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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards Game over Town Victory  (Read 56266 times)

fillipk

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origamiscienceguy has replaced 4maskwolf
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Giving waitlisted people the ability to murder non-responsive players was a great idea. Need to do that more often.

Megggas

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Re: Beginner's Mafia LVII: The Extra Guards (9/9)
« Reply #346 on: November 08, 2015, 01:12:57 am »

Real life has kept me pretty busy today and I'm too tired to do much analysis at the moment.  Here's some quick remarks.

AbstractTraitorHero:
Well, I should say that lynching ATH isn't the only option we have if he isn't killed N1, but anyway: I would lynch ATH D2 because either:

a) he's fakeclaiming cop, and I don't see why a townie would do that.

or b) he's telling the truth, but we won't know for sure until after his flip, which requires death. If the scum don't NK him N1, they may very well do it N2 anyway, because the odds of him investigating scum increase from 2 in 7 on N1 to 1 in 2 on N2, assuming we don't lynch scum (in which case the odds drop to 1 in 4, assuming his N1 investigation is alive/1 in 5 if not) and the person investigated on N1 is still alive (otherwise it would be 2 in 5 if we missed scum/1 in 5 if not)

We wouldn't have to lynch him, necessarily, if he said who he investigated N1, in case the scum do NK him N2. That way we can focus our attention on actually finding scum rather than lynching our Cop. However, surviving to D3 would necessitate a lynch I think, because I don't think the scum would leave the cop alive for 2 nights straight. (pending flips from the D1 + 2 lynch, and the N1 + 2 NKs, obviously. Cop may flip long before then.)

PPE: NJW, and Tolyk really, there might not actually be a cop in this setup, which is another issue for us to consider. At this point I think he was fakeclaiming, but this being a BM, I'm not sure if it was a n00b town move, and I'd rather not risk losing the cop D1 if he is telling the truth. It's not a pleasant situation to be in :-\

Think I'll stick an FoS on NJW for the moment though. You're not asking many questions, which I find bothersome.

I found a way to quote but i can only quote one quote from a previous page but this post is where i started to get a bad feeling and looking at it i don't understand why exactly basically i suspect you but reading through your posts you don't seem suspicious i mean sometimes your posts are just fluff instead of content but i feel thats a null tell I'm also slightly guilty of this at least i feel like everyonce and a while my posts are fluff instead of useful content so i think I'm suspicious of you simply becuase if your scum you could lead the town to its death.
Why do you think of hector13 as a potential "leader" of the town?  Do you think that his posts during Day 1 contributed to the Roo lynch?

TheDarkStar:
ATH is giving off a town vibe to me and he's the only one claiming cop. There's still a chance that he's lying and that we only have a jailor, but scum generally don't draw attention to themselves Day 1.

I voted for roo because, while he might have been scum defending his ally, he was also acting like scum trying to push a lynch on someone.

Why mention the fact that roo never made an outright claim if it was implied heavily enough that multiple people asked him about it?

Roo would have voted for ATH if he (roo) was the cop but not if he (roo) was scum. If ATH got lynched and flipped cop, then roo would have been the next lynch; if ATH flipped scum, roo would have been confirmed as cop. Roo's hesitancy to vote for someone he apparently knew to be scum was the main reason that I voted for him.
In your first post of Day 1, you asked Roo why he thought ATH was scum, but it was only a few posts earlier where Roo had declared ATH a troll and unvoted him.  Later, Roo posted a bunch of town reads and a null read on the "troll".  I understand how Roo's hesitancy was suspicious, but how was Roo trying to push a lynch on someone?  Why did you think at the time of your first post that Roo considered ATH to be scum?

hector13:
Megas, Tolyk, Tomasque, 4mask. Who is your top scum-read, and why? Who is your top town read, and why?
After rereading the posts of Day 1 while the thread was locked, I considered Tomasque to be my top scum read, followed by NJW2000.  My reasons are here.  At the moment, my feelings are mostly the same, though I'm in the process of further evaluating NJW2000, TolyK, and 4maskedwolf.

NJW2000:
Meggas: What do you think of the chainsaw defence mentioned above - as I've said, I am not experienced with this, and while I find scum to give ok advice on simpler things (from my last mafia - the scum I attacked helped me see the flaw in an argument I made that woulda got me lynched) I'd like your opinion.
Hector13 had already thrown a pressure vote on TDS so that TDS would answer his questions.  TDS's post seemed to originally be a response to hector13, based on the fact that his vote and questions toward you only came as a PPE.  Since TDS posts so irregularly, I'm inclined to think that was just happenstance, rather than chainsawing.  However, this is my first game and I don't think I have enough experience to offer an informed opinion.  TolyK and 4maskedwolf, what do you think about NJW's question?

