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[IcyTea31]

I'll confirm. I was holding off on mentioning this, but if it helps town, I will: I have a voting based ability, when i vote someone it *removes* one from their vote count. My votes are a big fat -1.

Seriously? Is there any way for you to give a positive vote? If not, we may actually be looking at a D1 LyLo unless a townie has a nightkill.

I'm not entirely satisfied with IcyTea's explanation for skipping the vote, as it seems to me that the possibility of a time loop makes voting on hunches safer than usual.

I suppose that makes sense. I've still been trying to figure out a good strategy for this one; you may have noticed my playstyle changing in each subphase.


Side question: what do the acronyms 'PFP' and 'EBWOP' mean? I can sort of figure them out by context, but I'd like confirmation.

[hector13]

Posting From Phone and Edit By Way of Post, since you're not s'posed to edit posts in mafia.

Also, what makes you think there's a D1 LyLo?

[MoonyTheHuman]

I am incapable of  giving a positive vote
I mean, i chose a web number of -1, what do you expect?

[MoonyTheHuman]

EBWOP:

What's a LyLo?

[IcyTea31]

Also, what makes you think there's a D1 LyLo?

If Moony is town, then we have 4 townies of whom 1 can't give a positive vote, 2 mafiosi and 2 third parties. If we don't lynch mafia, and the mafia successfully kills and doesn't get nightkilled, the votes by faction will be 1/2/2 (mislynch) 2/2/2 (no lynch) or 2/2/1 (3P lynch). At that point, we'd have to convince both third parties to vote with us or we lose.

In fact, now that I think about it, we do need a 3P on our side even if we lynch mafia, if we don't have kills of our own (I suspect we do).

This is a lot of ifs, and possible doesn't mean probable, but the odds are there.

What's a LyLo?

Lynch-or-Lose, a situation where the town loses the game unless they figure out who the mafia are and lynch them. See also MyLo, Mislynch-and-Lose, where the town loses if it lynches a townie.

[MoonyTheHuman]

Alrighty. Well, for now, my vote sticks on myself (for obvious reasons)
However, if something seems off, I'll stick my vote on someone else to stop a hammer until the situation is cleared up.
We know RGU is scum, but is it even sane to kill him? I suspect he's not immune to lynch.

[randomgenericusername]

...But I'm not scum. My role fully revealed and never stated my alignment as scum: I'm an 1-shot vigilante.
My role even seems to be built around killing a scum and stealing their mafiakill to use it against the rest of the scum team. Otherwise, I wouldn't have that passive that allows me to use mafiakills as night abilities or the kill that also steals mafiakills (And there's the chance there are townies or thirds with mafiakills too or the ability to gain mafiakills.).

[mightymushroom]

I'm not entirely satisfied with IcyTea's explanation for skipping the vote, as it seems to me that the possibility of a time loop makes voting on hunches safer than usual.

I suppose that makes sense. I've still been trying to figure out a good strategy for this one; you may have noticed my playstyle changing in each subphase.

I can point out to you – and to Tiruin, since I *think* she says she was voting for me because she didn't want a lynch and I would use the revive – and everybody, really – that there is a "No Lynch" option right up there on the tally sheet. You can use it to express your true feelings if necessary.

-----

If Moony is town, then we have 4 townies of whom 1 can't give a positive vote, 2 mafiosi and 2 third parties. If we don't lynch mafia, and the mafia successfully kills and doesn't get nightkilled, the votes by faction will be 1/2/2 (mislynch) 2/2/2 (no lynch) or 2/2/1 (3P lynch). At that point, we'd have to convince both third parties to vote with us or we lose.

In fact, now that I think about it, we do need a 3P on our side even if we lynch mafia,

4+2+2 only adds up to 8?

I wouldn't be surprised at another third party at this point, and one of our third parties being SK or another anti-town, making it (4+2) vs. 2 vs. 1.
(But this kind of analysis might not be my strongest suit.)

if we don't have kills of our own (I suspect we do).

Oh yeah. Shakerag used to have one (the one that killed him). RGU claiming vigilante would be another. BHK has claimed one that depends on which side he likes. If Moony thinks he might be able to control the lynch, that makes him arbiter of at least one death. We'd be in deep trouble if all of those are in the hands of scum, and that's just what we see on the board.

[MoonyTheHuman]

Well, I'm town (Not that that means anything to you guys, this IS mafia. Just assume for this statement please), so I plan on controlling the lynch in the town's favor when possible.

@RGU: Oops. Sorry. goes to reread

[IcyTea31]

4+2+2 only adds up to 8?

4 town-sided votes. Moony's negative vote won't help us lynch scum (though it does have its own uses), thus I didn't count it.

[mightymushroom]

I knew I wasn't good at that kind of analysis.

On the other hand:

-----

Crazy Plan: Make Moony Our King?

Moony, from what I read so far, can single-handedly decide the lynch if the right conditions occur.
IcyTea worries about 3rd party votes deciding the lynch.

• Flip Moony now.
• Time loop.
• If Moony is confirmed town, at least we don't trust our fate to third parties.
• Use FoU's protection at night to keep Moony alive and repeat.

Pros are fairly obvious, it just depends on the degree of cooperation we can get going.

Cons (may not be a full list):

• Moony may not want to be limited at night because of other abilities.
• I suspect but don't know the "right conditions" so I don't know how easy it would be to prevent Moony from doing his thing.
• BHK has already paid for a cozy night with FoU, the rest of us either have to convince him to relinquish it or outbid him.
• We may have to continually pay FoU. And keep him alive, too, to perpetuate the scheme.

Fallacy: You've been openly greedy so far, yet with a town lean underneath. How amenable would you be if town paid your "retainer fee" in full the first day? (or second depending on how many powers we can wrangle together)

[hector13]

FoU has already acted though, so that's a bit late.

~~~

webadict: if, let's say, for example, there are two scum in the game, and two benign tp's who are all alive for this hypothetical; will the scum win in the event that the members of the town faction are equal to or less than two living members?

[hector13]

Also, day ends in about 12 hours, so let's get voting please.

Also also, I am not unaware that there may be something in the game that can cause my loop not to happen, so... please don't cause that not to happen.


People I don't want to see flipped today for various reasons: RGU, Moony, me.

People I am disinclined to lynch but not averse to doing so: FoU, BHK

lynch pool: Tiruin, quinnr, IcyTea, MM

quinnr, unless someone can convince me it's better to flip someone else.

[quinnr]

hector13 this may have been answered and I'm just missing it, but is there a night between D1-1 and D1-2 after the time loop happens?

[hector13]

Well that's what the wording says, when D1 ends, D1 repeats. So no night.