Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[hector13]

They can take a while, especially if none signup before a game.

[pisskop]

doll replaces TheWetSheep.  Deadline resumes at 0800, or ~20minutes from now


If there are any questions doll, you may pm them to me

[doll]

I am traveling right this second so the only activity I can guarantee in the short term is I'll have my full analysis up to this point out over the next eight hours.
Hopefully I can do it beforehand but I'm in a train so the network is spotty at best.

[doll]

fillipk
In the first post of the game, you voted for Hector13.
Why hector?

TBF
Why are you so afraid of lynching someone?
By definition, the decision of the town is 4/6 uninformed guesswork (and so theoretically mechanically random) and 2/6 pure scumwork.
Is it better or worse to make a purely personal decision targeting 3/5 rather than letting a 33% biased group try to decide on 4/6?



The basic concept of this game can basically be called 'find one scum to win'.
In pure mountainous mafia, scum win if a scum player is in the top two least lynch-able players. Town need to fit both of these slots with town players who are not killed by mafia to win, which is often quite hard to achieve.
This, on the other hand, is not a hard game. Any scum player who actually irrevocably slips up and outs themselves will lose the game for scum, as every member of the scum team must be lynched.
Town, on the other hand, needs only lose half it's members, or at worst three. This gives a margin of leeway incase any member of town screws up, such as by making a gamble on a player at L-1 and hammering scum by mistake.

The only real fear (until we lynch mafia) is that we put a player at 'L-1' and allow them to self hammer. This has already been stated in the thread, but it's so obviously true and relevant that it bears repeating.
With this in mind, we must unfortunately assume that any player who does do this has the same causal responsibility as a player who actually places the hammer.

Mountainous is always interesting because mechanically it's very hard to actually approach true randomness in lynching, so you can't really consider average values very well.
Fortunately, unlike in straight mountainous, where the usual method is based around the inherently biased lynch preferences of players who a cleared by flipping from being lynched, a player could conceivably lead town simply by refusing to be lynched, which scum cannot do and win the game.
The probability for a win from this is exactly even.

Spoiler: ugly calculations with worse annotations (click to show/hide)

T3/5*T2/4 = 30% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*M1/2 = 10% chance loss
T3/5*M2/4*M1/3 = 10% chance loss
M2/5*T3/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
Remainder = 30% chance loss

Lynching a random player out of six options has very good outcomes though, if we can push past the scum and manage to do it.

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

RVS coming in the next post I guess

[doll]

Conveniently, this setup allows me to issue ultimatums (it lets you do so too).
I will not vote for any player who has not adequately outlined their position on the following (agreeing with another player is fine):
Is this setup townsided?
If not, is there any reason not to use the 'unlynchable martyr' technique and just have a town player claim, avoid lynches, and generate the lynches for the town using random.org (or w/e)?

Actually that's it for RVS since hector has already promoted discussion.

Fun fact: when reading over this thread before it went up for replacements, I felt the gut instinct to hammer Hector13. If I was playing from the start, I would have done so. This leads me to ask:
Hector13
Which players would have, in your opinion, not put themselves at L-1 if they were scum.

TheBiggerFish
1) Why is fillipk scummy?
2) Why don't you want scum to adjust their play based on your posts? Isn't this a good indication that someone is actually scum?

TDS
Where did you go?

doll
Why does it seem like you're edging towards volunteering not to be lynched, when it's clearly a bad idea in a game which exists for the purpose of getting lynched?

Imic
You appear to be considerably less ready than you had lead me to believe.
Where are your posts?
What's going on?

fillipk
Why did TDS unvote?
Why did Hector13 switch the post order of you and TDS? Was it really just an honest mistake caused by quoting while in the post window? Is there such a thing?
Why did Hector13 unvote?
Why am I asking you so many questions?
Why am I voting TheBiggerFish

[fillipk]

fillipk
In the first post of the game, you voted for Hector13.
Why hector?

Just a random vote, as stated before my vote doesn't mater unless it gives someone the ability to self hammer so I did it to get these questions asked and see how people would respond to a random vote in a mountainous mafia.

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

Gut reaction to him being at L-12.  Don't know why TDS unvoted, I'm asking him the same thing.

