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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4201359 times)

wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35490 on: March 13, 2020, 02:14:19 am »

No shortage on ditchweeds.

Its nearly spring, all kinds of stuff coming in season if you know what to look for.  Not concerned about food at all. Been wanting to go mushroom hunting anyway.
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35491 on: March 13, 2020, 07:41:23 am »

If nothing else, we're seeing an interesting exercise in States Rights:  the Feds aren't doing much, but all the states seem to be taking their own action.

Holy cow, is that part of the system actually working?

Re: financial stuff - it would be cool if we had something like the Year of Jubilee - just erase all debt.  I bet you could argue that the impact of simply simultaneously declaring all loans fulfilled is better than creating money to pay them all off.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35492 on: March 13, 2020, 07:46:55 am »

Behold the wonders of Free Market capitalism. It's fine until people start losing money, then the government jumps in to bail them out.

And people call Bernie a socialist. FFS.

The free market would have let us keep our 1.5 Trillion fucking dollars. This is a controlled market, through the full incompetence capitalists can manage.


So...

Older people have far more cause to be afraid of Covid-19 than young people do.  Younger people are far more afraid of what disaster capitalism with do with this situation than they are of the virus itself.

Yep. I don't have any health care or ability to use my sick days. I expect to be dead in the next few years anyway. What are the odds I get sick, and become homeless so I don't get my coworkers sick? What are the odds I get sick, don't know it, and just keep coming to work, hoping everything works out?
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35493 on: March 13, 2020, 09:58:00 am »

State of emergency in Spain
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35494 on: March 13, 2020, 09:59:32 am »

State of emergency in Spain
We should probably disentangle the general covid-19 stuff from stuff that's specifically relevant to the USA. I sorta broke that rule, the infowars stuff maybe should have been in the virus thread.

sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35495 on: March 13, 2020, 10:29:23 am »

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/federal-reserve-bond-market-wall-street-trillion.html

TL;DR: They didn't just hand out 1.5 trillion. They simply said they were going to offer up some low interest loans in order to keep money moving around. (The plan was to keep the interest at about 1%, but that they'd probably offer lower if necessary.)

I still don't agree with the idea that wallstreet is more important than the rest of the country. And I'm skeptical of how much such an action will actually help when things are crashing so hard. And after 2008, congress did give the federal reserve the power to offer out similar loans to the public rather than only to financial institutions, so they could be trying that as well. All in all, the government has basically used almost every option they have in order to fix the 2008 crisis and then try to keep the unsustainable growth we had for the last 10 years going. And now when we need those options to keep the ship from sinking, most of them are not around, so they're coming up with new things to try.

So no. It's a loan. It's not just bailing them out. It's not handing out money. The money SHOULDN'T just disappear unless the companies taking the loans just completely collapse. And the loans should be very short term. Measured in days rather than years. It's a finger over the leak rather than a long term fix. If things go right the finger will be fine once the leak is patched. If things don't go right, we'll have to worry about a lot more than just one finger.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35496 on: March 13, 2020, 10:42:33 am »

State of emergency in Spain
We should probably disentangle the general covid-19 stuff from stuff that's specifically relevant to the USA. I sorta broke that rule, the infowars stuff maybe should have been in the virus thread.

It's probably a grey area. Hoarding things is corvid-19 thread, telling the CDC not to test people, or people dying because healthcare doesn't exist is political. Spain is pretty obviously not Ameripol, unless used for comparison (although Italy would probably work better). I'm not a mod, though, so take my guesses with a grain of salt.


So no. It's a loan. It's not just bailing them out. It's not handing out money. The money SHOULDN'T just disappear unless the companies taking the loans just completely collapse. And the loans should be very short term. Measured in days rather than years. It's a finger over the leak rather than a long term fix. If things go right the finger will be fine once the leak is patched. If things don't go right, we'll have to worry about a lot more than just one finger.

Assuming they require people to pay back the loans. The government loans that I've seen didn't get paid back, but I usually deal with bad actors (people who ignore laws, not just Adam Sandler). Does anyone have figures on what percent of government loans get paid back?
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35497 on: March 13, 2020, 11:25:35 am »

If nothing else, we're seeing an interesting exercise in States Rights:  the Feds aren't doing much, but all the states seem to be taking their own action.

Holy cow, is that part of the system actually working?

Re: financial stuff - it would be cool if we had something like the Year of Jubilee - just erase all debt.  I bet you could argue that the impact of simply simultaneously declaring all loans fulfilled is better than creating money to pay them all off.

I think this has been Trump's overall plan. Take no action as the Fed, let the States arrange their own response to the outbreak. "See? We don't need an active Federal government, States can handle things just fine just as God intended. We don't need a Federally funded pandemic response team, the States got it. Now where else can I slash the budget."

As for whether or not it's working....when every State has its own disaster response plan, varying levels of funding, varying levels of basic intelligence and/or integrity.....you end up with different results state to state. If this were about education reform or something, maybe it wouldn't be so bad. But one State's inadequate response to the outbreak can have consequences for every other state in the nation.
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35498 on: March 13, 2020, 12:16:13 pm »

If nothing else, we're seeing an interesting exercise in States Rights:  the Feds aren't doing much, but all the states seem to be taking their own action.

Holy cow, is that part of the system actually working?

Re: financial stuff - it would be cool if we had something like the Year of Jubilee - just erase all debt.  I bet you could argue that the impact of simply simultaneously declaring all loans fulfilled is better than creating money to pay them all off.