TolyK:
PPE:
Why is finding the jailor so important?
if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.
Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.
Why do you feel so strongly about ATH being scum now?  He made dumb mistakes and used faulty reasoning during Day 1 as well, but you seemed more forgiving toward him back then.  For example, you explained one of the reasons why he'd misread stuff.
BTW, ATH has stated he has disgraphia (?), which makes it hard for him to write well (read too?).
You also didn't think it was a good idea to policy-lynch him during Day 2.
Given I haven't had much time lately, and Pfp, I'd say that Roo still stands in my suspicion list, plus ATH should probably not get lynched today, and not policy-lynched tomorrow unless no more info comes out. If he's a cop, having him confirm a townie and then getting lynched to confirm the townie... not the best plan.
What changed?

I'm going to bed.  I'll probably have much more time to post during Sunday.

PPE:
origamiscienceguy:  Welcome aboard!  We definitely want to know your thoughts on the events of Day 1 and ATH's cop claim.  Can you also answer all the questions that were directed at 4maskedwolf? 
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AbstractTraitorHero

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Real life has kept me pretty busy today and I'm too tired to do much analysis at the moment.  Here's some quick remarks.

AbstractTraitorHero:
Well, I should say that lynching ATH isn't the only option we have if he isn't killed N1, but anyway: I would lynch ATH D2 because either:

a) he's fakeclaiming cop, and I don't see why a townie would do that.

or b) he's telling the truth, but we won't know for sure until after his flip, which requires death. If the scum don't NK him N1, they may very well do it N2 anyway, because the odds of him investigating scum increase from 2 in 7 on N1 to 1 in 2 on N2, assuming we don't lynch scum (in which case the odds drop to 1 in 4, assuming his N1 investigation is alive/1 in 5 if not) and the person investigated on N1 is still alive (otherwise it would be 2 in 5 if we missed scum/1 in 5 if not)

We wouldn't have to lynch him, necessarily, if he said who he investigated N1, in case the scum do NK him N2. That way we can focus our attention on actually finding scum rather than lynching our Cop. However, surviving to D3 would necessitate a lynch I think, because I don't think the scum would leave the cop alive for 2 nights straight. (pending flips from the D1 + 2 lynch, and the N1 + 2 NKs, obviously. Cop may flip long before then.)

PPE: NJW, and Tolyk really, there might not actually be a cop in this setup, which is another issue for us to consider. At this point I think he was fakeclaiming, but this being a BM, I'm not sure if it was a n00b town move, and I'd rather not risk losing the cop D1 if he is telling the truth. It's not a pleasant situation to be in :-\

Think I'll stick an FoS on NJW for the moment though. You're not asking many questions, which I find bothersome.

I found a way to quote but i can only quote one quote from a previous page but this post is where i started to get a bad feeling and looking at it i don't understand why exactly basically i suspect you but reading through your posts you don't seem suspicious i mean sometimes your posts are just fluff instead of content but i feel thats a null tell I'm also slightly guilty of this at least i feel like everyonce and a while my posts are fluff instead of useful content so i think I'm suspicious of you simply becuase if your scum you could lead the town to its death.
Why do you think of hector13 as a potential "leader" of the town?  Do you think that his posts during Day 1 contributed to the Roo lynch?

TheDarkStar:
ATH is giving off a town vibe to me and he's the only one claiming cop. There's still a chance that he's lying and that we only have a jailor, but scum generally don't draw attention to themselves Day 1.

I voted for roo because, while he might have been scum defending his ally, he was also acting like scum trying to push a lynch on someone.

Why mention the fact that roo never made an outright claim if it was implied heavily enough that multiple people asked him about it?

Roo would have voted for ATH if he (roo) was the cop but not if he (roo) was scum. If ATH got lynched and flipped cop, then roo would have been the next lynch; if ATH flipped scum, roo would have been confirmed as cop. Roo's hesitancy to vote for someone he apparently knew to be scum was the main reason that I voted for him.
In your first post of Day 1, you asked Roo why he thought ATH was scum, but it was only a few posts earlier where Roo had declared ATH a troll and unvoted him.  Later, Roo posted a bunch of town reads and a null read on the "troll".  I understand how Roo's hesitancy was suspicious, but how was Roo trying to push a lynch on someone?  Why did you think at the time of your first post that Roo considered ATH to be scum?

hector13:
Megas, Tolyk, Tomasque, 4mask. Who is your top scum-read, and why? Who is your top town read, and why?
After rereading the posts of Day 1 while the thread was locked, I considered Tomasque to be my top scum read, followed by NJW2000.  My reasons are here.  At the moment, my feelings are mostly the same, though I'm in the process of further evaluating NJW2000, TolyK, and 4maskedwolf.