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

RVS coming in the next post I guess

I second this question, though i have an idea as to why i would do that.

Conveniently, this setup allows me to issue ultimatums (it lets you do so too).
I will not vote for any player who has not adequately outlined their position on the following (agreeing with another player is fine):
Is this setup townsided?
If not, is there any reason not to use the 'unlynchable martyr' technique and just have a town player claim, avoid lynches, and generate the lynches for the town using random.org (or w/e)?

I'd say its townsided because the mafia has a hard time coming back from any mistake they make, thus the best strategy is to just have everyone generate lots of content and create the most opportunities for mafia to make mistakes.  As for my ultimatum: I will not seriously vote for any player not engage in a meaningful discussion with the rest of the players.  If you are less active but post on a regular basis with decent content that is fine.

fillipk
Why did TDS unvote?
Why did Hector13 switch the post order of you and TDS? Was it really just an honest mistake caused by quoting while in the post window? Is there such a thing?
Why did Hector13 unvote?
Why am I asking you so many questions?
Why am I voting TheBiggerFish

1. Hell if I know
2. Not likely an honest mistake as it was a super formatted post, thus the reason I think he did it was to try and change the narrative and see who went along with it, if TDS was scum he might have tried to promote the idea that he unvoted first and I'm the scum because of that, it was just another test which is what we should be doing all the time.
3. No reason to leave the vote on, he could be doing something else with his vote during the day to find scum and it makes it more convenient to do that if you are not voting.
4. Probably because you think I'm [redacted] and want to confirm those suspicions or prove them wrong
5. To try and get me to think you agree with him that I'm scum even though he has put out no evidence for that point, you could have your own reasons and if you do I'm sure to find them out now.

Oh and before I forget Hector13

[hector13]

doll

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

What makes the order of the posts important? I was addressing a similarity, so put the posts next to each other sans fluff so others could see it.

I was posting using my phone at the time, and I was responding to TDS, so it was convenient for me to take the particular quote from the post that I had already quoted first, and then proceed to editing in fillipk's.

Fun fact: when reading over this thread before it went up for replacements, I felt the gut instinct to hammer Hector13. If I was playing from the start, I would have done so.

Why?

I've never played with you before, but your posts in the theory thread suggest you have a fair amount of experience with mafia, and that you're also a thoughtful, rational player.

Hammering someone in RVS doesn't strike me as something an experienced and/or logical player would do

Hector13
Which players would have, in your opinion, not put themselves at L-1 if they were scum.

I think scum!TDS, probably. He tends to post less, so it'd be a bit harder for him to come across as Town and I don't think a self-vote would help that. I'm sure he knows this, and he has the experience to make up for it. Assuming his scum partner was on the wagon, he'd only have to convince two townies to vote him before self-hammering.

fillipk

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

Gut reaction to him being at L-12.  Don't know why TDS unvoted, I'm asking him the same thing.

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

RVS coming in the next post I guess

I second this question, though i have an idea as to why i would do that.

Do you not have questions of your own?

These things happened before doll was in the game, why wait 'til now to bring it up?

fillipk
Why did TDS unvote?
Why did Hector13 switch the post order of you and TDS? Was it really just an honest mistake caused by quoting while in the post window? Is there such a thing?
Why did Hector13 unvote?
Why am I asking you so many questions?
Why am I voting TheBiggerFish

1. Hell if I know
2. Not likely an honest mistake as it was a super formatted post, thus the reason I think he did it was to try and change the narrative and see who went along with it, if TDS was scum he might have tried to promote the idea that he unvoted first and I'm the scum because of that, it was just another test which is what we should be doing all the time.
3. No reason to leave the vote on, he could be doing something else with his vote during the day to find scum and it makes it more convenient to do that if you are not voting.
4. Probably because you think I'm [redacted] and want to confirm those suspicions or prove them wrong
5. To try and get me to think you agree with him that I'm scum even though he has put out no evidence for that point, you could have your own reasons and if you do I'm sure to find them out now.

You offered your position on questions 2-4, despite not being privy to the whys behind them.

Why did you not answer the first question, especially considering the question pertains to something you also did, and answered one later on the same subject?

As an aside, you think too highly of me

Oh and before I forget Hector13

I don't like it when it's not immediately obvious why someone is voting for someone else.

