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Author Topic: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!  (Read 218633 times)

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1290 on: February 15, 2015, 08:53:05 am »

Quote from: Cheeetar
his enchanter claim came late considering how visible its effects are

I haven't really been able to be active all that much recently, but come on Cheeetar, this statement stinks to high heaven. There has been literally no point in this game where the enchanter's effect has been visible. Making small mistakes is one thing, but that statement is a flat-out lie. The other two points are fair enough, though I'll need to read back to see if Toaster really hasn't contributed anything like you're saying.

The day isn't ending in 11 hours, right? God I hope that isn't the case.

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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1291 on: February 15, 2015, 09:51:57 am »

I was under the impression that today was ending on Monday, though I may be wrong. On the bright side, I have internet again and am only slightly hung over, so I'll be trying to get up to date properly today.
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zombie urist

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1292 on: February 15, 2015, 01:33:04 pm »

Scripten and Tiruin are having a pretty sizeable argument, so I doubt they're both scum. Of the two I'm actually not sure who I suspect more...

And what will this evidence be...?
Someone will die.
ZU, you've mentioned before that you think I'm likely scum. Why do you believe I'm scum?
Well this day you haven't done much analysis of your own, just commenting on stuff other people said, and the timing of your voting/unvoting Jim is too close to mine. Then the previous day you parked your vote on Pisskop. Also you didn't help yourself by saying this.
Quote from: Cheeetar
his enchanter claim came late considering how visible its effects are
I haven't really been able to be active all that much recently, but come on Cheeetar, this statement stinks to high heaven. There has been literally no point in this game where the enchanter's effect has been visible. Making small mistakes is one thing, but that statement is a flat-out lie.
Speaking of which someone else who hasn't done much analysis is Shakerag. His contributions today is mainly drawing a picture of the nights actions and listing relationships between people.

Toaster hasn't really been here all day but its probably because he's busy IRL. Toaster and Tiruin suspected Scripten yesterday but Toaster's voting Tiruin today.

I think we should lynch Shakerag today. Every scumteam I can come up with has him as scum.
Then we can follow Jim's plan, except I'll block Cheeetar.

Originally I thought about lynching Scripten, which lead to the following logic:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1293 on: February 15, 2015, 02:01:24 pm »

ZU, who do you think the likely scum teams are, then? If Scripten flipped town, why would that make him any more likely to be correct in his suspicions?
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Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1294 on: February 15, 2015, 02:32:52 pm »

Zombie Urist:

Toaster hasn't really been here all day but its probably because he's busy IRL. Toaster and Tiruin suspected Scripten yesterday but Toaster's voting Tiruin today.

What do you think of what Toaster did yesterday in comparison to today's change in opinion? Does it feel like a natural progression of his Tiruin read?

I think we should lynch Shakerag today. Every scumteam I can come up with has him as scum.

Can you list/explain each of these potential scumteams clearly for us? I'd like to see your logic.

If Scripten is town, then the dopps won't target him anyways.

Unless you block me in the night, which would be a pretty viable reason to disagree with Jim's plan, if I'm not mistaken.

If he's town, Shakerag and Tiruin are almost definitely scum, with the third being probably Cheeetar or Toaster who are lying about their role.

Why is this so? Please list the logic behind each of these associative reads. If I'm town, why would Shakerag, Cheeetar, or Toaster be more likely to be scum? Does my eventual townflip cement a scumread in Tiruin enough for you?

After all, I'm a war vet. I don't have any powers other than my vanilla mafia skills. If you think my logic as essentially vanilla town is this solid, why would you want me to flip and be dead and unable to continue scumhunting? If you think my logic is scum-sided, then why would my townflip verify my reads any more than another basically vanilla townie that you otherwise disagree with?

If Scripten is scum, we lynched scum.
Then its probably Shakerag and probably Cheeetar or Toaster.

So... my flip basically does nothing but show whether Tiruin is scum or not? You don't have any differences in your associative reads here.

This would free up both guards to do some guarding, in which they should PM each other to coordinate their actions so they don't both guard the same person.

Also frees you up to block me in the night so that the scum can stab me, like I said above. Not particularly thrilled about that, as I'm sure you can imagine.
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1295 on: February 15, 2015, 04:27:45 pm »

Quote from: Scripten
Also frees you up to block me in the night so that the scum can stab me, like I said above. Not particularly thrilled about that, as I'm sure you can imagine.

