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[Mephansteras]

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
birdy51: Cheeetar
flabort: spruce
origamiscienceguy: flabort
Peradon: Jack AT, Persus13, TheDarkStar
TheDarkStar: Peradon


  Long after the shadows grow long you continue to debate, and accuse. Some speak loud and long, others remain silent in contemplation.

  In the end the votes are tallied, and it seems Peradon must die this day. He looks at all of you and shakes his head. "I have done what I can to aid us, but if I cannot convince you all of my innocence then I suppose the curtains will be drawn for this humble Illusionist. He walks calmly out with the guards to the execution platform and kneels resignedly before the hangman's noose."

  "If you are not, as you say, a pawn of the forces of evil then I wish you well in the afterlife." The Baron's voice is stern but not unkind. He looks to the executioner. "Make it quick."

  A kick of the stump and Peradon's neck snaps with an audible crack. The Baron inspects the body, but gets up after a bit shaking his head. "No, there is no taint of evil on him. I fear we have chosen poorly this day."

  "Return to your homes, everyone. We must try again tomorrow, hopefully with better luck."



Night has fallen. Send in your Actions!

[Mephansteras]

Dawn arrives shrouded in fog. You awake, sleepy, but rouse yourself and head off to the Town Hall.

There, waiting for you, is the Baron and several of the Watch. When everyone has arrived he addresses the hall.

"Three more deaths last night. Two murders, birdy51 and Persus13, and one that seems to have been an animal attack; origamiscienceguy." He pauses to let the words sink in.

"After some investigation by the Watch, we have determined that birdy51 was, as he claimed, a loyal Priest of the town. His body was found, but like some of the others his head was not. Persus13 was a good an loyal Townsperson, and was slain in his bed by a thrust from a dagger as far as we can tell. origamiscienceguy..." he pauses for a moment. "It seems he was a Guard, but not as loyal as we would expect. We found this talisman to the Sleeping God in his house. It seems he is part of that dread Cult, and we will not mourn his passing. As for his death, he was found a little ways into the forest and seems to have been mauled by one or more animals."

"You know what you must do. Root out the rest of this evil, so that our town can be safe again."



Day 3 has started. It will go until ~5pm Pacific Wednesday


spruce no longer has time for this game, and has requested a replacement.

[origamiscienceguy]

I'm back everyone

WAIT! No! I'm not 

[birdy51]

It was inevitable.

[TheDarkStar]

So a Cult kill, a third-party kill (which one?), and another third-party kill (maybe a vig kill?).

Looking at the people left, we have 7. At least one is Cult and one is the third-party killer. There could be one or two more Cultists(but hopefully just one more) in addition to the Cult killer (is that how the Cult works?). There could also be another third-party. This means that we have somewhere between two and five town left. Should we mass-claim today or wait until tomorrow?

[flabort]

OSG's death suggests we have a werebear. Whether of the PGO, Vig, or SK variants, I don't know.
Birdy's death is like the cult kill we've seen, so he was killed by scum. FYI, no graves were disturbed in the night, probably having to do with the fact that kills go off before rez's. It also seems he was telling the truth about being a priest, and was correct about OSG's role, but not his alignment.
Persus's death is akin to the other previous night kill, which I think someone said it was most likely a town Vig.

We now have 7 players left and theoretically 3 killing roles from the three deaths last night. Everyone who claimed so far except me is dead now. There's at least one other cultist, as TDS said. I agree with his assessment that there are between 2 and 5 town members left, and think that 4 and 5 are most likely.
The remaining players are: Jack A T, Flabort, TheDarkStar, Roo, Spruce(replacing out), Cheetar, and Tiruin.

Everyone: Reads and claims, please.

My new reads for today: If there turns out to be a charismatic cultist, I'd put Jack A T down as being my suspect for converted. Otherwise he leans town.
Flabort Is me. I'm a town sexton, the graveyard is under my care. So far nothing has happened during the night to me.
Spruce Has some valid suspicions about some players, mainly me and Birdy, but does more speculation and records-keeping than scum-hunting. Still does a little. Out of all active players, the most town-ish besides me.
Cheeetar First things first he votes Birdy, who turned out to be town. He justifies it with Birdy's lack of votes on suspects. Does hold up his stated preference of going after people one at a time by focusing first on Birdy, then on Persus. He then asks about... millers? Probably asking if there's a safe fake-claim if someone inspected him as scum. Really doesn't accomplish much. Lean scum.
Jack A T Correctly predicts cult. Was part of the Peradon lynch, based on Peradon's faulty logic. I can't find much evidence of him being outright scummy, but his day 2 play does feel lacking compared to his day 1 play in terms of scum-hunting.
TheDarkStar Also voted for Peradon for his faulty explanation and logic. Only his entire day was spend entirely on Peradon, and very loosely. Lean tunnely scum.
Tiruin Still nothing. At this stage of the game I Request that she be poked or replaced.
Roo Zip. Nothing. Nada. Please Poke or replace.
(Partial FoS's on Tir and Roo because I have no way of knowing whether I should suspect them.)

