All right...since it was noted that there's not much to talk about, and we have a midterm election literally two weeks away, let's talk about the horse race. In a regular election year, we'd have been talking about polls and demographics and shit for six months or more.
Basically there's three sets of elections to pay attention to:
1. Governors
2. Senate
3. House of Representatives
First up, governors:
There are 39 state and territorial governorships up for election this year, an unusually large number. 28 of these are currently held by Republicans, two by independents, and the remaining nine by Democrats. Which means a good opportunity for Democrats to take a majority of governorships. On the face of it, that doesn't seem to be much of a prize -- governors don't make law. BUT -- as California and some other blue states have shown, they can certainly choose to drag their feet on implementing Federal law, refuse to implement Federal law, or push their state legslatures to make laws that fill in the gaps left by repeal of Federal laws.
Having a friendly governor also certainly helps a candidate during the 2020 election, especially in battleground states.
Races to watch:
With outgoing Rick Scott term-limited and running for Senate, the governor's race pits two relative unknowns, Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Congressman Ron DeSantis (R). DeSantis set the tone for the race the day after Gillum (an African-American) won the primary by telling Floridians "not to monkey this election up". It's been a virtual toss-up all summer and fall, but polls are beginning to show Gillum taking a bit more of a lead.
Governor Bill Walker (I) was in a three-way race with former Senator Mark Begich (D) and former State Senator Mike Dunleavy. In a bit of local weirdness, Walker initially ran on a combined Democratic-Libertarian-Alaska Independence Party primary, but when Begich entered the primary race, Walker withdrew from the coalition and ran as an independent. Walker was polling around 25%, as was Begich, while Dunleavy was polling high 30's to low 40's. Realizing that the Dems were splitting the vote (and faced with a harassment scandal that caused Lt. Governor Byron Mallott to resign from office), Walker killed his own re-election campaign and threw his support to Begich. Dunleavy is still outpolling Begich, but it's a much tighter race now.
Incumbent governor Bruce Rauner (R) is in a fight for his political life against businessman and venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker (D). Rauner has alienated a lot of the Republican base in Illinois by not being a social red-meat conservative, and alienated a lot of Democrats in Illinois by not being a Democrat (and butting heads constantly with the Democratic state House speaker Mike Madigan). Pritzker has outraised Rauner by about 3:2 and outspent him 2:1. Latest polls have Pritzker winning by 15-20 points, and it looks likely that the state governorship will be back in blue hands. Rauner can count himself victorious if he manages to leave office without being convicted of corruption, which has virtually become a tradition in Illinois.
With the incumbent Republican Governor term-limited, this race has come down to Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and state Representative Stacey Abrams (D). You've probably heard of this race, as Abrams has filed a lawsuit and called on Kemp to resign as Sec. of State after it was revealed that his office had suspended or revoked over half a million voter registrations (6% of the Georgia electorate), disproportionately affecting minority voters in doing so. Polls show this race very tight, well within the margin of error. Claims of vote suppression and/or voter fraud are almost certain to arise both before and after the election, no matter the outcome.
Perennial red-meat conservative Sam Brownback left his governor's post in January of this year (after crippling the state's economy) to be Trump's Ambassador-at-large for Religious Freedom (not a joke -- this is his title), leaving Lt. Jeff Colyer holding the very empty bag. Colyer lost by an extremely thin margin in the primary to red-meat firebrand and Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R). If that name sounds familiar, it's probably because he was the head of Trump's Voter Fraud commission that later disbanded because they couldn't find any voter fraud. He's also been notorious for making it incredibly hard for minority voters in Kansas to vote and similar to Georgia's Kemp, throwing voters off the rolls for various bullshit all while screaming about an epidemic of voter fraud.
Surprisingly, this race has turned into a toss-up. For one, third party challenger Greg Orman is siphoning up to 10% of the votes, predominantly moderate Republicans. State Senator Laura Kelly (D) has found her footing and her base is energized by all of Kobach's shenanigans. Kelly has also received a huge list of endorsement from state-level Republicans who have no love for the sort of politics Kobach embodies, and all three of the major papers in the state. While Kobach's endorsements have come from Trump, Pence, Hannity, Ted Nugent, Ann Coulter and Joe Arpaio.
