. I'm in the middle of a warzone and I dont wish this on anyone.  And our goverments are reacting really slow.

Nope, not in denial. Currently everything indicates that we will have the worst pandemic since 1918, with millions dead. I am staying at home, not visiting others and going through my buffer of food to avoid shopping.

There is about 50% chance that either my grandmother or grandfather will die, about 1% chance that my father will die.

It also made me far more scared about usual flu, especially as I get older. My father since January has a dedicated Twitter account about Covid.

I hope that we will not get Italy-level bad, but for now in the entire Poland only 4 000 tests were made - 115/million ( https://covid19map.tech/ ). To compare - USA is at 64/million, China at 3 759/million, Italy at 1 809/million. It is not inspiring confidence.

Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).

Came on the news today. It's coffins. They're burning them. And no they are not empty


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-army-transport-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-bergamo-crematorium-overwhelmed-as-italys-death-toll-overtakes-china-tn6px20vh

Damm. I wanted to check before forwarding. Thanks for links! They are moving 61 coffins, I expected far more packed trucks.


-----------

BTW, when Italian hospitals started collapsing? Poland is about 22 days delayed (larger delay due to earlier quarantines, earlier collapse due to lower hospital capacity).

[Max™]

Jesus fuck, we're at 13,760 from 9,415 this morning, 175 deaths known.

[Dostoevsky]

Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).

It made the national nightly news here in the US (major broadcast networks), so that's a bit more reliable. (Not saying they don't make mistakes, mind.) Their framing was the coffins were being moved because incinerators in the region were overworked disposing of the dead.

Edit: Oops, somehow missed a page of responses before replying.

Well, something potentially more helpful in this space: US Senate Rs released their (initial bid of) bill #3 on coronavirus. The 'cash to people' is crummy regressive tax rebates, even then it's just a single payment for what may be the only legislation on this for the next couple of months; it tries to make a good portion of the already-weak House language on paid leave even worse; it's got an almost mockingly-bad provision on insurance coverage of testing (basically they can't overly-gouge you, but that's it).

It's a crummy bill. But at least negotiations continue with other parties, so maybe it will become less bad.

[Max™]

The hateful cunts put forward a bill which would end up screwing over basically anybody getting an income tax credit, child credit, were a student, unemployed, or just recently changed positions in 2018, the sorts of people who are going to get hardest by the current crisis.

On the other hand if you happened to check the right boxes, defer the right burdens, and wound up a millionaire currently but happened to have less than $75k tax liability in 2018 you get uh... *check's notes* full benefit from their proposal.

Also can somebody hide turdbaby's markers?

You just know he's sniffing them when he's not using them to badly edit things in stupid ways.

[MaximumZero]

-snip-
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.

This is a surprise to you?

[ChairmanPoo]

That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.

I don't want to go too deep into tinfoil territory, but I've been wondering about this for two days

You probably heard about flattening the curve. One thing you might or might not have realized is that flattening the curve means the epidemic itself lasts longer, so it's more expensive. NOT flattening the curve brings a huge whack to your system, but is shorter.

I also realize that every western nation is doing more or less the same thing: react late, and then scramble to establish a lockdown.

So here's a thought:  I'm not saying that they were psychotics thinking about killing thousands of people for the economy. But what if they thought they could game the curves? AKA: Something like, "ok, let's flatten the curve, BUT NOT TOO MUCH, because if we hit *this* sweet spot we can get a shorter curve without it being too long". And afterwards they realized that covid19 cannot be played with and the more containment measures you have in place, the better, hence the panic, the rambling, and the desperation in many healthcare officials these days

[Greiger]

If it came up in a history lesson years later I'd believe it. 

Right now though it strongly feels like no-one in charge corporation or government has any fucking idea what they are doing.

Corporations are blindly following policy*  and aren't actually using common sense in these situations.  Some of them saying they care but when push comes to shove no-one on the ground floor has authority to do anything.

Government leaders I suspect are using what little competence they have to limit tests so that the numbers don't go up and look bad.  Can't have confirmed cases if you refuse to test to confirm them.   Hell my own fucking president didn't want people to leave a boat because he was unhappy that once they got on the mainland there would be 40 some additional coronavirus cases counting against him.  EDIT: I wouldn't be surprised if that patent troll company that recently shut down a coronavirus test kit making facility was actually owned by Donald's company.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)

Got an email from the district manager asking me why I quit.  He knows why I quit, he is the one that told my boss that if I quit I won't be eligible for rehire. I'm pretty sure he just wants me to say I quit in writing to cover his own ass

[ChairmanPoo]

Right now though it strongly feels like no-one in charge corporation or government has any fucking idea what they are doing.

That doesn't really contradict my model. They fucked up bad and now are scrambling to fix it

Government leaders I suspect are using what little competence they have to limit tests so that the numbers go up and look bad.

In the US Trump definitedly did some of those sheanigans.... but I think in the rest of the world the problem is that largely there are not enough tests. The approach in South Korea, Singapore, or Hong Kong of testing everyone and quarantining works if you start early. Since we are all starting late, either because of incompetent inaction, or because of a huge blunder trying to eat cake and keep it, testing everyone is just impossible because there are not enough tests.

[Cthulhu]

We didn't have anything in place for stuff like this.  The Great Filter is that as civilizations become more advanced they thin their margins further and further, optimizing for maximum efficiency, until black swans (or just known unknowns like this) cause catastrophic failures.

Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick.  Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation.  Feed them  money so they can give it back to us so number go up and we can pretend we're not in a death spiral.

And this is just throwing people a bone because a multi-trillion stimulus package in the middle of a pandemic and impending mass unemployment has flared up class consciousness.  If they're want to give you something, it's because they know you could take much, much more.

[Doomblade187]

@Grieger, however you respond, make sure you're elegible for unemployment benefits.

[mko]

Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick.  Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation.

Part of UBI point (in "many humans will not be employable soon" assumption and justification) is redistribution of what new automation will produce.

The whole point is to avoid collapse of profit that would follow collapse of employment.

There are many problems with it, "UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion" is not. It is supposed to be "move wealth from owners of automation to general society".