You defended me over the weekend citing your thoughts on my reaction test (it wasn't a gambit as I had nothing to lose from someone else hammering me there) even though I hadn't really made them clear beyond "I don't think anyone is going to hammer anyone else during RVS" so you weren't really open to my thought process.

The vote could be an extension of that, but that seems a lot like buddying... particularly in light of your answer to question 2 from doll.

[fillipk]

fillipk

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

Gut reaction to him being at L-12.  Don't know why TDS unvoted, I'm asking him the same thing.

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

RVS coming in the next post I guess

I second this question, though i have an idea as to why i would do that.

Do you not have questions of your own?

These things happened before doll was in the game, why wait 'til now to bring it up?

So I do have questions of my own back here

As for waiting till now to bring it up, I don't think the question is super important but I support it being asked.

fillipk
Why did TDS unvote?
Why did Hector13 switch the post order of you and TDS? Was it really just an honest mistake caused by quoting while in the post window? Is there such a thing?
Why did Hector13 unvote?
Why am I asking you so many questions?
Why am I voting TheBiggerFish

1. Hell if I know
2. Not likely an honest mistake as it was a super formatted post, thus the reason I think he did it was to try and change the narrative and see who went along with it, if TDS was scum he might have tried to promote the idea that he unvoted first and I'm the scum because of that, it was just another test which is what we should be doing all the time.
3. No reason to leave the vote on, he could be doing something else with his vote during the day to find scum and it makes it more convenient to do that if you are not voting.
4. Probably because you think I'm [redacted] and want to confirm those suspicions or prove them wrong
5. To try and get me to think you agree with him that I'm scum even though he has put out no evidence for that point, you could have your own reasons and if you do I'm sure to find them out now.

You offered your position on questions 2-4, despite not being privy to the whys behind them.

Why did you not answer the first question, especially considering the question pertains to something you also did, and answered one later on the same subject?

As an aside, you think too highly of me

I offered my opinion because I was asked and I shared the reasons why I would do such things if I was in their position.

Question 1 didn't pertain to something I did, and the only reason i didn't answer it is because I have no idea why he unvoted in the same way as me.  It could be buddying but that makes no sense for he scum to do, could be an honest mistake but I doubt the hell out of that, at least until TDS posts more

Oh and before I forget Hector13

I don't like it when it's not immediately obvious why someone is voting for someone else.

You defended me over the weekend citing your thoughts on my reaction test (it wasn't a gambit as I had nothing to lose from someone else hammering me there) even though I hadn't really made them clear beyond "I don't think anyone is going to hammer anyone else during RVS" so you weren't really open to my thought process.

The vote could be an extension of that, but that seems a lot like buddying... particularly in light of your answer to question 2 from doll.

Maybe I'm building a strawman of you as someone who is taking gambits and risks in an attempt to find scum.  Or even if they weren't gambits in the first place they can be used as one and I'm crediting you with those, even if you didn't intend that. As for answer two, you never mentioned that you posted from phone so I am to assume you posted from a computer where you could format, thus the only reason you would put TDS first is if you were lazy or you were trying something, you don't seem lazy so I assumed you were trying something and thus I shared my thoughts on what that may be Anyway your my top pick for town right now, your reactions and answers have been too honest to be hiding something, that's why I'm voting for you.

I have to ask though, why wouldn't you take credit for the gambits I'm saying you did?

[doll]

Just a random vote, as stated before my vote doesn't mater unless it gives someone the ability to self hammer so I did it to get these questions asked and see how people would respond to a random vote in a mountainous mafia.

Sure

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

Gut reaction to him being at L-12.  Don't know why TDS unvoted, I'm asking him the same thing.

Why didn't you think this gut reaction through before changing your vote?
At what point exactly (give a link) did you realize the supremely obvious fact that quick hammering scum would make you a pariah?

Most importantly: why did you respond with "I don't know" rather than speculating in a game which has no mechanical information.

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

RVS coming in the next post I guess

I second this question, though i have an idea as to why i would do that.

Of course you have an idea.
Why don't you post it?