To be fair, Scripten, why would the scum target you in the first place? Wouldn't the roleblocker (ZU), or the deadchatter (me), or the guy tracking three people (Shakerag), or the Guardian (Deus) be far better targets? At this point you're essentially just a vanilla townie since your role is known to be war vet.

Your death isn't really a concern, is what I'm saying. Regardless of what alignment you are, you'll probably be surviving until the very end of this game.

By the way, guys still talking about this:

MASTACHEESE KILLED TOONY. (Not someone else.) Toony definitely shot at Mastacheese (1 of 3), and Mastacheese definitely killed him. I said this earlier, but it seems like I have to say it again. Stop running with the misconception that Cheese might have been protecting something, he wasn't.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1296 on: February 15, 2015, 04:31:26 pm »

On a side note that I forgot to mention, Scripten: Even if ZU blocks you so his scumbuddies can kill you for some reason, you can just... You know, tell me that you were blocked (deadchat,) and then we lynch ZU.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
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Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1297 on: February 15, 2015, 04:46:10 pm »

And what will this evidence be...?
Someone will die.

Which would be evidence that Jim is the scum because...?
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Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1298 on: February 15, 2015, 04:59:07 pm »

ZU, you've mentioned before that you think I'm likely scum. Why do you believe I'm scum?
Well this day you haven't done much analysis of your own, just commenting on stuff other people said, and the timing of your voting/unvoting Jim is too close to mine. Then the previous day you parked your vote on Pisskop. Also you didn't help yourself by saying this.

Lame. These are all super weak, except for the 'parking your vote' thing which would be pretty condemning if it wasn't a complete lie. You didn't notice me pushing for his vote n stuff? It wasn't a useless vote- I kept it there, and I kept my attention there too.

Quote from: Cheeetar
his enchanter claim came late considering how visible its effects are
I haven't really been able to be active all that much recently, but come on Cheeetar, this statement stinks to high heaven. There has been literally no point in this game where the enchanter's effect has been visible. Making small mistakes is one thing, but that statement is a flat-out lie.

In the one situation that Enchanter makes a difference in vote count, everyone now knows there's an enchanter. In that sense, its effects are pretty visible, yeah? Do note: I was talking about enchanter as a role.
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

zombie urist

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1299 on: February 15, 2015, 06:12:29 pm »

ZU, who do you think the likely scum teams are, then? If Scripten flipped town, why would that make him any more likely to be correct in his suspicions?
See below. It wouldn't and I don't think I said so otherwise.

Lame. These are all super weak, except for the 'parking your vote' thing which would be pretty condemning if it wasn't a complete lie. You didn't notice me pushing for his vote n stuff? It wasn't a useless vote- I kept it there, and I kept my attention there too.
I didn't notice you doing anything else important D2.

In the one situation that Enchanter makes a difference in vote count, everyone now knows there's an enchanter. In that sense, its effects are pretty visible, yeah? Do note: I was talking about enchanter as a role.
That's not very visible at all because it happens so rarely. Also many other roles are more visible such as psychic warden, vig, etc that all have concrete results that can be proven/disproven.

And what will this evidence be...?
Someone will die.
Which would be evidence that Jim is the scum because...?
In the given scenario Jim would be the one doing the killing.
 
Toaster hasn't really been here all day but its probably because he's busy IRL. Toaster and Tiruin suspected Scripten yesterday but Toaster's voting Tiruin today.
What do you think of what Toaster did yesterday in comparison to today's change in opinion? Does it feel like a natural progression of his Tiruin read?
Maybe I don't know. I think his reasoning on voting Tiruin is mostly based on logic.

If Scripten is town, then the dopps won't target him anyways.
Unless you block me in the night, which would be a pretty viable reason to disagree with Jim's plan, if I'm not mistaken.
If you are town and war vet, there is literally no reason to kill you. Your role doesn't provide the town with any information at night.

