Now, this one is a peach (pun intended). Because of the timing of Sen. Isaakson's retirement, BOTH Georgia senate seats are up for grabs this year. And because Georgia is one of the closest swing states in the country, they're literally both up for grabs.
Georgia (normal election) – Incumbent David Perdue is running for a second term against Democrat Jon Ossoff. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because Ossoff narrowly lost a 2017 special election for a Congressional seat that was the only national race that year. Seen as an early harbinger of the 2018 election cycle, both sides poured an absolutely ridiculous amount of money into the race, which Ossoff ended up losing by less than 10,000 votes, after dominating the first round, a so-called “jungle primary” in which all candidates from all parties are on the ballot and then the top two vote-getters have a second round of voting if no one exceeds 50%. Ossoff had 48.1% in the first round, which featured
eleven Republicans, five Democrats, and two independents. The next closest candidate, Republican Karen Handel, had 19.8%. In the second round, all of the Republican support coalesced behind Handel and she won 51.7% to 48.2%. (Should also be noted that Handel then lost re-election to a Democrat in 2018, making this the most expensive 18-month Congressional tenure in history.)
Georgia has been seeing a steady blue shift over the last 4-6 years, with a number of exceedingly close statewide races, counterbalanced by voting shenanigans from the state’s Republican Governor, Brian Kemp. Current polling average has Perdue up by 2.8, which is well within MOE for most polls. That said, the existence of voter suppression efforts in Georgia tend to make me pessimistic about GA races for this cycle.
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Lean RepublicanGeorgia (special election) – Ok, go grab a drink before you start this one because it’s going to be complicated. As mentioned in the previous entry, Georgia likes their special elections messy. This one is also a jungle primary with five Republicans, eight Democrats, five independents, a Libertarian and a Green in the race. (There might also be a midget with a goat, I lost track.)
You would expect tremendous pressure on both sides for their weaker candidates to withdraw and consolidate all their votes to have a better chance to win outright and avoid a runoff. And you’d be correct, there has been a lot of that. And yet, here we are. Let’s start with the Republicans. And to do that, we need a bit of a history lesson.
In August 2019, then-Senator Johnny Isaakson announced he was resigning due to poor health. While it is then the Governor’s job to select and appoint a replacement, Gov. Brian Kemp went about it in a somewhat unusual fashion – he posted a job opening. A website was set up to allow any and all Georgians to apply for the job, which thousands of them did. From lobbyists to pundits to members of his own staff to hog farmers. A lot of people thought it was political theater, an attempt to seem like a man of the people before picking some party insider like Rep. Doug Collins, an ally of President Trump and Trump’s anointed desired pick for the seat.
Which is why people lost their shit when three months later, he announced the pick of Kelly Loeffler, the CEO of an investment firm and part-owner of the Atlanta WNBA team, and a complete unknown in Georgia politics. Actually, they had begun losing their shit for a month or more before that, as it became clearer that he was not going to pick Collins and was leaning towards Loeffler. The right-wing punditocracy and the GOP establishment both excoriated her as an unqualified newbie, not a “real” conservative, etc. Some even hinted at shadier motives for picking a young, attractive blonde woman (who admittedly, rose to senior VP in her previous investment firm after marrying its’ CEO). But Kemp stuck to his guns, even at the risk of pissing off Trump.
Flash forward eight months. Loeffler became the Trumpiest Trumper to ever Trump a Trump, Tweeting out about BLM and Antifa and “the China virus” and generally being as vocal a cheerleader as she could be. Trump and the GOP establishment now considered her a favorite and supported her re-election bid.
But who should come into the picture but Doug Collins, the jilted former golden boy who had been replaced. Collins announced his candidacy, which because of the jungle primary format, meant that it was splitting the vote and giving the Democrats a key opportunity to pick off a Senate seat in a purple state. McConnell tried talking Collins out of his run and announced that the NRCC would not provide any funding or support for Collins (despite having backed Collins less than a year earlier), which Collins turned around and used to argue that he was the “true” conservative, hated by swamp dwellers like McConnell. The remaining Republicans have little to no support and are polling single digits or lower, but Loeffler is at around 25%, while Collins is around 21%. Interestingly enough, when polled head-to-head against Warnock, the likely Democratic challenger in the second round, Collins tends to win while Loeffler loses.
On the Democratic side, the opportunity was too good to pass up. So good, in fact, that
too many couldn’t pass it up, which negates the value of the opportunity. It’s like a bunch of people rushing to the throne room, causing them to all get stuck in the doorway flailing. The leading candidate is Rev. Raphael Warnock, an Atlanta-area preacher and activist. Most of the remaining candidates are single digit or less, with exceptions of Matt Lieberman (son of former Senator and Democrat-turned-Independent Joe Lieberman) and Ed Tarver (a former State Senator and US District Attorney). Warnock is polling around 40%, Lieberman around 8%, and Tarver around 3-4%.
You can see the insanity in this – in both cases, if either party could winnow down their field to one main candidate, they’d likely win. But neither side can convince the holdouts. On the GOP side, it makes sense – both are polling pretty close to each other. Collins thinks if he can be one of the top 2, he has a good shot to beat Warnock in the runoff, and likely feels like it should have been his seat anyways. Loeffler, for her part, is the incumbent and likely thinks *she* can beat Warnock, and feels like Collins is just a thirsty bitch who can’t get over getting dumped.
But on the Democratic side, when one candidate is so far out ahead, I just can’t fathom the egomania it takes to hang on in the race, knowing it’s hurting your party’s chances. Lieberman, to be fair, was actually outpolling Warnock back in the spring and was very close through July. But now his support is cratering as the state party apparatus lines up behind Warnock. Tarver has never cracked 5% in polling the whole time, so again, not sure why he’s still in it when the margins are this close.
Now for the EXTRA fun part – if no one blinks, you’re likely looking at a scenario where Warnock gets around 40-45% of the vote, and the second place goes to one of the Republicans with around 25%. Which means a second election to decide the actual winner of the seat, which won’t take place until January 5, 2021. Which means that depending on how things shake out elsewhere,
control of the US Senate may not be decided until two months after Election Day, and a mere 15 days before Inauguration Day. Which could also mean that the amount of money and national focus on the runoff race could make the 2017 House special election in Georgia (which cost an estimated $50 million) look like a high school class president race by comparison.
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