Conveniently, this setup allows me to issue ultimatums (it lets you do so too).
I will not vote for any player who has not adequately outlined their position on the following (agreeing with another player is fine):
Is this setup townsided?
If not, is there any reason not to use the 'unlynchable martyr' technique and just have a town player claim, avoid lynches, and generate the lynches for the town using random.org (or w/e)?

I'd say its townsided because the mafia has a hard time coming back from any mistake they make, thus the best strategy is to just have everyone generate lots of content and create the most opportunities for mafia to make mistakes.  As for my ultimatum: I will not seriously vote for any player not engage in a meaningful discussion with the rest of the players.  If you are less active but post on a regular basis with decent content that is fine.

In your view then, activity is the primary marker of townhood in this game?

fillipk
Why did TDS unvote?
Why did Hector13 switch the post order of you and TDS? Was it really just an honest mistake caused by quoting while in the post window? Is there such a thing?
Why did Hector13 unvote?
Why am I asking you so many questions?
Why am I voting TheBiggerFish

1. Hell if I know
2. Not likely an honest mistake as it was a super formatted post, thus the reason I think he did it was to try and change the narrative and see who went along with it, if TDS was scum he might have tried to promote the idea that he unvoted first and I'm the scum because of that, it was just another test which is what we should be doing all the time.
3. No reason to leave the vote on, he could be doing something else with his vote during the day to find scum and it makes it more convenient to do that if you are not voting.
4. Probably because you think I'm [redacted] and want to confirm those suspicions or prove them wrong
5. To try and get me to think you agree with him that I'm scum even though he has put out no evidence for that point, you could have your own reasons and if you do I'm sure to find them out now.

Oh and before I forget Hector13

[/quote]
1. Then speculate on it.
2. Is TDS scum with Hector?
3. Why is being unvoted different from leaving your vote on yourself?
4. Actually, it's because of your activity pattern. Is this (activity pattern) a good or bad thing in my view?
5. Actually I'm voting TBF because out of the active players town stands the least to gain from his continued presence. I lean toward suspecting that he might be scum. Why am I voting for a player I lean toward suspecting to be scum?

fillipk
Why didn't you ask me a question?
Do you not care about finding out my role, say, because you already know it?

Why?

I've never played with you before, but your posts in the theory thread suggest you have a fair amount of experience with mafia, and that you're also a thoughtful, rational player.

Hammering someone in RVS doesn't strike me as something an experienced and/or logical player would do

From my point of view:
I am clear.
If I hammer a random other player, I put the game into a better than 50% chance of a win even assuming I am unvoteable if I hammer scum.
By creating discussion without any risk to town (so long as you are town), you were the most clearly pro-town player at that time.
Quickhammering you would regardless create discussion the next day, so your activity would not necessarily be missed.

Oh and before I forget Hector13

I don't like it when it's not immediately obvious why someone is voting for someone else.

You defended me over the weekend citing your thoughts on my reaction test (it wasn't a gambit as I had nothing to lose from someone else hammering me there) even though I hadn't really made them clear beyond "I don't think anyone is going to hammer anyone else during RVS" so you weren't really open to my thought process.

The vote could be an extension of that, but that seems a lot like buddying... particularly in light of your answer to question 2 from doll.

fillipk
Your response to this contributes nothing other than literal WIFOM about whether or not a player was posting from phone, and even that you back away from almost straight away.
Why are you so desperate not to push on another player?
Why are you now voting Hector13?

[doll]

doll

Hector13
Why did you quote TDS before fillipk in your post, when your post raises the concern of their similarity where the order of the posts is extremely important?

What makes the order of the posts important? I was addressing a similarity, so put the posts next to each other sans fluff so others could see it.

I was posting using my phone at the time, and I was responding to TDS, so it was convenient for me to take the particular quote from the post that I had already quoted first, and then proceed to editing in fillipk's.

Missed this.
Post order can imply one player was copying the reaction of the other.
Are you saying that you were concerned purely by the posts indicating a scumteam, rather than scum mimicking town?

[TheDarkStar]

Conveniently, this setup allows me to issue ultimatums (it lets you do so too).
I will not vote for any player who has not adequately outlined their position on the following (agreeing with another player is fine):
Is this setup townsided?
If not, is there any reason not to use the 'unlynchable martyr' technique and just have a town player claim, avoid lynches, and generate the lynches for the town using random.org (or w/e)?