Why is this so? Please list the logic behind each of these associative reads. If I'm town, why would Shakerag, Cheeetar, or Toaster be more likely to be scum? Does my eventual townflip cement a scumread in Tiruin enough for you?
People who probably aren't scum:
UXLZ - seems to be accurately transcribing NQT's things from deadchat. If he were scum he could simply just say NQT hasn't posted anything and no one would know any better.
Jim - don't think he would mention the mastahcheese protecting dopp killer if he was scum, even if the theory is totally wrong.
Persus - confided in UXLZ and Deus, both of which I think are town, so I don't think scum would do something like that. Also he claimed heroic guard which is weaker than observant guard, so scum could have assigned him to do the kill instead of mastahcheese. I suppose he could actually be a vengeful guard, but I don't think so. He also said in a PM his role was 'useless' which I can see why he would say that.
Deus - probably town for protecting Pisskop.

This leaves Shakerag, Tiruin, Scripten, Cheeetar, Toaster
Cheeetar and Toaster can't both be scum and enchanters otherwise they would already control the majority vote. Unless one of them is lying about being an enchanter, which I don't think is likely.
Tiruin and Scripten probably aren't on the same team since they've been going at it today.

Thus the only possible teams are
Shakerag, Tiruin/Scripten, Cheeetar/Toaster.

After all, I'm a war vet. I don't have any powers other than my vanilla mafia skills. If you think my logic as essentially vanilla town is this solid, why would you want me to flip and be dead and unable to continue scumhunting? If you think my logic is scum-sided, then why would my townflip verify my reads any more than another basically vanilla townie that you otherwise disagree with?
I don't know what you're saying here.

If Scripten is scum, we lynched scum.
Then its probably Shakerag and probably Cheeetar or Toaster.
So... my flip basically does nothing but show whether Tiruin is scum or not? You don't have any differences in your associative reads here.
Yeah I guess.

This would free up both guards to do some guarding, in which they should PM each other to coordinate their actions so they don't both guard the same person.
Also frees you up to block me in the night so that the scum can stab me, like I said above. Not particularly thrilled about that, as I'm sure you can imagine.
The scum team has no incentive to kill you over someone like Jim or me.
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zombie urist

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1300 on: February 15, 2015, 06:19:10 pm »

Thinking some more, the most likely scumteam IMO is Shakerag/Tiruin/Cheeetar.

The biggest reason I think its Tiruin over Scripten is because Scripten said he was blocked Day 2. If he were scum he'd probably say so in scumchat and not the forum thread. Also Shakerag if he actually believed Tiruin was scum he would totally be willing to tie the vote as evidenced D1, so I'm believing NQT's idea more that Shakerag voted Pisskop to save Tiruin.
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Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1301 on: February 15, 2015, 06:26:21 pm »

UXLZ:

To be fair, Scripten, why would the scum target you in the first place? Wouldn't the roleblocker (ZU), or the deadchatter (me), or the guy tracking three people (Shakerag), or the Guardian (Deus) be far better targets? At this point you're essentially just a vanilla townie since your role is known to be war vet.

Nah, you're right. I hadn't really thought about being night killed until I realized that ZU could shut me down at night and let the scum stab me. I've had him in the third-place scum slot for a while, so I'm naturally paranoid about him.

On a side note that I forgot to mention, Scripten: Even if ZU blocks you so his scumbuddies can kill you for some reason, you can just... You know, tell me that you were blocked (deadchat,) and then we lynch ZU.


Not that I think you are scum, but I'm not sure if relying on the medium is foolproof. You could be roleblocked. Beyond that, there's the possibility of third-party or scum vig kills. But I get where you're coming from. Likely, I will probably survive until later in the game, but I was more interested in ZU's logic than anything. Even if he couldn't do something doesn't mean he might not try, if he is scum.
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Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1302 on: February 15, 2015, 06:36:26 pm »

ZU:

Maybe I don't know. I think his reasoning on voting Tiruin is mostly based on logic.

Eh. Decent answer, though it felt weird to me.

If you are town and war vet, there is literally no reason to kill you. Your role doesn't provide the town with any information at night.

It would also be likely that the scum doing the killing wouldn't be caught.

