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[Reelya]

That also fails to account for the fact that adding and removing dollars to the economy isn't neutral for GDP. Food stamps have a fiscal multiplier (amount of GDP created) of 1.73, while taxing a billionaire has a fiscal multiplier of 0.29. So, taking $1 from the billionaire reduces GDP by 29 cents, but giving it to a poor person increases GDP by $1.73. So, just by transferring $1 you've incentivized the creation of net GDP. That's because not all investments are equal, which should be obvious. Take $1 away from a poorly-performing area of the economy and invest it in a high-growth area of the economy. I turns out that $1 extra/less for a rich person does a hell of a lot less for the economy than that same $1 for a poor person.

There's also the fact that consistent inputs into the economy tend to stabilize the economy. If everyone gets their food check every month and you manage to keep inflation in check (interest rates and other proven levers) then overall this will have a strong stabilizing effect, and mean there aren't such wild swings with employment and the like.

[coalboat]

I also realize that every western nation is doing more or less the same thing: react late, and then scramble to establish a lockdown.

This is typical and universal reaction to an unknown epidemic. Even Korea don't react early enough, but fortunately they seem to have managed the situation.

I think one of the reasons why Hong Kong and Singapore reacted timely is the lack of language barrier. Although the initial outbreak was downplayed by state owned media, unofficial information and panic spreaded quickly through Chinese speaking Internet, which made it easy for people to take "social distancing" seriously. Their small population and experience of dealing with SARS also helps of course.

[martinuzz]

Holy shit.
Those 4 republican senators (Richard Burr, Kelly Loeffler, Jim Inhofe, Ron Johnson),  that shorted stocks (and bought stocks in citrix working from home software) just after the initial briefing about corona on the 24th of january), while publicly downplaying the threat...
They should not only be removed from office for insider trading, they should be imprisoned for 3x life.

[mko]

Poland will stop destroying illegal ethanol and will transfer it for use by hospitals, border guards, firefighters etc for disinfection.

https://www.rp.pl/Prokuratorzy/303209931-Prokuratura-i-KAS-przekaza-zarekwirowany-alkohol-na-walke-z-koronawirusem.html

-----------------------------------

Holy shit.
Those 4 republican senators (Richard Burr, Kelly Loeffler, Jim Inhofe, Ron Johnson),  that shorted stocks (and bought stocks in citrix working from home software) just after the initial briefing about corona on the 24th of january), while publicly downplaying the threat...
They should not only be removed from office, they should be imprisoned for 3x life.

I am not fan of random imprisoning, but super-sized fine (say, 98% of their wealth) would be nice.

Hopefully *something* will be done with them, because that is...

[itisnotlogical]

A rich person in America facing consequences for their actions? When pigs fly.

[martinuzz]

We have a new minister of medical care.
It's a very unusual choice: the new minister is a prominent member of one of our opposition parties, not a member of the government coalition.
That's a good choice. In times like these, political colour should not matter.

[scriver]

Chairman is this you

[McTraveller]

I think I have entered the cynical camp that flattening the curve enough is not possible at this point. So all we've done by shutting down the economies is destroyed the economies on top of getting hammered by the virus.

My rationale is this:  Consider 10 beds and even only a 7-day recovery period:  If you have only 1 new case a day, you are fine, because you will use 7 beds, and then on day 8 you will free up a bed and have room for the new case. But if you have more than 10 new "needs bed" cases in any 7 day period, you will overflow (and say overflowed until recovery rate starts to exceed new needs bed rate).

I'm guessing there is a reason we don't see statistics posted about how many free beds/ventilators/<resource> there really are.... I mean we know there are "shortages".

I'd like to see these virus trackers not just track new cases - I'd like to see ones that track "hospitalized" specifically, along with "free beds remaining", so we can have a more complete picture.