1. Yes, see my analysis below.
2. If one town player volunteers to not be lynched and picks lynches at random, then they have these odds in lynching town: Day 1: 3/5; Day 2: 2/4 or 3/4; Day 3: [1/3 - this would be a win already] or 2/3 or [3/3 - this would be a loss] or 2/3, depending on the events of the previous day; Day 4: [2/2 - this would be a loss] or 1/2  or [2/2 - this would be a loss] or 1/2, also depending on the lynches of the game. Adding up the probabilities, we get a (3/5)(2/4) + (3/5)(2/4)(2/3) + (2/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2) = 60% chance to win and a (3/5)(2/4)(1/3) + (2/5)(1/4) + (2/5)(3/4)(1/3) + (2/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2) = 40% chance to lose. Let's do it.

Spoiler: probability tree (click to show/hide)

3/5:
    2/4:
           win
    2/4:
           2/3
                win
           1/3
                lose
2/5:
     3/4
          2/3
              1/2 - win
              1/2 - lose
          1/3
               lose
     1/4
          lose

TDS
Where did you go?

Right here .

The probability for a win from this is exactly even.

Spoiler: ugly calculations with worse annotations (click to show/hide)

T3/5*T2/4 = 30% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*M1/2 = 10% chance loss
T3/5*M2/4*M1/3 = 10% chance loss
M2/5*T3/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
Remainder = 30% chance loss

Not quite, see my analysis earlier.

TDS, fillipk
Why did you unvote hector?
Why did you both unvote, when he wasn't at L-1 after fillipk unvoted?

As hector self-voted, I saw him as much more scummy. Hence, I unvoted to signal that.

[doll]

I'm pretty sure there's an error in the following, my additions in Bold Purple

Spoiler: probability tree (click to show/hide)

3/5:
    2/4:
           win
    2/4:
           2/3
                win
              1/2 - win
              1/2 - lose
                       
           1/3
                lose
2/5:
     3/4
          2/3
              1/2 - win
              1/2 - lose
          1/3
               lose
     1/4
          lose

Which is what I put here:

The probability for a win from this is exactly even.

Spoiler: ugly calculations with worse annotations (click to show/hide)

T3/5*T2/4 = 30% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
T3/5*M2/4*T2/3*M1/2 = 10% chance loss
T3/5*M2/4*M1/3 = 10% chance loss
M2/5*T3/4*T2/3*T1/2 = 10% chance win
Remainder = 30% chance loss

As hector self-voted, I saw him as much more scummy. Hence, I unvoted to signal that.

I was going to say 'but scum can't hammer without outing themselves, which is autolose', but we had not at that point decided as a group to ostracize (reverse policy lynch) the speedhammerer of scum.

[Imic]

Wow.

[doll]

Wow.

Spectacular contribution my man.

Even though nobody likes fillipk, he's right that you'll not get lynched by being inactive.

[doll]

Since nobody asked, my current reads:


SCUM
fillipk

Town
Hector13

Unknown
TheDarkStar

Useless
TheBiggerFish
Imic

Moe as fuck
doll



With how good our chances are anyway (50%) and how scummy fillipk has been, I'm quite happy to declare myself as the unlynchable town leader and lynch hector, then roll randomly out of the non-fillipk players for the rest of the lynch order.
If fillipk is scum, this plan is autowin.
If hector is town and fillipk has a random role, this plan has a 2/3 chance of winning.

Since this plan already incorporates the hurdle of my not being lynchable, even though I know I'm town, I'm happy to commit to it right now.
However, I suppose I would prefer to by lynched D2. It's another layer of safety (from my point of view) and fillipk has confirmed multiple times that I am town in his mind and his vote is on Hector13, so I know that he should have no problem with a Hector-Doll lynch order. If he changes his mind about me after slipping so strongly, I'll be even happier to assume he's scum.
Incidentally, my gut feeling is that Hector13 and fillipk have been acting like a corny mid-grade scumteam, the sort of thing you see in a BM where the better player ends up bussing the other fairly quickly due to legitimately hunting and pushing on their poor play. If this is true, then fillipk is still scum and all is good so long as we don't lynch him.
Unvote


Vote Hector13