Um. ARs are not RTDs, except in the sense that monopoly is an RTD. People complain because the game is meant to be about coming up with clever designs, with an element of uncertainty, not simply seeing who can roll higher.
And, like, with stuff like 2d4 and that weird (d4+2d2-2) or whatever it is, people have improved that aspect, making extreme luck less likely. I don't think a complex card drafting system is needed.
The idea of pulling multiple cards sounds like what you can do in Draignean's system, where you have multiple dice per turn, and can either do multiple projects, or spend extra dice on a single project to get better odds.
It's the trickiest bit of an arms race, to be honest. Batreps suck (I say as I'm currently avoiding finishing mine), but this is always the part that makes me worry the most. Too much chance and you step on the toes of the part of the game that should matter most, the thoughtful design of new equipment, too little and the game degenerates into whichever side has a better encyclopedic knowledge of warfare in [INSERT TIMELINE]- at which point you can open a private salt mine whenever your interpretation differs from your player's desires. There's a buncha methods for trying to deal with the issue, but they've all got their issues.
In the deck system, the problems relate to the period and predictability of the deck. By period, I refer to the number of cards it drawn before the average is guaranteed to occur (so, for a d6 system, period 6 would indicate that the deck is composed of sequences of [1 2 3 4 5 6] with randomized internal order). Short periods make the average more consistent, but then the luck factor comes down to the predictability. Even though the average is guaranteed, the two sides may end up with drastically different abilities to predict their die roles. Lets say we're using a period six system, and empire 1 gets {[3 1 2 6 4 5] [4 3 1 2 5 6] [ 1 6 2 3 4 5]} and empire 2 gets {[6 1 5 4 2 3] [5 3 4 2 6 1] [ 5 2 6 1 4 3]}. Both sides have the exact same final average, and keep a close running average throughout each segment of the first eighteen turns. Empire 1, however, is distinctly advantaged in that it gets lucky in being able to call high rolls consistently in its the latter sections of its period, which is a rather powerful ability indeed. The deck system fixes the issue of one side getting a potentially higher average roll, but replaces it with the entirely new problem of one side being able to potentially call their rolls more easily. This problem is capable of being ameliorated via absurd complexity.*
In the bell curve system, which strives to force the average by making extreme rolls more unlikely (by using some version of multiple dice, 2d4, 2d3+1d2-2, 1d4+2d2-2, whatever) you don't actually fix the problem, you just make it more unlikely. While this is a nice balm statistically speaking, you run the risk of exaggerating extreme points when they inevitably occur. If a six is rare, and one empire happens to roll one on a really important piece of tech, it's going to be even more difficult to counter for the opposing side to drum up a counter. While the rolls are more likely to be averaged, using a bell curve means that a side who gets lucky in just the right place at just the right time can keep an advantage longer than in a uniform distribution system since it's unlikely for someone else to make a similar breakthrough.
In the lock step system, where both sides get the exact same rolls, the issues are a bit more technical. From a statistical standpoint, it is guaranteed to be ideal- both sides will always have equivalent averages, and there is no ability for one side to predict rolls with greater accuracy. It does however mean that you've got to accept some tricky situations. Research credits, for instance, would have be outside the system of random numbers- truly random elements in an otherwise harmonious system. It's also only functional for standard AR games in which both sides roll equivalent numbers of dice, but in that genre it's (in my opinion) probably your gold standard for preserving the randomness that generates anticipation and fosters dopamine and still preventing one side another from receiving an unfair boon or bitch-stick from the fickle hand of fate.
* Create a set composed of all the sets of rolls you think you're going to need. If you think you need a 1000 rolls for your arms race to end, and you're using a period 6 deck,you'll have 167 sets comprising 1-6 in random order. Form a linear array from these sets. Iterate through this array with a step size equal to the deck's period. At each iteration, generate a random integer n between 0 and period/2. Randomly interchange the values within n steps forward and n steps back, repeat until you reach the end of the array.
So,
{[6 1 5 4 2 3] [5 3 4 2 6 1] [ 5 2 6 1 4 3]}
With 1,2, as its random values becomes
{[6 1 5 4 2 5] [3 3 4 2 1 2] [ 6 5 6 1 4 3]}
Since the interchanged blocks cannot become larger than the system's period, you're still guaranteed to stay VERY close to a perfect average within a period of 9. It's important to note that this system does not make it impossible to predict what rolls come next, just harder. To make it impossible, you need a have a random integer with a max value > period/2. Each additional step in that direction, however, erodes the deck system's ability to force an average over time and brings the array closer to a random state.
No, I haven't thought about this too much, why do you ask? (I am, however, absolutely procrastinating on the Spire Race turn by writing this)
Author
Topic: Arms Race/Design Bureau Hub/General OOC (Got a Discord Channel now) (Read 112268 times)