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[LordBucket]

So, Oculus Rift preorders opened up a few hours ago. Price is $600. About $150 more than investor speculation and and $124 more than fan speculation.

Personally I was predicting $450 with a $50 rebate. A little more than developer kits, and similar to a new gaming console price.Seems to me there's no point in pre-ordering now. Current delivery dates are pushed back to May, and HTC is predicting Vive shipments will start in April. No word yet on Vive pricing, but it still ships with hand controllers, unlike the oculus touch controllers which aren't expected for a while and aren't included in the $600 purchase price.

Unfortunately I suspect that Playstation 4 VR might be the VR winner for 2016.

[Grimlocke]

The first post speculating that 2015 might have been the year that VR goes 'mainstream' seems especially far from the truth with that preposterous pricing. The device here costs €741 a fair mid-range gaming PC budget.

Does not come with motion controllers either, only with the 'privilege' to be the first in line to buy them for a still unspecified price.

There is going to be nothing even close to mainstream adoption of this bit of tech and if this carries on until the novelty of it wears off (and the stories of nausea and other gripes start flowing in) then there is going to be very little impetus for game developers to support what might only be a rich kid's gimmick.

And that would be a shame. I would like this bit of tech to have a fair chance at proving if its really worthwhile, but at this kind of price it better be really good and better get a lot cheaper fast.

[LordBucket]

The first post speculating that 2015 might have been the year that VR goes 'mainstream' seems especially far from the truth with that preposterous pricing.

The $600 price tag for rift comes as a big surprise. At the time of the OP, developer's kits were selling for $350, and as recently as September they were still saying the commercial version would be in that ballpark.

Does not come with motion controllers either, only with the 'privilege' to be the first in line to buy them for a still unspecified price.

That's concerning, yes. Having tried neither, oculus touch looks like a better input solution to me than the vive controllers. But the vive controllers are included with the vive. If touch isn't available until summer, and if it turns out to cost an extra $300, people who buy rift may end up waiting longer to pay more. Personally I'm not enthusiastic about playing in VR with an xbox controller. Also, with the recent vive camera announcements, while I haven't seen them specifically say so, the vive might be capable of hand tracking from day 1 without a third party solution like leap motion. Vive looks in many ways to simply be a better product. A lot is going to ride on HTC's price announcement.

if this carries on until the novelty of it wears off (and the stories of nausea and other gripes start flowing in) then there is going to be very little impetus for game developers to support what might only be a rich kid's gimmick.

As of this post, even at $600, oculus rift is back ordered through June.  According to people on reddit it was revealed at Oculus Connect 2 that their manufacturing capacity was 72,000 units/month. Shipping starts in march. Even assuming no advance production that's probably on the order of 200,000 units ordered so far. And we don't even know what will happen with vive and morpheus yet. We're not talking gaming console quantities here, but rift/vive/morpheus combined could plausibly sell single digit millions of units this year.

Plus, there are 36 million PS4s in the wild. No price or release date yet, but if Sony prices it reasonably I wouldn't be completely surprised if more playstation VR units sell in 2016 than rift plus vive combined.

[mainiac]

The 600 dollar price indicates to me that these guys are REAAAAAAAAAAALLY incompetent at running a manufacturing business.  I can go on Alibaba and find lcd screens of that resolution for under fifty bucks a piece easily (so 100 for two).  Accelerameter and magnetometer are incidental, like under a dollar for anything remotely resembling bulk purchases.  Gyroscopes are a little more expensive but doable for ten bucks.  The motherboard and onboard processing costing even 30 bucks is pushing it given that the computer is handling everything hard.  The plastics and fabrication could easily be done for like 25 dollars a unit in the US (and probably like 3 bucks in China).  Shipping and handling?  Heck lets add another 20 bucks a unit even though economies of scale should mean less then half that.  I dont know anything about audio systems so lets say 50 bucks for that just to be on the safe side.  Add another 20 bucks for a bluetooth connection.  That adds up to... $256 a unit with me rounding every single price up.

I expect VR will take off, I just dont expect these guys to be big players.  They got utterly fleeced by whoever they are working with and appear to be completely out of their league.

Edit: not to say that what they have done on the software and firmware side isn't impressive.  Just that if that's what their hardware costs look like, they shouldn't be in this business.

[Putnam]

144 hz, too, remember.

Also, John Carmack works for Oculus, I don't think "getting fleeced" is too reasonable, since he worked for Nvidia.

[LordBucket]

The 600 dollar price indicates to me that these guys are REAAAAAAAAAAALLY incompetent at running a manufacturing business.  I can go on Alibaba and find lcd screens of that resolution for under fifty bucks a piece easily (so 100 for two).  Accelerameter and magnetometer are incidental, like under a dollar for anything remotely resembling bulk purchases.  Gyroscopes are a little more expensive but doable for ten bucks.  The motherboard and onboard processing costing even 30 bucks is pushing it given that the computer is handling everything hard.  The plastics and fabrication could easily be done for like 25 dollars a unit in the US (and probably like 3 bucks in China).  Shipping and handling?  Heck lets add another 20 bucks a unit even though economies of scale should mean less then half that.  I dont know anything about audio systems so lets say 50 bucks for that just to be on the safe side.  Add another 20 bucks for a bluetooth connection.  That adds up to... $256 a unit with me rounding every single price up.

I expect VR will take off, I just dont expect these guys to be big players.  They got utterly fleeced by whoever they are working with and appear to be completely out of their league.

Edit: not to say that what they have done on the software and firmware side isn't impressive.  Just that if that's what their hardware costs look like, they shouldn't be in this business.

