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[Tawa]

...grumble.

If you must know.

[FallacyofUrist]

Graagh.

If Loud Whispers isn't scum... and it doesn't seem likely now... okay. Here's another Fallacy List.

Scum probability:
ICs:
4maskwolf: not quite active around here... why is it that ICs lurk?
NQT: odd. The fact is that the two ICs have in fact posted much less often than the other players.
This makes it difficult to ascertain their alignment.
~~~
Hunters:
FallacyofUrist: no, I'm not going to write arguments against myself.
Loud Whispers: seemed semi-scummy day 1 because of lack of activity and passiveness, but has made up for it.
Tawarochir: still seemed semi-scummy day 1, but for different reasons- instead of passiveness, he attacked... but didn't post as fast as some others, and his arguments... I tasted weakness on them. He could be scum trying to hide behind averageness.
Urist McCoder: passiveness, weakness, bandwagoning, light touches, and nonsensical arguments- my top scum pick.
~~~
And this guy:
H4zardZ1: I think I can count the number of times he posted D1 on one hand. Lurker.
~~~
The Dead:
Hiddenleafguy: much like Urist McCoder and H4zardZ1, combining the negative traits of both. We lynched him, but unfortunately he turned up town. Noob town.
Graknorke: very effective scum hunter, and if I were the jailer, I'd be protecting him over the ICs(because he was much more active than they were). Skilled town.
~~~

My conclusion is that... okay, at the moment my only conclusion is that Urist McCoder is scum. At least one other player besides myself is scum also. And unfortunately, it seems likely to me that one of the ICs is scum. Would you like to hear my reasoning?

[Tawa]

Would you like to hear my reasoning?

Sure.

[FallacyofUrist]

Okay...

To start with, if we eliminate the probability of the other players being scum, only the ICs are left to be scum.

Assuming I'm town and Urist McCoder's scum, we subtract two players from the seven remaining, then another two(the ICs themselves), leaving three players left. Now if I prove(nearly) these three town, then the only remaining choice is an IC.

Loud Whispers:

snip

After all that, I find it hard to believe Loud Whispers is scum, unless he's willing to put forward an incredible amount of effort.

H4zardZ1 is a lurker- plain and simple- he could be the remaining scum, but that seems unlikely considering he's likely to be targeted for his actions and if he was scum I think he would try to put forward a little more effort to seem more town.

And then there's you, Tawarochir. Although there was a touch of weak scum in your attacks day 1, you've made your peace with your methods and have since improved.
That leaves the ICs.

[Urist McCoder]

First I will address why I have not defended my self. The only way to prove that I am town is if we have a cop or if I get lynched. So I don't want to waste time trying to prove something I know to be true, when I my argument will likely be ineffectual.

You accuse loudwhispers of bussing.

You consider Urist McCoder to be likely scum? Good to know- likely bussing though. I think it relevant that at the end of the first day, I found hiddenleafguy to have a bit of a "town noob" feel growing, if I had more time in the day I probablywouldhave revoted Urist McCoder.

and then you post this.

Loud Whispers is no longer suspicious to me.

I don't understand how you can post both of these things in the same post.

[notquitethere]

Fallacy

No, I'm not trying to say I'm scum. I'm just curious why having a large number of votes D1 isn't a scumtell.

Sometimes it can indicate that someone is found suspicious by loads of people but not enough at the same time to be lynched yet. But it's rare that literally everyone votes for someone on D1.

NQT: odd. The fact is that the two ICs have in fact posted much less often than the other players.

This isn't actually true. 4mask and I have a higher overall post count than Loud Whispers and Hazard and my number of posts is only one less than Hiddenleafguy. There are people who haven't appeared yet today but I'm not too concerned about activity levels yet.

My conclusion is that... okay, at the moment my only conclusion is that Urist McCoder is scum. At least one other player besides myself is scum also. And unfortunately, it seems likely to me that one of the ICs is scum. Would you like to hear my reasoning?

Yes, let's hear this reasoning.


Loud Whispers
Did I miss your answer to this somewhere?

The stats aren't everything but they're a very good starting point. These aren't 'superstitions': I have trawled through dozens of games looking at common patterns: the person with the most posts is very very rarely scum. This makes sense as scum player most often play reactively.

Fallacy was voted for every other player except me. Do you think I'm his buddy? If not, then who was bussing him?

Hazard, who do you suspect right now?

[Tawa]

Everybody: Can each of you please make two lists; one for who you think is scum, from most likely to least likely, and who you think is playing the best, from most likely to least likely? Discounting Grak and HLG, of course.

[notquitethere]

Tawa, explain to me why that isn't just composing a "who would scum mislynch first" and a "who should scum nightkill first" list?

[Tawa]

If I tell you why I'm composing the list, the scum will be able to alter their lists to skew the results. I'll tell you why if you answer first.

[H4zardZ1]

Do you see that i am suddenly turned offline for a day or two? Replacement. Please please. It's not like i could keep up with all the RL issues.

[Teneb]

Do you see that i am suddenly turned offline for a day or two? Replacement. Please please. It's not like i could keep up with all the RL issues.

Contacting Shaporia.

[FallacyofUrist]

Fallacy

My conclusion is that... okay, at the moment my only conclusion is that Urist McCoder is scum. At least one other player besides myself is scum also. And unfortunately, it seems likely to me that one of the ICs is scum. Would you like to hear my reasoning?

Yes, let's hear this reasoning.

I already posted the reasoning. Just look a few posts back.
(man, this is hard to do on a 3DS.)

[Teneb]

Saphoria is unable to replace. If you are reading this and want to replace H4zardZ1, please PM me.

[Loud Whispers]

What is bussing? Also I won't hold it against you if you keep attacking everyone else to try and get suspicion off of you FOUrist - in fact I'd go so far as to say that finding someone even more suspicious than you is the only thing which will convince me that I should not vote for you.
Your last paragraph has been very convincing, in so far as to raising the possibility that you are a noob not working good theory into good practice. Nonetheless, I maintain my vote until more suspicious information is found. You seem sincere but you have also given me reason not to trust what you say at face value, and the rest of the evidence has not stopped existing.

[H4zardZ1]

I'd better Back in for now. I'd explain why this happened: I don't have access to my tablet and it's battery ran out.