People who probably aren't scum:
UXLZ - seems to be accurately transcribing NQT's things from deadchat. If he were scum he could simply just say NQT hasn't posted anything and no one would know any better.
Jim - don't think he would mention the mastahcheese protecting dopp killer if he was scum, even if the theory is totally wrong.
Persus - confided in UXLZ and Deus, both of which I think are town, so I don't think scum would do something like that. Also he claimed heroic guard which is weaker than observant guard, so scum could have assigned him to do the kill instead of mastahcheese. I suppose he could actually be a vengeful guard, but I don't think so. He also said in a PM his role was 'useless' which I can see why he would say that.
Deus - probably town for protecting Pisskop.

This leaves Shakerag, Tiruin, Scripten, Cheeetar, Toaster
Cheeetar and Toaster can't both be scum and enchanters otherwise they would already control the majority vote. Unless one of them is lying about being an enchanter, which I don't think is likely.
Tiruin and Scripten probably aren't on the same team since they've been going at it today.

Thus the only possible teams are
Shakerag, Tiruin/Scripten, Cheeetar/Toaster.

Hm. Okay. That's fair enough. I'm not sure if I'd be quite so happy to write Persus13 in as a town read just yet, though. Part of good scumplay is ingratiating yourself with the town, which the PM game allows for.

I don't know what you're saying here.

You're saying that one of Tiruin or myself are scum. Do you then trust my judgement that she is scum such that, when I flip town, she will be scum in your eyes?
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1303 on: February 15, 2015, 06:52:10 pm »

Quote from: Cheeetar
In the one situation that Enchanter makes a difference in vote count, everyone now knows there's an enchanter. In that sense, its effects are pretty visible, yeah? Do note: I was talking about enchanter as a role.

But also pretty non-visible in the sense that it's possible for an enchanter to go through a game having literally no effect via their role ability whatsoever. By that logic, would you say that the first thing an enchanter should do is claim at the start of D1?

The thing is though, I'm talking about in the context of this game rather than the overarching Paranormal 'metagame'. (This is my first Paranormal, remember) and in this particular game, there's no place where an enchanter could have really made a difference. All of the lynches thus far have been a fairly overwhelming majority by the actual end of the day (precisely to avoid enchanter and vote-shifting shenanigans, I guess.) I just can't see the logic behind you saying that he's scummy because he 'claimed too late.' (That particular reason. The other reasons are perfectly valid ones, though I still have to check if they're actually right.)

PPE: Letting a post sit for 100 minutes while I have class isn't the best idea. >_>

Quote from: Scripten
You could be roleblocked.

Actually, I couldn't. Mediums can't be blocked.

Quote from: ZU
Cheeetar and Toaster can't both be scum and enchanters otherwise they would already control the majority vote. Unless one of them is lying about being an enchanter, which I don't think is likely.

I thought so as well, but I did the math wrong. we have 10 players alive at the moment. Assuming both Cheeetar and Toaster are scum enchanters, that would leave the votes at 5 SCUM, 7 TOWN and we're in MyLo. For some reason I was forgetting to count that the Enchanter having an extra vote doesn't mean that another player loses their vote.

By the way, NQT said he'll be trying to do some stuff when he gets the time. Hopefully that will be before the end of the day.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1304 on: February 15, 2015, 06:56:33 pm »

And what will this evidence be...?
Someone will die.
Which would be evidence that Jim is the scum because...?
In the given scenario Jim would be the one doing the killing.

Which we know because???

Jeeeeeze. This is so utterly frustrating. There are plenty of other people who could perform the kill- if somebody dies tonight, no, we don't immediately know if it was Jim or not, unless Tiruin telepaths him, which is what you were objecting to.

Quote from: Cheeetar
In the one situation that Enchanter makes a difference in vote count, everyone now knows there's an enchanter. In that sense, its effects are pretty visible, yeah? Do note: I was talking about enchanter as a role.

But also pretty non-visible in the sense that it's possible for an enchanter to go through a game having literally no effect via their role ability whatsoever. By that logic, would you say that the first thing an enchanter should do is claim at the start of D1?

I believe he should claim if it's possible his double vote might otherwise cause a tie. If he left his vote on, say, Flabort and there was a tie due to this (not enough people switched from Flabort to TDS), he wouldn't've been blameless in that situation because nobody but him would've known of his doublevote. I'm not really saying the late claim is scummy, but I'm not sure it's as credible as my own which leaves open the possibility he's a third party or a dopp with a night action.
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.
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