This will be one to watch -- a lot of Kansan Republicans have seen the damage that Bible-thumpers like Brownback and Kobach did to the state's budget, and they're unhappy. Economics frequently trumps (no pun intended) social issues.
Incumbent governor and noted douchebag Paul LePage (R) is term-limited (a fact that many Mainers..Maineites? Mainians? are probably whispering prayers of thanks for). LePage was -- before Trump came on the scene -- the guy that would show up in the news for saying something and everyone was like "Did he really just say that? On TV? With everyone watching?"
But with him out of the picture, this race is between businessman Shawn Moody (R, formerly I), Attorney General Janet Mills (D) and State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I). Maine is one of those quirky states where an independent can win statewide --one of its sitting Senators is former governor Angus King (I).
The primary election itself was quirky, with the state using ranked-choice voting for the first time, which LePage threatened to invalidate the election results because of, calling RCV "the most horrific thing in the world". A petition actually raised enough signatures to block the use of RCV, until it was put to a public referendum in June, which reconfirmed that the public wanted RCV. The general election will not use RCV however.
Polling suggests Hayes is pulling about 8% of the vote, from both sides of the aisle, and Mills has been outpolling Moody by about 8 points, after the race was a dead heat in August.
Incumbent Governor Brian Sandoval (R) is term-limited, leaving the race between Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and Steve Sisolak (D), a local politician in Clark County (i.e. Las Vegas). Of note is that Sandoval declined to endorse Laxalt. Sandoval leaves office with a net +37 favorability rating, one of the most popular governors in the country. The lack of endorsement certainly hurts Laxalt among the pro-business, socially moderate Republicans that Sandoval represents.
Polling has had this race as a tossup since the primaries, with recent polls diverging as much as R+5 and D+6.
Also of note is independent candidate Ryan Bundy (yep, of the "let's take over a wildlife refuge FOR FREEDOM; oh shit, we ran out of snack bars" Bundys). Thankfully, not even polling 1%.
From most popular governors to the LEAST popular governor, we go to Oklahoma where outgoing and term-limited Mary Fallin has a whopping 74% disapproval rating.
Sadly, Oklahoma is so drenched in red that it's unlikely to change control of the governor's mansion. Businessman Kevin Stitt (R) is running after winning a bruising primary that resulted in nearly a 3-way tie, then a bruising runoff that he won by only 9 points.
By contrast, former Attorney General Drew Edmondson sailed to victory in his primary and had most of his war chest available for the general election. September polling had Stitt up by 4-6 points, but there's been a lack of good polling data through October. If Edmondson still has cash on hand to blanket the airwaves late, this could tighten up significantly at the finish line.
Incumbent governor John Kasich is term-limited (notice a pattern yet?), leaving the race to former Senator and current Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) and former Attorney General Richard Cordray (D). These two actually ran against each other before for Attorney General, with DeWine beating Cordray by 1.2 percent.
If polls are any indication, that could be the victory margin this time around as well. Most polls for the last month have been within the margin of error. This is one to watch as Ohio has been a core battleground state for several Presidential electoral cycles and whichever party has an ally in the Governor's mansion has an inherent edge.
DeWine is a mixed bag, pollicy-wise. Anti-abortion and against same-sex marriage but staunchly pro gun-control.
Incumbent Governor Scott Walker is NOT term-limited because Wisconsin lacks term limits (what the F, WI? Cap that shit!) and is running for a third term against State School Superintendent Tony Evers. In a mirror of the Oklahoma situation, Walker had virtually no opposition in the primary and steamrolled his one opponent with 91.6% of the vote. While Evers won the Democratic nomination out of a field of eight candidates (plus seven more who withdrew before the primary).
Polls through September showed Evers with anywhere from a 4-10 point lead, but the most recent poll by Marquette shows Walker with a very narrow lead,within MOE.
Wisconsin is another battleground state (though traditionally blue) that was one of the linchpin's to Trump's victory. A Democratic win here could have dividends in 2020.
Damn, that took a lot more work than I expected. I'll work on the Senate and House entries later on.
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Topic: AmeriPol thread (Read 4468048 times)