There's kind of one big problem there. A lot of that loan money was loaned out against bank deposits. With a 10% fractional reserve system, annulling the loans would roughly wipe out 90% of all account holdings. Banks would just no longer have the assets on their books to pay out their liabilities. The liabilities is what they owe others: your account holdings represent what the bank owes you, the outstanding loans represent what others owe the bank. You've just wiped out the positive balances from the bank's books while leaving their own debts intact. All banks would immediately file for bankruptcy, to avoid being lynched in a run on the bank, and the few meager pennies on the dollar would be paid out in the liquidation hearings to the bank's creditors, who are the account holders.

I'm sure there are many more problems with the idea but I'm not an economist, but I can tell you, the value of bank deposits is guaranteed by the value of the outstanding loans.

So, you can see, you can't just "annul all loans", that's the same as "abolish all banks and delete everyone's account, positive or negative". The best you can do is that the Fed buys debt then forgives the debt. However, this would cause it's own issues:

With the fractional reserve system, if 1 trillion dollars was originally banked, then the bank had 1 trillion on hand, and could lend out 900 billion of that, which would then be deposited, and 90% of that remainder lent out, etc etc. The end result is that there's 10 trillion in deposits, but a lot of that is tied up in debts.

You come along and buy all the bank debts and forgive them. That's $9 trillion worth of debt. but hold up, who gets that money? It's the creditors, who are the banks. The banks now have $10 trillion in deposits, and $10 trillion in cash and no outstanding debt from anyone.

So, since they have $10 trillion in deposit, and an equal amount of cash, and they "haven't lent any out", they can now lend out $9 trillion worth, then that gets deposited, then they lend out $8.1 trillion, and so forth. And the end result is that there are $100 trillion in bank deposits and $90 trillion in debts.

Now, at this stage the Feds have a real problem. Inflation is through the roof, and the banks are actively trying to lend out $90 trillion dollars, so they're offering really low interest rates. All that extra credit in the system means that the Fed's main tool for controlling inflation - Reserve bank interest rates - isn't having any effect, since the banks just ignore it since they've got so much spare cash they're trying to lend out, and the more they lend, the more they have.

Final result: Economy destroyed, massive inflation, impossible to save, and anyone who had their savings in a bank account is homeless and eating dirt because a loaf of bread now costs $50.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 01:15:30 pm by Reelya »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35499 on: March 13, 2020, 01:10:59 pm »

that's the same as "abolish all banks and delete everyone's account, positive or negative".
Yes, what's wrong with that?  Your deposit account is, in fact, a loan to the bank (except for the reserve ratio).  So yeah, you'd wipe out that debt too.  This is specifically not repaying debt (which would result in the type of things you mentioned), but writing it off.

For 90% of the US population (or more) that would be a benefit - most people owe far more to banks (mortgage, student loans, car loans, credit card debt) than the banks owe them.  What's the statistic? More than half the people have less than $500 in their accounts or something tragically nonsensical like that?

Also I was only being half serious. I don't think anyone would ever really eliminate all accounts like that, but it may be an interesting thought experiment.
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Dunamisdeos

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35500 on: March 13, 2020, 01:15:09 pm »

It's not a bailout, it's just a no-interest loan you can pay back whenever you feel like it and defer taxes on.

Totally different.

Less inflammatory edit:
Coronavirus has made it to VA, they closed the schools for two weeks as a minimum.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 01:59:20 pm by Dunamisdeos »
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Telgin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35501 on: March 13, 2020, 02:13:30 pm »

There hasn't been much response in SC here so far, but I do live in Columbia and right next to the airport, so if we start having much intervention I'm expecting shutdowns here.  The University of South Carolina has probably already suspended classes and I just didn't hear about it.

Work went to voluntary work from home status starting next week through the end of the month, but mostly because leadership in LA told us so.  I'll probably take some advantage of the work from home status since I can work remotely with no issues, but I feel a little guilty doing it for reasons I'm having a hard time articulating.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35502 on: March 13, 2020, 02:33:47 pm »

It's not a bailout, it's just a no-interest loan you can pay back whenever you feel like it and defer taxes on.

Totally different.

Less inflammatory edit:
Coronavirus has made it to VA, they closed the schools for two weeks as a minimum.

Closing schools is an interesting one. The obvious upside is removing a group of children from a semi-clean (at best) environment where they spend a lot of time in close proximity to other illness vectors students.

For grade schools (K-12), the parents will have to stay home from work to take care of the children, which is a problem with some jobs. Also, for many children, school lunch is the only meal they can rely on.

For college, the dorms are the only stable home some of them have, they will lose the job they are paying for school with when they leave, and they are travelling a good distance; possibly another country to return home (which means they will be exposed to illnesses they may not have an immunity to, and bring them back to share).
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Folly

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35503 on: March 13, 2020, 02:55:33 pm »

Trump just announced a new National Emergency, for the coronavirus.

He and his cronies were very emphatic that they do not want anybody to get tested for the virus, unless they are already very sick. At that point they will have to follow a complicated flowchart to get a positive internet diagnosis and then locate an approved testing center where they can be swabbed and get their results in 4-6 weeks.

It's really alarming just how little this administration understands.
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TamerVirus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35504 on: March 13, 2020, 03:05:36 pm »

You'll have to have rely on your state government at this point  :-\
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