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[MetalSlimeHunt]

No reason to think the polls aren't correct. French polls have been historically accurate, and these demonstrate a lack of significant movement over this past week with or without a large protest vote. Even if Le Pen has got shy voters, she'd have to overcome the top of her error distribution multiple times to break 50%.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but let's not act like being alt-right just means you win against all odds. Didn't happen in the Netherlands with Geert Wilders, and he was in a way better position than Le Pen. Even if all the communists stay home, Macron has the endorsement of all the rest of the left, the vigorous endorsement of the center, and even some endorsement from the center-right. Le Pen's base is the far-right and let this motherfucker burn voters, which just doesn't stack up.

If anything, I suspect National Front's history will still come back to bite it, even with Jean-Marie Le Pen expelled. "I'm just saying, we don't know that neo-nazis are bad people" is a hard reputation to shake.

[smjjames]

I'm just giving it a good dose of skepticism after the polling faliure in the US since I don't know all that much about the way the French do their polling, like if they're making the same mistake the US did.

Most likely it's accurate though, and Clinton never had that big of a lead on Trump.

[redwallzyl]

apparently while everyone has been distracted by the EU and US the Balkans are at it again.

http://www.politico.eu/article/albania-prime-minister-edi-rama-eu-faces-nightmare-if-balkans-denied/
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-nato-urge-calm-after-macedonia-violence/

[smjjames]

The Balkans have been a powderkeg since the Romans.

Though, the 'little union' (as the Albanian PM describes it) is interesting. That is going to be problematic however all right, because there is still a Serbian minority in there, and that minority is going to become an even smaller minority.

Seems like a consequence of the breakup of Yugoslavia not going along ethnic lines.

[smjjames]

I'm just giving it a good dose of skepticism after the polling faliure in the US since I don't know all that much about the way the French do their polling, like if they're making the same mistake the US did.

Most likely it's accurate though, and Clinton never had that big of a lead on Trump.

2 percentage point lead, with an error range that gave the result that we saw with about 30% chance.

Stupid Electoral College though. Enough inserting Ameripol into the Europol thread however.

[smjjames]

Yeah, the US election started looking like it would be a typically competitive and close election, and that's how it came out, despite claims of wipeouts by Hillary.

Anyway, on the Albanian-Kosovo thing, I looked around at Wikipedia, and as of 2007, most Kosovars wanted to remain as they were. But, that was 10 years ago and right before they delcared independence. In the article, looks like the opposition party in Kosovo want to join into an union and Albanian nationalists want that too.

That said, any kind of border change or shift is going to majorly unsettle the Balkans, which is a bit sabre rattly on the best of days.

[Sheb]

Statistically, Le Pen would require an unprecedented polling error to win.

Which would be all the more surprising since the first round polls were so accurate.

[martinuzz]

Just in case, I think I'll go copyright 'Le Pen, du vin et du Boursin'

[Loud Whispers]

Possible coup in Macedonia

Today's action was condemned by European Union Commissioner Johannes Hahn, who said “violence has no place in parliament,” according to his post on Twitter.

balkan boogaloo 2

[smjjames]

Just in case, I think I'll go copyright 'Le Pen, du vin et du Boursin'

What's a Boursin?

[martinuzz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqn7NTwIwmk

this one better: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxuK53tdFl8

[Sheb]

They actually ran the first TV ad in France.

[smjjames]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqn7NTwIwmk

this one better: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxuK53tdFl8

Lolwut the second one with being oblivious to the wheat thresher incoming. Also, looked like the guy was trying to grab the girls ass at first in the second one.

[martinuzz]

Wouldn't be surprised. Sexual innuendo was the norm rather than taboo, for a lot of Boursin commercials (and many other contemporary commercials for that matter).

In other news, Macron managed to get into a diplomatic fight with RUssia even before becoming president.
He forbade the RUssian tv media RT, press agency Sputnik (both run by the Russian government) from attending his campaign meetings, accusing them of spreading Russian state propaganda and fake news.

The Russian ministry of foreign affairs has reacted, calling it a scandal, and deliberate and unveiled discrimination against the Russian media, "and this happens in a country that has always been vigilant on guarding freedom of opinion".

Margarita Simonjan, editor in chief of RT says this is the beginning of the end of freedom of speech in France.

Macron's staff sticks to their statement that RT and Sputnik are systematically and deliberately spreading false news to damage the pro European candidate.
In februari, RT spread a rumor that Macron is gay, even though he is married to a twenty year older woman. This forced Macron to deny this publicly.

[Sergarr]

Some more info on that factory visit thing that Russian media (and Loud Whispers) spinned as Le Pen's "victory".

“I don’t consider that a presidential campaign is for pulpit remarks with promises that can’t be kept. So I am not doing it for Whirlpool. I didn’t seize on cases in progress, hot-topic restructuring cases, because that is complete demagoguery, speaking frankly,” Macron told Ruffin on France 2. “That was done five years ago, 10 years ago… My silence, it isn’t indifference. My silence is a refusal to manipulate situations. It’s too easy. Because what am I going to do? I’m going to get up on a truck and say ‘With me, it won’t close,’ and everyone knows it isn’t true.”
Minutes later, Macron arrived and the striking workers let him have it. “Marine Présidente!” they cried out. “Get lost!”, “Dirty banker!” others called out. Eventually, the independent centrist was able to invite workers behind the factory gates for a long, lively discussion, away from the cameras. His campaign did broadcast the 45-minute exchange on Facebook Live, a feed picked up live across the 24-hour news networks and featured on nightly news broadcasts.

The battery on the microphone he was using – and passing around for long questions and comments from workers, union representatives, and Ruffin himself, who was there, too – gave out after 35 minutes. “It doesn’t matter,” he said, and spoke louder to make himself heard. He told the workers what he could do for them if elected, in particular not signing off on Whirlpool’s redundancy plan if it isn’t appropriate and seeking a credible buyer with a sustainable solution to save the plant’s jobs.

But in contrast to the populist note struck by Le Pen, he was straight with the workers, telling them what he couldn’t do, too. “Banning the payment of dividends or forbidding a company from closing a site it has decided to close is not possible, would even be counterproductive,” he said. “Why? Because there is a freedom of enterprise and free property in our democracy,” he said. "So on that, I won’t bring an answer because it’s not true. If I do that, no one will come invest in France,” he explained.

The in-depth exchange concluded far more calmly than it had begun, with handshakes all around. In the event, Macron made good on an opportunity to sound and look presidential that Le Pen effectively handed him, leaving her lightning incursion looking frivolous.

“In coming to provoke him in his native city, Marine Le Pen offered Emmanuel Macron an occasion to show that he wasn’t afraid of initiating physical contact with employees that are victims of wage competition in Europe,” local regional newspaper La Voix du Nord editorialised on Thursday morning. “The Whirlpool sequence in front of the cameras marks the real launch of the second-round campaign. It remains to be seen whether 10 minutes of smiling selfies will be more effective than three quarters of an hour of tense dialogue on the search for a solution for [the plant’s] recovery.”

He's the Savior of France and the Europe. It's him!