NJW2000:
Meggas: What do you think of the chainsaw defence mentioned above - as I've said, I am not experienced with this, and while I find scum to give ok advice on simpler things (from my last mafia - the scum I attacked helped me see the flaw in an argument I made that woulda got me lynched) I'd like your opinion.
Hector13 had already thrown a pressure vote on TDS so that TDS would answer his questions.  TDS's post seemed to originally be a response to hector13, based on the fact that his vote and questions toward you only came as a PPE.  Since TDS posts so irregularly, I'm inclined to think that was just happenstance, rather than chainsawing.  However, this is my first game and I don't think I have enough experience to offer an informed opinion.  TolyK and 4maskedwolf, what do you think about NJW's question?

TolyK:
PPE:
Why is finding the jailor so important?
if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.
Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.
Why do you feel so strongly about ATH being scum now?  He made dumb mistakes and used faulty reasoning during Day 1 as well, but you seemed more forgiving toward him back then.  For example, you explained one of the reasons why he'd misread stuff.
BTW, ATH has stated he has disgraphia (?), which makes it hard for him to write well (read too?).
You also didn't think it was a good idea to policy-lynch him during Day 2.
Given I haven't had much time lately, and Pfp, I'd say that Roo still stands in my suspicion list, plus ATH should probably not get lynched today, and not policy-lynched tomorrow unless no more info comes out. If he's a cop, having him confirm a townie and then getting lynched to confirm the townie... not the best plan.
What changed?

I'm going to bed.  I'll probably have much more time to post during Sunday.

PPE:
origamiscienceguy:  Welcome aboard!  We definitely want to know your thoughts on the events of Day 1 and ATH's cop claim.  Can you also answer all the questions that were directed at 4maskedwolf? 
i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

Questins for townies
Do you believe I'm cop?
Who feels most suspicious?
Why was their no scum kill night 1?
Who feels most town?
Who do you think i should investigate/inspect (if you believe I'm cop)?
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Megggas

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AbstractTraitorHero:  You seem to have misread my question, so here it is again.  Why do you consider hector13 to be a potential "leader" of the town?  You said you were worried that he could lead the town to ruin if he's scum.  Do you think he led the town into lynching Roo?
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AbstractTraitorHero

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AbstractTraitorHero:  You seem to have misread my question, so here it is again.  Why do you consider hector13 to be a potential "leader" of the town?  You said you were worried that he could lead the town to ruin if he's scum.  Do you think he led the town into lynching Roo?
i consider hector13 the leader of the town becuase he's obe of the most frequent posters and he's the one to start a discussion or conversation he starts most conversations and he could have led the town into lynching roo but i don't believe he's solely to blame for that some of that blame rests on me and njw i believe he was the one who mentioned the soft "roleclaim" roo was doing i highly doubt that was roos imtention with what we know now.
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NJW2000

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Posting quickly - sorry about saying you were more experienced, meggas - you're just very calm and collected and I recalled seeing you in mafia somewhere before.

Quote from: ATH
Questins for townies
Do you believe I'm cop?
Who feels most suspicious?
Why was their no scum kill night 1?
Who feels most town?
Who do you think i should investigate/inspect (if you believe I'm cop)?
These are very quick, as far as I can see, so I may answer them fast:
I have no idea. Your play is too confusing. I believe its a possibility. I think you could be any role, including jailor, tbh.
Hector, as I've said, but you look pretty dodgy with the whole roleclaim.
You if you're town? If they're scum, no clue, nobody seemed to have distinguished themselves that much otherwise but roo.
Meggas and TolyK  and Tomasque post a lot and hasn't done anything hugely suspiscious in my eyes, iirc (lack of time). Others have lurked somewhat game-breakingly, have done weird gambits, or have only gone for east targets.
If you're cop: massive dependence on who's lynched, but why not origamiscienceguy, we have little info on him? Or I personally would like to see Hector lynched/investiagted at least, but others seem to be sitting on the fence somewhat, to say the least, about my accusations. These seem like the better investigation candidates to me.
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origamiscienceguy

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Hello Everybody. I have never been an IC before, so this will be intresting. uuu... If I write in purple, it means I am not lying and I am trying to give genuine advice. If I write normally, then I am playing the game and may or may not be lying.

Anyways, back to reading...
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origamiscienceguy

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OK! First 12 pages finished. Here are my thoughts so far...