Cult Kill We know that the beheading kill is the cult kill, or at least can suspect it. Toonyman and Birdy were both targeted by the scum team; what would a motivation analysis turn up?
Mystery Killer 1 Deus Asmoth and Persus13 is the common link here. If this player is a vig like is to be believed, then the killer is probably someone who suspected both these players. 
Mystery Killer 2 OSG, the victim of this kill, was scum. While the flavor indicates to me that it's a werebear who did the killing, we don't know if they're town and got targeted by OSG or if they're an SK and attacked OSG.

flabort: What do you think of your own math? Is it characteristic of your play in other games?

I know my math is flawed. I had an image of a 3D graph in my head, but I couldn't draw it, so I tried to describe it with numbers; Z, X, and Y, which would produce a 3D graph. But I couldn't get the equation just right either, so I ballparked it. It's still reflective on how I feel, and still good enough.
As far as it being characteristic, yes. I have played relying heavily on numbers as evidence before. Here is an example of me using numbers to play the game from the previous Supernatural mafia.

[Cheeetar]

So do we think this cult is a converting cult or a flavour cult? I'm thinking converting cult because of the second post Meph made which stated:

Scum and 3rd party role information is not going to be posted in the thread.

Potential Town Roles

• Guard - the Guard can lock someone in their house and stand guard through the night. This keeps them in, and others out. At least as long as the guard is around.

Am I being too literal?

Flabort, would you please state your case against me so I can make some sort of progress towards telling you why you're wrong?

[flabort]

Being of little substance, trying to get townies lynched, and looking for a safe fake-claim.

[Cheeetar]

Weak, lame, confusing. I don't buy your arguments one bit.

Mephansteras: Is it possible for a scum to start with one of the potential town roles and their alignment as scum?

[flabort]

Mephansteras: Is it possible for a scum to start with one of the potential town roles and their alignment as scum?

How the... what the heck is this question?! The answer will clearly be yes, just look at OSG's flip. This just seems to me to be exactly like your question about a Miller. And no, there haven't been Millers in Supernatural to my knowledge, and no, I don't think you could be a miller AND have another power. Stop looking for fake-claims.

[Mephansteras]

Mephansteras: Is it possible for a scum to start with one of the potential town roles and their alignment as scum?

Yes, most town roles can also be scum.

[Cheeetar]

Alright. I'm claiming Werebear that acts like a paranoid war vet from Paranormal (kills anyone who targets me with a night action). I tried to look as much like an investigative role as possible yesterday-

Spoiler: Look at me scum, a juicy target (click to show/hide)

Hi guys, I'm Cheesecake! I might need an extension, actually, both to plan my vote and any subsequent action I'll be taking. It is ~2:30 am for me, so I can't guarantee I'll be able to spend much of the time until the (current) deadline on anything but sleeping.

Specifically, 'any subsequent action I'll be taking', which is screaming 'I have a night action guys'

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

General question: Have there been millers in this game before?

I also knew that if I was trying to make people think I was an investigative role, I'd have to have investigated somebody the night before- my plan was to immediately target somebody (as if I had investigated them as scum) and then later confess doubt and wonder a lot about millers- I didn't count on the day to ending quite so quickly, though.

A person with a spear came near me house last night. I'm not sure if they were there to kill me or guard me, but I find it hard to believe that the scum would have two nightkills. I find it very odd that a member of the scum tried to guard me.

[Cheeetar]

No, wait, guard is more like a jailer than a doctor. In that case, Origamiscienceguy was trying to keep me locked up and stop me 'investigating' people. Flabort is likely his scummate given the immediate beeline after day start. Time to go over what Flabort's been posting.

[Cheeetar]

Flabort voted for OSG Day 1 (only person to do so), OSG voted for... nobody. Day 2, Flabort voted for OSG again, and OSG voted for nobody. Of note is that Flabort has been constantly claiming to see OSG as scummy, but never really pushed a solid case against him. In light of OSG's reveal as scum, it seems more like distancing than anything else.

Birdy51 did this amazing thing that I can't really match at the moment. The soft hunting is most pertinent. Flabort doesn't seem to have found me suspicious Day 2 while I was doing all those scummy things, but is now suspicious Day 3 (now that OSG, the person he was very lazily and softly tunneling is dead).

Uh-huh. Thank you for your reads. They were insightful. Now let's get this party on the road here, shall we?  I've got a third claim to make this day.

Flabort. You are scum. Here is why.

Spoiler: Yeah, Birdy said it better than I can at the moment (click to show/hide)

---


Soft-Hunting

By this, I mean that you have not shown initiative in creating cases, preferring to stay on the sidelines of the conflict as opposed to the thick of it. That way, if something goes wrong, you still have your options to escape implication. Anyways. Onto the meat and potatoes.

flabort: How do we know there isn't?

