Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[smjjames]

The first thing I notice is that the Friday marker has moved offshore and the Saturday marker is just barely touching land, that's an indication of it stalling just offshore for at least a day.

[RedKing]

11am update (they're releasing these a bit early lately):

Sustained winds steady at 130mph.
Movement has slowed slightly to 15mph.
Pressure steady at 943mbar.

Rainfall projections:
Coastal NC: 20-30", some areas 40"
SC, and Piedmont/western NC: 5-10", some areas 20"
Appalachians and other mid-Atlantic states: 3-6", up to 12" in some areas

Track now seems to have it skirting Wilmington before taking a turn to the SW and grazing the coast before making landfall around Myrtle Beach, then proceeding inland to Columbia, SC and then NW towards the junction point of NC, SC and GA. Still a good ways out though, so this track could change significantly prior to landfall (and after landfall, for that matter).

[smjjames]

11am update (they're releasing these a bit early lately):

Probably getting it out ASAP since the track is changing so much.

The Saturday marker is touching land even less, meaning the eye is likely going to stay just offshore for a long period of time.

[scriver]

That's good, right? Or will that aid flooding?

[smjjames]

It definetly won't help the flooding in any positive way, and the eye not making landfall means it'll be able to keep up it's strength longer, and then there's the stalling since it's moving slowly over a number of days before making landfall.

[sluissa]

You generally want them to move on through relatively quickly. When they linger it means. You get more rain, more flooding, longer periods of destructive winds beating on the same area, longer that emergency crews have to stay off the roads and can't help survivors, longer before cleanup can start. A slow storm is bad.

[TamerVirus]

Its pulling a Harvey, basically

[smjjames]

Not exactly a Harvey, since Harvey completely stalled for a while, but yes, it's going to linger for days in a way similar to Harvey.

[RedKing]

Worth taking a moment to remember the *four* other systems out there right now.

1. Tropical Storm Isaac which is projected to blow across the Lesser Antilles in the next 24-36 hours, heading westward into the Caribbean. Thankfully not projected to hit Puerto Rico (or any real islands) after the Lesser Antilles. Jamaica may see some effects early next week.

2. Hurricane Helene, which is a Category 1, and projected to swing back around towards Ireland and the UK. Worth keeping an eye on, as it may still be at Tropical Storm strength by the time it reaches the British Isles on Tuesday.

3. "Disturbance 1" in the Gulf of Mexico, which has a 60% chance to turn into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

4. "Disturbance 2" out in the mid-Atlantic, which has a 40% chance to turn into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. This one is already at 35deg N latitude, so the Northeast and Eastern Canada could be at risk if it develops.

[Dunamisdeos]

In my case it just turned sharply away from me, but i have plenty of close friends in SC/GA.

So what happens if Flo meets Disturbance 1.

[smjjames]

I doubt they'd even get close to each other (via spaghettimodels.com).

[RedKing]

Ye gods. There's two computer models that project the Cape Fear River at Fayetteville to crest at 75'. For reference, 35' is flood stage. 
Thankfully, those are outliers -- the median prediction is cresting at about 43', with a probable range (40% or better) of 37'-57'.

I mean, 8 feet above flood stage isn't good by any means. But 40 feet above flood stage? That's Noah's Ark-tier flooding. Record crest at this point in the river is 68.9', recorded in 1945 (also from a hurricane).

[Dunamisdeos]

Most I ever saw was 15 feet in a small local drainage creek during Floyd way back when.

Turns out it was carved into a ravine for that purpose.

[smjjames]

3. "Disturbance 1" in the Gulf of Mexico, which has a 60% chance to turn into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

4. "Disturbance 2" out in the mid-Atlantic, which has a 40% chance to turn into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. This one is already at 35deg N latitude, so the Northeast and Eastern Canada could be at risk if it develops.

They've changed those to 70% and 90% respectively for the 2 PM EST update. I thought the 2 PM update for Florence would be in early, guess not.

2PM update: Florence sped up slightly to 16 knots and weakened slightly to 125mph, track looks unchanged to me.

[RedKing]

One report of wave heights in the eyewall of 83 feet. I kinda wish I could see that, even though that's likely to be the last thing I'd ever see.

But yeah, down to a strong Cat3. Remains to be seen if it'll restrengthen tonight. One good thing about slowing offshore is that it gives the rain out in front of the track more time to cool the surface layer of water, which means less available energy to strengthen.

EDIT: Just went out to check the river. It's definitely higher than normal, flowing quickly, and...it's red. Like, sort of a hot cocoa reddish-brown. I'm using to seeing muddy rivers, but I've never seen it be this color before.