Just from looking at the threat title, I already know that there is a jail keeper. I also know that ATH claims cop and claims he investigated someone last night.
i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

I find this situation highly unlikely for the following reason.

We know that the Jailkeeper and the scum must have voted for the same person. Under normal circumstances, there is a very low chance of this happening. I find it more likely that both of them voted for ATH (because of the Cop Claim) and he therefore survived. This poses on problem however, ATH wouldn't have been able to post an action if that were the case. Because he would have been jailed.

I haven't finished reading though, so I may have missed something blatant.
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Megggas

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OK! First 12 pages finished. Here are my thoughts so far...

Just from looking at the threat title, I already know that there is a jail keeper. I also know that ATH claims cop and claims he investigated someone last night.
i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

I find this situation highly unlikely for the following reason.

We know that the Jailkeeper and the scum must have voted for the same person. Under normal circumstances, there is a very low chance of this happening. I find it more likely that both of them voted for ATH (because of the Cop Claim) and he therefore survived. This poses on problem however, ATH wouldn't have been able to post an action if that were the case. Because he would have been jailed.

I haven't finished reading though, so I may have missed something blatant.

Not necessarily.  The jailkeeper could also have picked the scum who submitted the NK and role blocked him.
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hector13

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Spoiler: Answers for ATH (click to show/hide)

Tomasque, you have been quite inactive during D2 so I think we need something from you. Just because ATH has "cleared" you with an investigation, doesn't mean you can meld into the background :P

My inability to figure out Lurker Tracker has made me forget what I was doing. It said Tomasque hadn't posted D2 but he has :'( Even if it is just one time...

More questions for NJW

RE: chainsaw defence, now I know what it is: I thought early-ish d2 it might be a pressure vote, a good tactic for someone in the middle of an attack, to see if they scummishly ramp up the agression themselves. It's possible that he's your scumpartner, but he only asked me to explain, suggesting he couldn't understand my admittedly poor reasoning and thought I was scum because of it. But really, I don't think scum would be particularly likely to accuse someone's post of being nonsense just to help out their scumbuddy. WIFOM, I guess, it wouldn't bee too subtle - but I haven't played as much, so I'd like to know your opinion on this, you being more experienced.

If you think your reasoning for voting me is poor, how are you expecting to get other people to follow you in getting me lynched?

Why do you think the scum partner of someone you are attacking would not try to defend them by saying you're talking nonsense? If they can convince the rest of the town you're an idiot, nobody is going to follow you, perhaps even for the rest of the game.
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NJW2000

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Hector13: questions from above post:

A) Yeah, some of my points were not explained or thought through well. By "poor reasoning", I meant my actual thought process as you saw, not my conclusions, which were simpler than my accusations at first. I originally attacked what you did bit-by-bit, noticing many examples of slightly off (contentless or super-obvious) play, as that's how I read it. However I needed, to get my now more accurate suspiscions, to look at all your activity and draw conclusions about what our most active player wasn't doing.

I said "poor reasoning" partly because he posted only after a few of my posts, before you helpfully got me to explain my thought processes more coherently and present a better argument that summed up the general scum sensation you were giving more accurately. But my first post accusing you there: yeah, that was bloody poor and a little confused, perhaps. You had to clarify it for everyone before you answered. But when we'd mostly finished the long quoting and textwall exchange, I felt my argument was in better shape, and better presented my views on why you were scum.

tl;dr: the way I went from the evidence to the accusation of scumminess was poor, the evidence selection wasn't great, but the actual scumminess was real, I believe. I don't mean by this I changed my argument halfway through: I was kinda looking at the whole thing the wrong way for me to give a very good argument.

B) I think this question comes from our differing views about the quality of my argument :P. As I see it: Person 1 presents a thought out if confused argument about why person 2 is scum, person 3 immediately declares that person 1 must be scum/mentally deficient because it's entirely bollocks and makes no sense, then Person 1 clarifies the whole thing, and ensures people actually understand the argument. Person 3 looks a bit odd now, especially if he keeps a vote on person 1. So I think this was too obvious a tactic and that scum would not have been able to convice everyone I was an idiot. However, if you think he did discredit me majorly in a chainsaw defence, well... what do I actually do now? As this requires me asking you if you think he's your scumpartner. Can I get a third opinion on the chainsaw defence bt TDS against me for Hector? I guess if he and you were scum and could convince everyone I was stupid without too much trouble, then he might actually seem scummier than if he let you ridicule me instead, because it would be a chainsaw scumtell. Am I getting into WIFOM here at all?


