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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1420750 times)

IronyOwl

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11610 on: November 11, 2016, 04:12:16 am »

Turnouts don't indicate to me that a hidden pool of working class voters turned out in droves to vote for Trump.  He didn't ride some massive wave of enthusiastic resonance with the rust belt. The GOP turnout didn't drastically change.  The Democrat turnout did.  It dropped by millions.
So, going back over this more closely, it occurs to me that Republican turnout rose or fell by a million between McCain, Romney, and Trump. Democratic turnout dropped by six million from Obama's second term to Clinton. But... it also fell by three and a half million between Obama's terms. So... was that also contempt/complacency, or something else?

Digging deeper to try to get some scale reveals weird things. The following chart is terrible to read and I'm sure there's a pretty graph somewhere on exactly this, but my feeble searching skills were unable to dredge it up from every other graph/scale/point about presidential elections. Apologies if I screwed up any of the math/transcribing, there was a lot of it.

RepRTotalRChangeDemDTotalDChangeTotalTotalChange
Trump60M-1MClinton60.5M-5.5M120.5M-6.5M
Romney61M+1MObama66M-3.5M127M-2.5M
McCain60M-2MObama69.5M+10.5M129.5M+8.5M
Bush62M+11.5MKerry59M-1M121M+10.5M
Bush50.5M+11.5MGore60M+12.5M110.5M+17M
Dole39M+0Clinton47.5M-2.5M94.5M*-9M
Bush39M-10MClinton45M+3M103.5M*+12.5M
Bush49M-5.5MDukakis42M+4.5M91M-1M
Reagan54.5M+10MMondale37.5M+2M92M+7M
Reagan44M+5MCarter35.5M-5.5M85M*+5M
Ford39M-Carter41M-80M-

So like I said earlier, Obama's second run heralded a drop in both total and Dem voters, though that appears to be at least loosely true of every president save Reagan and... Bush?! What the... Anyway, Obama's first run was a massive increase to both, which you could probably explain with charisma and hope versus some other stuff... except that Gore had an even larger increase. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Speaking of which, Reagan's second term had a slightly smaller boost but with a proportionately much smaller voting base, which could make the case for charisma and hope I guess. As did Bush Jr for both terms, which is beyond bizarre, until you notice the slumps from Bush Sr. The first one could quite possibly just be lack of enthusiasm over not-Reagan, but the second and holding pattern seem to suggest a fairly depressed Republican voting base; the subsequent and meteoric rise of Bush Jr could be largely that bouncing back, though I have no idea what would sustain that kind of push other than 9/11. Which... might actually be a good answer?


Overall though, I think the main takeaway is that raw voting numbers are not a good measure of very much, or else very much isn't a good indication of voting numbers. You've got your expected slumps in second term voting when everyone realizes they're not doing what they're supposed to and a pair of high-voter charisma hogs, but you've also got weird things like (Bill) Clinton wobbling fairly steadily while Gore looks like a superstar.
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martinuzz

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11611 on: November 11, 2016, 04:22:02 am »

Again, people cannot provide adequately for themselves, yet are demonized when they point this out.
Yep. One of the main underlying problems for not just healthcare. A state that does not uphold a framework in which the people can provide adequatly for themselves is doomed to become a failed state, for it loses it's legitimacy of social contract.
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

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Vilanat

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11612 on: November 11, 2016, 04:32:03 am »

What strikes me as most worrisome and absurd at the same time is that presidency, congress, and House of Representatives all go to the Republicans. That's just too unrepresentative for the voting outcome, with the Democratic candidate winning the popular vote. You can't have a democracy when half of your voting base is left completely unrepresented. But what I understand, one of those is up for new elections in 2 years?

Not an expert on U.S elections, but as far as i can tell, aren't they are all being voted on separately? if so, what's the relation to the popular vote?

Also, a small reminder, the popular vote thing is rather meaningless as an indication so long as it has no real bearings, since, for example, if i was a republican from California or New York, i wouldn't even bother going to vote with the current system, but would have if it was a direct democracy. i haven't done actual research, but from a superficial look at populations and voting trends, i'd say this affects republicans more than democrats since Dems lead in the populated states is so vast, it makes voting for republicans rather meaningless, unlike Republicans whose lead in their most populated states is narrower, therefor allowing for some hope and encouragement for Democrats to vote.

in Short, it wouldn't be far fetched to maintain that in a direct vote, California alone could have turned that vote around and made Trump also win the popular vote.
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wierd

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11613 on: November 11, 2016, 04:38:47 am »

Because basically 90% of the population of the US is centered in 3 major metro areas (Chicago, NYC, and LA), a direct democracy would heavily bias those three areas wants over the needs of the rest of the country.

Basically, if it were a direct democracy (and not a democratic republic, with an electoral college), then these three areas could demand the sun, the moon, the stars in the sky, and a bag of potato chips, and the rest of the states would have to just "eat it."