I don't. At this stage of the game it's too hasty to decide what kind of scum team(s?) we're facing off against. All I know is that anyone who DOES know at this stage is part of that team.

I don't want to needlessly vote Cheesecake when there's already a lot of pressure on him for one single slip, when there's a slim possibility that he could be telling the truth at this stage, especially given that I pointed out the thing that caused everyone to wagon on him; I feel like I already cast a dark shadow of doom onto him, and my vote is therefor already on him; but it's not, so I can save it to vote someone else.

If you really thought Cheesecake was scum, why didn't you vote for him when you had the chance? You were more than willing to flaunt the fact that you were the first to 'expose' him, but you were not willing to actually vote for him when the time came along.

Peradon: A short RVS, then says he's going to question someone until he finds a flaw. Procedes to not ask questions, just answer. Until he hops on the wagons; he's still not following his declared strategy. Soft claims having an active action, as opposed to passive, and not being bothered at night. Scum lean.

I'll agree with you that he hasn't stuck to doing what he said he was going to do. His word is Investigation, which is ironic considering his lack of question players. However, his 'bandwagon' vote also broke a tie between myself and Teneb. I'm fairly certain at that point he simply wanted to prevent a no-lynch and saw myself as less scummy than him.

Secondly, this is the first time you've mentioned his name as a suspect of yours, which leaves me inclined to think that you're still looking for an easy lynch. Since the other players have been relatively productive and/or accounted for, you decided to place your suspicions on the 'obvious' target in order appear productive.

That leaves a couple people with zero-to-no activity, EPenguin and OSG coming readily to mind.
In fact, Oragami has been even worse than spruce when it comes to being serious and answering questions straight. His two highest content posts are here and here: "I'm not going to base any arguments of of flavor text" and "My posts will be sparse", though up to that point they already were very sparse. There are a large number of questions directed at OSG which he hasn't answered, at least one of which are mine, and out of six posts four of them were completely shitposts.

Oragami Science Guy: Non-serious begining to the game: "Let's get this party started", "Magma", "The point of the humor was really just for humor". Drops to low activity for a while. Activity really starts on day 2, where he softclaims, and then Birdy claims for him. He then asks some questions about the set-up. Mild scum lean, maaaaybe neutral.

Hehe. I think you know that your case against him is gone. Completely. Utterly. Gone. Now you're just trying to save face, since you had assumed that OSG would have made an easy lynch. But holding on to suspicions of someone who has already been marked as Town isn't sensible, especially after I had "done out" OSG. On the errant chance of an OSG wagon, you still want to be ready to off him. Which doesn't make a lick of sense to any sensibly minded Townie.

---

But this last one is my favorite. Because it involves me, and I love talking about me.

Buddying:

Self-Explanatory. The first two quoted examples also fall into the realm of Soft-Hunting, but that is not the expressed focus of this section. Read on.

I wouldn't say he got an entirely free pass... though he has been lucky so far and not attracting huge amounts of attention, either.

Does this indicate you were at some point suspicious of birdy?

I'm always mildly suspicious of people who open with only one question or less. It usually amounts to nothing, but it's a pet peeve of mine.
But that was unrelated to my comment that you quoted. In that context, I had meant that everyone gets questioned in their own time, and Birdy was lucky that his turn to be grilled hadn't come yet.

Birdy51: I like the calm detached Birdy. He gets to the point, is fairly active (evidenced by having the most posts in the game), and goes back to review and reread the game every so often. Definitely one of the clearer-headed players. His reads are consise and clear, making sense. Does out OSG, and reveals his own role; this is one suspicious thing out of a lot of positive posts. Mildly town.

This illustrates a most wonderful growth of thought that I feel is very, very important. Day 1, there are exceptionally subtle undertones that you wanted me to be grilled into oblivion. Day 1 Birdy is 'lucky' that he's not the one in the spotlight. You're suspicious of me, but unwilling to outright target me as yet. Fine.

Come Day 2 however, that suspicion is completely gone. Suddenly, my activity Day 1 seems to make sense, with my role claim and subsequent release of OSG's role being  'one suspicious thing out of a lot of positive posts".  Now I'm, 'Mildly Town'. It's hilariously false, since a lot my early posts are soft, meaningless questions and I held my vote on Epenguin for what was admittedly too long. Hah! You're buttering this old horse up and whispering sweet nothings into my ear  as you ship me off to the glue factory.

You know my claim is true, and as such, you know that a sudden case against me would be suspicious. So you want to do the exact opposite of conveying suspicion. Buddying.

---

Anyways, I think this is enough for now. I look forward to your responses.

[Cheeetar]

I hate to quad post, but I also have to ask: Did anybody alive get jailed Night 1? Scum already know who they targeted, so revealing that you got jailed doesn't do anything but give more information to town.