Hector13, question: ATH asked for no reasoning when he asked who we thought least scummy. So you just said "Meggas." One word. Erm, explanation? Can you see how to me this would look like your shown reluctance to get invovled with frequesnt posting non dodgy players?
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hector13

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Well I wouldn't think I necessarily have to say why I think someone was town... it also allows the scum to see what I think is town-telling behaviour, which I'm always hesitant to do.

I was reading through Megggas' posts to see whether I could get a read on them, this read was mostly town. Then I remembered I wanted to ask you about those things, and I had to find the post to ask you questions about before going back to saying why I thought Megas is town. This, plus issues trying to figure out Lurker Tracker, made me forget to do that.

I don't understand how a one word answer shows reluctance to get involved in a discussion though. If I didn't want someone to press me about my answers, I wouldn't have answered the questions.

Spoiler: on your response (click to show/hide)

Basically Megas has been reasonably active, offering theories and opinions about the goings on in the game, adopting something of a "thinking out loud" approach, and not just saying "this is what I think has happened, so that's what I'm going to push forward with", which is why I take issue with you.

In saying that, Megas, in that linked post you say you think that ATH and Roo are the same alignment. What are your thoughts now?

Spoiler: other things (click to show/hide)
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Megggas

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Questins for townies
Do you believe I'm cop?
Who feels most suspicious?
Why was their no scum kill night 1?
Who feels most town?
Who do you think i should investigate/inspect (if you believe I'm cop)?
1.  I'm leaning toward you being the cop at the moment.  I get the impression that after you found out you were the cop, you got really excited about it and were eager to use your role for scum hunting as soon as possible.  Speaking of which, your scum hunting has consistently been very rookie-ish and shortsighted.  At the beginning of Day 1, you tried to lure out scum into fakeclaiming and foolishly claimed cop far too early.  After Day 2 started, you wanted the jailkeeper to reveal who he targeted so that we could lynch that person for potentially being scum.  It doesn't seem like you fully comprehend how important the power roles are.  Most of the time, it seems like you type out your posts quickly and don't proofread them for grammar or clarify vague statements before you post.  Based on all this, I think that you're a newbie town.  I'm seriously doubtful that you are some kind of scum mastermind utilizing obfuscating stupidity or a townie troll.  Both would require more skill then I think you're capable of.
2.  Still evaluating.  I've been looking through the scum chat of BM LV to see what kind of advice Persus13 might be giving to the scum in this game.  That will probably impact my views significantly.
3.  I suspect that the jailkeeper intervened.  I'm also considering the possibility that 4maskedwolf was scum and didn't submit a kill due to inactivity.  In that scenario, his partner may have been the mafia rolecop and chosen to investigate instead of killing.
4.  Still hector13 at the moment.  He seems to be focused on scum hunting and generating discussion.
5.  Eh, I'm not sure if you should be asking us this.  This seems like info the scum could use to their benefit.  Decide it for yourself.

PPE: hector13, I'll respond later in about 4 hours.  Out of time at the moment.
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origamiscienceguy

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OK! First 12 pages finished. Here are my thoughts so far...

Just from looking at the threat title, I already know that there is a jail keeper. I also know that ATH claims cop and claims he investigated someone last night.
i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

I find this situation highly unlikely for the following reason.

We know that the Jailkeeper and the scum must have voted for the same person. Under normal circumstances, there is a very low chance of this happening. I find it more likely that both of them voted for ATH (because of the Cop Claim) and he therefore survived. This poses on problem however, ATH wouldn't have been able to post an action if that were the case. Because he would have been jailed.

I haven't finished reading though, so I may have missed something blatant.

Not necessarily.  The jailkeeper could also have picked the scum who submitted the NK and role blocked him.
Correct, but my point still stands.
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NJW2000

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Answers for Hector
Spoiler: other things (click to show/hide)
First (unquoted bit), fair enough, I guess, I expected a more process-of-elimination via scumtells thing, which wouldn't help scum as much.

RE: I can't do everything, you aren;t questioning everybody either stuff: Yeah, true, you said it before. I said before that you seemed focused on players that would be "easier" for scum.

RE:Evidence: as my point is about what you haven't done not what you have (everything but pressure less dodgy or more present players) I couldn't actually prove this with specific points. Anyone who wants to see this will have to look back through the game for your attacks on me, TolyK, Meggas or Tomasque - see if there are any, I mean. So when I say my selection of evidence was wrong, I shouldn;t have tried to use quotes to prove what I said.

RE: Chainsaw bit: ok, so you were just suggesting it to me. And not everyone who defends scum is scum.

Oh, and thanks for the scumchats, Meggas, they're here because I took a bit of time to find them.
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