[Akura]

The company just shut down every North American store for at least 2 weeks. I'm getting paid for 6 hours(what we were originally scheduled for) today despite being there about half an hour, and my health benefits are going to be still provided at no cost up through mid-May.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)

Got an email from the district manager asking me why I quit.  He knows why I quit, he is the one that told my boss that if I quit I won't be eligible for rehire. I'm pretty sure he just wants me to say I quit in writing to cover his own ass

Spoiler: Possible response? (click to show/hide)

To <insert DM's name>:
I am writing to inform you of a situation that both you and <insert doucheboss' name> appear to completely ignorant of, which is the worldwide virulent outbreak of CORVID-19(aka Coronavirus) that has left many thousands of people ill and many thousands more under a forced quarantine. Myself, and those closest to me, under strict orders from our doctors, are included in those quarantine measures. At NO point was my separation from <company name> "voluntary", under ANY definition of the word.

Signed,
<your name>.

[TD1]

Definitely something akin to what Akura recommends. Keep your paper trail right and kick up a fuss about it. If only to annoy your DM.

[Reelya]

There was something about relative ventilator availability in the US included in the Imperial College of London report.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/17/1584439125000/That-Imperial-coronavirus-report--in-detail-/

"Mitigation" which is the current strategy in the UK and US will "limit" deaths to 250,000 in the UK and 1.1-1.2 million in the USA, according to the Imperial College's epidemic modelling.

But ... those figures already assume that you're able to treat 100% of the patients who need treating. If you need a ventilator and can't get one, your odds go down from 50/50 to basically zero. I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenario, so effectively you get a 98.5% death rate among those who need ventilation. This bumps it up to the Imperial College's worst-case scenario for the USA, which is 2.2 million deaths.

[McTraveller]

I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenario

Everyone always talks about worst-case scenario.  What's the "most probable" scenario?

[Reelya]

I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenario

Everyone always talks about worst-case scenario.  What's the "most probable" scenario?

Well they did say 1.2 million deaths with 100% treatment, with 2.2 million deaths if it gets out of control. That's because your odds are 50% if ill and ventilated, vs 0% if not ventilated, so if the figures spike up to fast it caps out at double the deaths, vs mitigation so that everyone who needs it can get treated.

So unless they actually stop everyone getting it (fairly unlikely), you're going to have 1.2 - 2.2 million deaths, and it would hit that 2.2 million cap pretty quickly I'd guess, since the idea that you'd have enough ventilators for everyone is probably fanciful.

Things like the complete lockdown in California and other suppression methods may reduce the 1.2 million figure.

[ChairmanPoo]

Chairman is this you

Hell no 🤣🤣🤣. That's the guy in Andalusia, an ED consultant. I'm not very fond of him because a couple of years ago he threatened his junior doctors with sancrions when they went on strike for their rights (meanwhile he had been advocating for years for a strike for consultant rights. So it was nasty and quite hypocritical)
I do understand why he's so frantic. He was deceived and in denial. He was sold, like many of us were all around the world, that mitigation and social distance would be enough. And now the truth has hit home and he realizes the enormity of what's coming. I know the feeling.



Now...

[McTraveller]

Sorry, one of my coping mechanisms is math:

What I'm having a hard time understanding is this:  1.2 million US deaths at a case fatality rate of 3% means 40 million total infected, or 125,000 cases per million population.  If the CFR is 1%, that would mean 120 million infected, or 375,000 cases per million population.

Iceland has a case rate of at least 1200 per million, which is from the low-population country of Iceland.  Italy, which is the media poster child for disaster, is probably a better proxy for expectations, which is ~700 cases per million.  Let's say even that Italy's case count doubles, that would only be 1400 cases per million population.  A case rate of 125k per million seems unlikely actually, even for Italy: the plots of total cases in Italy is starting to flatten (log plot) which suggests it's starting to get under some control.

So even if we take Iceland's infection rate of 1200 cases per million population, and a CFR of 3%, the US should see about 12k deaths, not 1.2 million (using 330M as US pop).  Do we really think actual cases are 100 times the official counts?  I can see 5-20 times yes, but 100 seems... unlikely.

We are already in social distancing mode to some extent basically worldwide - so is it reality or just FUD that we are going to have total case counts as high as these scenarios are playing out?

Spain's total case curve is also flattening, as is France, as is Germany. US is not, it looks to be constant-rate exponential still (looks linear on the log plot) but I suspect that is due to testing availability not actual infection rate. UK also looks constant-rate exponential, but I think again that is due to testing policy.