They're not using off the shelf parts. Even their competitor is guessing that they spent $100 for the display. Also, rumor is that they're being manufactured in silicon valley which makes manufacturing more expensive.

[Shazbot]

As a TrackIR user and flight simmer, I can say it was $200 well-spent just for glitchy, light-sensitive head tracking. The simulator market is quite used to putting down $400 - 500 for a HOTAS controller or racing wheel, and they'll be picking up Rift for the full in-cockpit experience. I mean, five hundred bucks for a stick with buttons. Then I recall my father telling me the 22 inch CRT television we just left at the dump was $800 new, in 1991 dollars. So like most things, I'll be waiting a year or two yet to get Rift.

[mainiac]

They're not using off the shelf parts.

Of course not.  They should be able to get a better price then what I found from typing a few specs into Alibaba.  The screen itself costing $100 seems pretty reasonable.  If there is anywhere you want to splurg that is the place.  But that implies that they spent $500 on everything that's not the screen.  Even if you are going for high end suppliers you are still talking like $10 for an accelerometer instead of 50 cents.  The everything else shouldn't add up to 500.

Also, John Carmack works for Oculus, I don't think "getting fleeced" is too reasonable, since he worked for Nvidia.

For the sake of argument, lets call him the best programmer in the world when it comes to designing firmware and graphical engines.  Why does that have the slightest bit of relevance to business acumen?

[LordBucket]

They're not using off the shelf parts.

Of course not.  They should be able to get a better price then what I found from typing a few specs into Alibaba.

Why would they be able to get a better price on a custom part that needs to be custom designed and custom built than you can get for a similar part that isn't as good but already exists? That's like saying that because somebody sells a 4 door sedan with a 30 gallon gas tank, you should therefore be able to ask them to build you a 4-door sedan with a 34 gallon gas tank and pay less for it than the one you can walk onto a lot and buy.

[mainiac]

Because suppliers demand one price from the general public but will accept a lower price if you have a large guaranteed order.  Especially if you are offering them the chance to get in on a whole new massive market.  Have you heard of economies of scale or learning curves?

I find your metaphor inapplicable because we aren't talking about buying completed product (cars), we are talking about buying parts.  It's cheaper to get a part for a supply line in bulk quantities then it would be for a mechanic to order one online.

[Egan_BW]

Hmm, I should just go ahead and PTW this. Nothing to see here.

[LordBucket]

Have you heard of economies of scale or learning curves?

Yes, and both those factor are likely working against them, not for them. These are new, custom parts. There's obviously no learning curve advantage building something new compared to standard parts that have been in production for years. I don't understand why you're even suggesting this. As for economy of scale, that could potentially go either way...but U rather suspect that with many of the components they need, a mere couple hundred thousand units is probably not a particularly meaningful quantity.

Just to give one example, you specifically mentioned $10 for a high end accelerometer. Let me quote you:

They should be able to get a better price then what I found from typing a few specs into Alibaba.

 Even if you are going for high end suppliers you are still talking like $10 for an accelerometer instead of 50 cents.

Ok, well let me type that into alibaba. First page, I see some $600 accelerometers. I dont' know where you're getting this "$10 for a high end one" idea. Yes, there are some for pennies, but not knowing the requirements for their parts, it doesn't make sense to arbitrarily assume that the bottom-most cheapest ones are a suitable basis for comparison. I do note in particular that the second one on the list, which sells for as little as $11 if you buy it in quantity, is for android phones...and we know that phone accelerometers aren't good enough. That's a large part of the reason that Gear VR even exists. The standard tracking on a phone isn't very good, and Gear has an accelerometer in it. I've demod both Gear VR, that you can stick a Samsung galaxy 5 into, as well as google cardboard with my own personal galaxy 5, and I can assure you that tracking on gear is much better.

I have no idea what oculus is paying for specific components and neither do you. But plugging generic part types into an alibaba search to look at the cheapest stuff you can find and concluding that high sensitivity custom parts should be cheaper is not reasonable.

I find your metaphor inapplicable because we aren't talking about buying completed product (cars), we are talking about buying parts.  It's cheaper to get a part for a supply line in bulk quantities then it would be for a mechanic to order one online.

Ok. Well, clearly whatever it was you thought would be the case is not the case. So, *shrug*

[Neonivek]

What is with people and wanting Metaphors to be 100% exactly on?

Metaphors are ways to help people understand a point through abstract language. They aren't scientific comparisons

[mainiac]

Yes, and both those factor are likely working against them, not for them. These are new, custom parts.

I was giving the prices that are easily available for a simple public listing search if you have no economy of scale advantage.  If I wanted to throw a million dollars at VR sets, I could get those kind of prices in a week without negotiating.  Even if they have a small economy of scale, it's more then zero.  And if they cant use the scent of being the first manufacturer to have a contract to create economy of scale they are shit at the business.

Also, "new, custom parts" is completely meaningless in this context seeing as it's not the 1970s.  I know manufacturing firms so small and stalid that they dont have a webpage and they make "new, custom parts".  Here is a "new, custom part" https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1598272670/chip-the-worlds-first-9-computer

Ok, well let me type that into alibaba. First page, I see some $600 accelerometers.

Yeah, ones for scientific measurement.  Do you want your headset to double as a seismograph?

What is with people and wanting Metaphors to be 100% exactly on?

Metaphors are ways to help people understand a point through abstract language. They aren't scientific comparisons

Because metaphors are an excellent way to mislead yourself.

[Putnam]

Wait, aren't the rifts basically a small pair of some of the best gaming monitors available? It's a pair of 1080x1200 monitors at 144 hz each.