That is why it is broken up the way it is.  I assume you live in the EU?  Imagine if 90% of the population lived in Paris, Berlin, and (just for fucks to get a reaction) Rome.  Do you want those three cities to dictate the entire EU's policy?  The US does not want the equivalent.
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Powder Miner

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11614 on: November 11, 2016, 04:41:47 am »

You're very much overestimating those three metro areas, though I overall agree with you
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martinuzz

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11615 on: November 11, 2016, 04:47:47 am »

The reverse is also true though. If in your hypothetical example, the 10% from NOT Paris, Berlin and Rome would get to demand the sun, the moon, the stars in the sky and a bag of potato chips, and the other 90% would have to swallow it, it would not take long for the them to secede and become their own city states.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 04:49:51 am by martinuzz »
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http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

wierd

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11616 on: November 11, 2016, 04:50:16 am »

it is probably closer to 60%, yeah, but my way gets the point across better.

This is true, if it were divided with each region getting an equal number of electors.

THis is not the case.  Those areas get very big chunks of the pie. CA gets 50 EC votes. Kansas? 6.

It is based on the number of representatives they can send to congress, which is based on population.

It is designed to prevent both axes of tyrrany. That of the minority, and that of the majority.

(Naturally, everyone bitches about it EVERY election cycle, because they dont get their way. Nevermind that this is BY DESIGN.)
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 04:51:53 am by wierd »
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Powder Miner

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11617 on: November 11, 2016, 04:58:53 am »

It's around 14%, believe it or not. The US is a very very big place, with a lot of cities and a lot of people

Now, you take the top four states, that's a whole third of the population right there
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 05:02:31 am by Powder Miner »
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wierd

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11618 on: November 11, 2016, 05:03:23 am »

meh, ok.  i'll yeild. 

still, also because it is so big, there are local subcultures, and views.  Much like the French are very different from Greeks.  Either would take exception to the other getting to be bossy.  Likewise with Ca progressives, vs Tx conservatives.

to have some semblence of balance, we favor deadlock over favoritism, as a rule.
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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11619 on: November 11, 2016, 05:04:41 am »

I'm only being so specific here because I've got a bit of an odd interest in demographics :v
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IronyOwl

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11620 on: November 11, 2016, 05:07:23 am »



Also, a small reminder, the popular vote thing is rather meaningless as an indication so long as it has no real bearings, since, for example, if i was a republican from California or New York, i wouldn't even bother going to vote with the current system, but would have if it was a direct democracy. i haven't done actual research, but from a superficial look at populations and voting trends, i'd say this affects republicans more than democrats since Dems lead in the populated states is so vast, it makes voting for republicans rather meaningless, unlike Republicans whose lead in their most populated states is narrower, therefor allowing for some hope and encouragement for Democrats to vote.

in Short, it wouldn't be far fetched to maintain that in a direct vote, California alone could have turned that vote around and made Trump also win the popular vote.
This is a good point and further explains why my hideous chart is so confusing.
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The kitchenette mold free, you move on to the pantry. it's nasty in there. The bacon is grazing on the lettuce. The ham is having an illicit affair with the prime rib, The potatoes see all, know all. A rat in boxer shorts smoking a foul smelling cigar is banging on a cabinet shouting about rent money.

UXLZ

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11621 on: November 11, 2016, 05:18:10 am »

It's around 14%, believe it or not. The US is a very very big place, with a lot of cities and a lot of people

Now, you take the top four states, that's a whole third of the population right there

Top 10 cities is about 17% of the population iirc, and it drops really rapidly from there.
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wierd

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11622 on: November 11, 2016, 05:20:49 am »

the popular vote is a giant, reanimating nonsequitor.

We use an Electoral College. We use one for very good reasons. It has lots of warts, yes, but it works.

The number of electors granted each state is loosely based on their population. It balances the power of those regions, so they cannot go full bullshit noble and mandate crystal glass beds from the rest of the union.

Naturally, for some reason the US no longer teaches civics in highschool, and people are WRONGLY instructed through popular media that the US is a democracy. It is not, it is a democratic republic, and is one for very compelling reasons.  The popular vote is a nonsequitor. it means NOTHING in terms of the outcome of the election. What matters is the electors awarded to each candidate. This usually matches popular vote fairly closely, but not always.

In this case, at least from when I last looked at Politico for numbers, the difference in the popular vote for the nation was some 200k votes. That's roughly equal to the amount of people who voted for trump, vs voted for hillary in my home state of Kansas. Or, the difference in Fl, take your pick.

It is just a useless figure that people who didnt get the person they wanted look at, and get all pantytwisted about. 

If you want to understand a US election, you have to look at each and every individual state, and the reasons why each state's electorate voted the way it did. No easy task.



Regardless, these protests are bullshit. The president is NOT SELECTED BY POPULAR DEMAND, BECAUSE THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRACY.  Protesting who won, because it isn't the candidate you wanted, will accomplish nothing but increased division in the populace, increased negativity, and quite likely-- physical and financial harm to many innocent people.

Angry about a mutant Ommpa Loompa who uses agent orange to keep his hair from returning deep green getting elected president?

Protesting is the LEAST effective way to go about it.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 05:25:55 am by wierd »
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UXLZ

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #11623 on: November 11, 2016, 05:24:30 am »

What are some of those very good reasons?
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