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[RedKing]

Godspeed you black emperor.


So the Great Carolinas Evacuation has begun, with SC ordering mandatory of its entire 187-mile coastline, including the not-insubstantial City of Charleston (pop. 134,385 [2016]). Estimates are that a million-plus Palmetto Staters are headed upcountry. I'm 42 years old, I've lived through more hurricanes than I have fingers, and I've NEVER seen South Carolina evacuate the entire damn coast.

Virginia is evacuating Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore, and the Navy is moving at least 30 vessels out to sea from the Norfolk Naval Yard.

North Carolina is lagging behind a bit in the mandatory evacs, with only the Outer Banks and parts of Wilmington (including the university) affected.

EDIT: Oh, and guess what we're getting 3 days in advance of this fucker? RAIN! Lots of rain! So the ground will be good and soggy when the main event arrives.

[Max™]

Ha ha, you're older than my balls, so you're older than balls, as I'm turning 38 tommorrow.

[RedKing]

Ha ha, you're older than my balls, so you're older than balls, as I'm turning 38 tommorrow.

Dang whippersnappers with your young, taut balls...


11pm NHC update just in, still steady at Cat 4, track has shifted northward a bit, putting landfall more in the Morehead City area than Wilmington. Slightly good news for me, as it moves the eye further east as it comes inland, bad news for Raleigh which now looks to be more or less directly in the path.

[smjjames]

So the Great Carolinas Evacuation has begun, with SC ordering mandatory of its entire 187-mile coastline, including the not-insubstantial City of Charleston (pop. 134,385 [2016]). Estimates are that a million-plus Palmetto Staters are headed upcountry. I'm 42 years old, I've lived through more hurricanes than I have fingers, and I've NEVER seen South Carolina evacuate the entire damn coast.

That just means they're taking this REALLY seriously. Though really, ALL of it? It's not even forecasted to go south of Charleston.

editwhiletyping: Theres probably an electoral consideration here, Gov. McMaster is up for election to a full term this year. So, naturally, he isn't taking any chances here. I suppose he might get criticised for pulling the trigger when he didn't need to, so to speak, but that's better than screwing up.

Ha ha, you're older than my balls, so you're older than balls, as I'm turning 38 tommorrow.

I'm younger than both of you, 35 here, also, slightly early happy birthday to ya.

[Max™]

Ha ha, you're older than my balls, so you're older than balls, as I'm turning 38 tommorrow.

Dang whippersnappers with your young, taut balls...


11pm NHC update just in, still steady at Cat 4, track has shifted northward a bit, putting landfall more in the Morehead City area than Wilmington. Slightly good news for me, as it moves the eye further east as it comes inland, bad news for Raleigh which now looks to be more or less directly in the path.

I wanna sig that young taut balls thing but I don't feel like changing my sig but know I was sorely tempted.

[scriver]

Well, this thread is once again succeeding in getting me worked up and scared even though I'm all over here. Take care, all of you all.

Notice that neither Carolina is mentioned in that statement. And states which are pretty much unaffected are. (West Virginia? dafuq?)

Maybe they're like me and can't tell their Virginias from their Carolinas

I might be forced to work outdoors and drive during this. Praise the free market.

You take especially much care and be safe.

[Doomblade187]

Notice that neither Carolina is mentioned in that statement. And states which are pretty much unaffected are. (West Virginia? dafuq?)

Maybe they're like me and can't tell their Virginias from their Carolinas

Wait. They aren't the same? :3

Down here in GA, we're not too worried. Maybe should be tho. I have to drive one of the main days. >.>

[RedKing]

Good morning from soon-to-be-renamed North Atlantis. Latest NHC predictions have Florence making landfall around Morehead City late Thursday night/early Friday morning as a Category 4 storm, then abruptly slowing waaaaaay down. Projections are that the eye will move about 150 miles NW over the course of two days. Rainfall totals have been upped to 15-20", with some localized areas seeing 30"+.

This shit is going to be bad. 

Also not convinced that the winds are going to die down drastically upon landfall. Eastern NC is a mostly wide, flat coastal plain with little in the way of obstacles and plenty of ponds, rivers, hog lagoons, etc. to draw some energy from. When Hazel hit in 1954, she barely slowed down and was still a Cat 3 by the time it got to Raleigh. My grandfather lived in Greensboro at the time (an hour and half west of Raleigh) and told horror stories of the damage there. Hazel then went all the way to New York and was still a Category 2 by the time it got to Buffalo.

Waiting to see the 11am update.

[smjjames]

Also, the Weather Channels page on Florence says that there are hurricane watch warnings issued for down past Charleston, halfway between there and Savannah.

Which would explain the evacuation of the entire SC coast and shows some foresight (if intentional foresight) on Gov. McMaster's part.

It begins, and Florence isn't even here yet. Really gives you a sense of the scale of the storm surge bulge.

11 AM update is up and the projection seems to have shifted south slightly? No observeable difference in the map that I can see. Though given it's a three hour update, it's not neccesrily going to change by a huge amount.

edit: Based on new information, Gov. McMaster has cancelled mandatory evacs for two counties and part of one..

[Max™]

Hmmm, nullschool is showing a weird little loop tomorrow: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/12/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-70.04,29.15,3000/loc=-72.120,31.331

Click through the next couple hour bumps from there.

[smjjames]

The only weirdness I'm seeing is after it hits the coast when the wind display splits from the pressure display and the wind display jumps around. Tried going back and forth on the time scale multiple times and still not really seeing any loop.

[RedKing]

11 AM update is up and the projection seems to have shifted south slightly? No observeable difference in the map that I can see. Though given it's a three hour update, it's not neccesrily going to change by a huge amount.

Looks like the southerly bend is after landfall. The 8am Sunday position is now more around Moore County, whereas previously it was up around Rockingham County. Downside for me is that puts us on the right "shoulder" of the storm instead of the left. More wind, maaaybe a bit less rain?


EDIT: 2pm update describes the storm as "getting more organized and increasing in size". Still a low Cat 4, around 130mph, with hurricane-force winds out to 60-mile radius and TS force winds out to 170-mile radius.

[Dunamisdeos]

I'm up in VA so I'm relatively safe, but we still expect some major damage/flooding, especially in the nearby city.

[RedKing]

5pm update:

Still at 140mph, the track is now stretching towards the west after landfall, putting it in the NC mountains by Sunday. This is good, the models are projecting less stalling (and hence less catastrophic flooding). The track is also a little more southerly, with the eye going over Fayetteville instead of Raleigh. Worse for Charlotte, better for the Triangle.

Still at 140mph and steady.

Central pressure has dropped 5mbar to 945mb. Rainfall estimated at 15-25" with isolated maxima of 35" (5 inch increase from previous warnings).


EDIT: Dunamisdeos -- what part of VA?


DOUBLE EDIT: Going to start tracking a few things, just to give everyone a sense of how it's going here.

Eno River depth gauge: 1.67' (20 inches)
Eno River flow rate: 8.96 cubic feet per second
Precipitation(total in 1 hour):   0
2 hours:   0
3 hours:   0
6 hours:   0
12 hours:   0
24 hours:   1.04"
2 days:   1.04"
7 days:   1.43"

Nearest Waffle House: OPEN

For reference, the last couple of times I nearly got flooded out, the river was at 17' depth and ~5000 cubic feet per second.

[Dunamisdeos]

I'm in Richmond, the James River basically floods if you dump a cup of water into it. I am far enough away from the river that i'm not to worried, and I've got water and supplies just in case it's worse than expected.

I actually really appreciate these updates, especially waffle house.