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[Uzu Bash]

If Trump managed to get 51% of the delegates, then brokering the nomination away from him would cause a lasting schism in the party; a great jagged-edge and fractious fracture.  If he got less, then they don't have a conclusive winner for their own party's nomination and they'd want to broker it away from Trump just to ensure his style of playing the game is not rewarded. But Cruz with the 2nd share of the vote would have all the bargaining power against the remaining nominees, and he's not any better liked by moderate and establishment Republicans. Rubio just isn't scoring enough votes to be a consideration.

A brokered convention just is not going to happen under these conditions, and they just have to accept that this election season is damaged for the GOP. The best they can do is hold onto Congressional power, but they have to start actually doing something if they want to keep their seats.

[RedKing]

Control of the Senate could get dicey for the GOP because downballot pressure in purple States could be higher with a Trump or Cruz (especially Cruz) nom, but they'll hold the House. House districts are so ridiculously gerrymandered across the country that it would take something apocalyptic to swing the House this election. Because unlike parliamentary systems, the guy at the top of the list is not necessarily linked to the local representative. People could come out and hold their nose and vote for Hillary to stop Trump, and then happily pull the lever for Representative Nutsy McShitbag (R) for another term. Only real downballot pressure is if Republican voters stay home, or Democratic turnout surges. And in many House districts, even that wouldn't be enough.

[smjjames]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/06/donald-trump-torture-waterboarding-isis (I know it's The Guardian, but hey) Sounds like Trump wants to go full Medieval, what with 'we have to play the game the way they are playing it'. Which sounds exactly like stooping to their level of savagery. Not to mention completely losing the high moral ground.

Also, Nancy Reagan died, if anybody cares

[Shadowlord]

So Nancy Reagan has died (at 94, of congestive heart failure).

[misko27]

That would end the republican party. Completely.

That may be true, but at the same time that may already be in the works. The GOP civil war has finally broken out completely. No one is safe. At the rate things are happening, such unlikely things that had never been predicted could easily happen. Mitt Romney could well end up the nominee if the establishment really gets ahead at the convention. That show show the degree to which things are degrading. Of course, its also dangerous, as stuff like this hasn't happened in modern politics. The consequences would be, at a minimum, accepting losing the nomination. Just, outright. Romney would hardly have a competitive campaign. And yet it might seem a reasonable idea if Trump and Cruz are leering in. But the consequences, what would they be? Serious at a bare minimum, and potentially devestating. This could be the start of new re-alignment in American Politics, a tremendously rare event. What the Party System would look like after this would be a serious question.

If Donald "The U.S. has become a dumping ground" Trump managed to get 51% of the delegates, then brokering the nomination away from him would cause a lasting schism in the party; a great jagged-edge and fractious fracture.  If he got less, then they don't have a conclusive winner for their own party's nomination and they'd want to broker it away from Donald "The U.S. has become a dumping ground" Trump just to ensure his style of playing the game is not rewarded. But Cruz with the 2nd share of the vote would have all the bargaining power against the remaining nominees, and he's not any better liked by moderate and establishment Republicans. Rubio just isn't scoring enough votes to be a consideration.

A brokered convention just is not going to happen under these conditions, and they just have to accept that this election season is damaged for the GOP. The best they can do is hold onto Congressional power, but they have to start actually doing something if they want to keep their seats.

And yet I would argue that, at this point, the jagged edge in the party is already there. The risk is making it worse, but I don't really see a way of healing it currently. It may well be inevitable at this rate.

So Nancy Reagan has died (at 94, of congestive heart failure).

Rest in Peace I guess. I don't really know much about her.

[PTTG??]

If a re-alignment doess occur, liberals must use it to reconstruct the economy before a permanent economic robotocracy can form. The deadline is coming very soon. In most states, the most common job is truck driver.

[smjjames]

That would end the republican party. Completely.

That may be true, but at the same time that may already be in the works. The GOP civil war has finally broken out completely. No one is safe. At the rate things are happening, such unlikely things that had never been predicted could easily happen. Mitt Romney could well end up the nominee if the establishment really gets ahead at the convention. That show show the degree to which things are degrading. Of course, its also dangerous, as stuff like this hasn't happened in modern politics. The consequences would be, at a minimum, accepting losing the nomination. Just, outright. Romney would hardly have a competitive campaign. And yet it might seem a reasonable idea if Trump and Cruz are leering in. But the consequences, what would they be? Serious at a bare minimum, and potentially devestating. This could be the start of new re-alignment in American Politics, a tremendously rare event. What the Party System would look like after this would be a serious question.

If Donald "The U.S. has become a dumping ground" Trump managed to get 51% of the delegates, then brokering the nomination away from him would cause a lasting schism in the party; a great jagged-edge and fractious fracture.  If he got less, then they don't have a conclusive winner for their own party's nomination and they'd want to broker it away from Donald "The U.S. has become a dumping ground" Trump just to ensure his style of playing the game is not rewarded. But Cruz with the 2nd share of the vote would have all the bargaining power against the remaining nominees, and he's not any better liked by moderate and establishment Republicans. Rubio just isn't scoring enough votes to be a consideration.

A brokered convention just is not going to happen under these conditions, and they just have to accept that this election season is damaged for the GOP. The best they can do is hold onto Congressional power, but they have to start actually doing something if they want to keep their seats.

And yet I would argue that, at this point, the jagged edge in the party is already there. The risk is making it worse, but I don't really see a way of healing it currently. It may well be inevitable at this rate.

Not tremendously rare as they have happened on average of around 40 years, so, roughly a generation or two. People who study that stuff haven't been in agreement on when the current one began (or if the fifth one ended) and Wiki has Obama's 2008 election as a possible realigning election. Though it wasn't a realignment for the Democrats that's for sure.

Meanwhile, Peurto Rico is having it's primary and it looks like Rubio will shut out everybody else from delegates. I'm using http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/puerto-rico/ since Politico doesn't even have the territories on there and CNN hasn't gotten any results yet. You may have to refresh the page in order to update it, though maybe the mouseover bit is actually live.

edit: Yeah, Rubio is going to sweep the Peurto Rican delegates. decisiondesk has called it already.

[Uzu Bash]

Not tremendously rare as they have happened on average of around 40 years, so, roughly a generation or two. People who study that stuff haven't been in agreement on when the current one began (or if the fifth one ended) and Wiki has Obama's 2008 election as a possible realigning election. Though it wasn't a realignment for the Democrats that's for sure.

I'm certainly aware of the Civil Rights Act rebellion that ended in the party of Abraham Lincoln turning into the party of Strom Thurmond, and former Republicans jumping parties to stay in better company, with LBJ namely.

Meanwhile, Peurto Rico is having it's primary and it looks like Rubio will shut out everybody else from delegates. I'm using http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/puerto-rico/ since Politico doesn't even have the territories on there and CNN hasn't gotten any results yet. You may have to refresh the page in order to update it, though maybe the mouseover bit is actually live.

Getting the Hispanic vote would certainly counter the Tparty. They're definitely opposed to Trump, but enough of them still aren't turning out for the Republicans.

[mainiac]

While a contested convention would certainly be ugly, people need to keep in mind they would be managing the optics somewhat.  They wouldn't do something like "oh 1st ballot Trump in the lead with 40%, 2nd ballot Rubio wins with 99%."  They would go through a song and dance and really play up the deadlock before arriving a decision.  It wouldn't be pretty but keep in mind these are the people who managed to shut down government 3 times and turn it into a "he says, she says" issue.  Spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt is their whole fucking raison d'etre.

[Uzu Bash]

Cruz must be deluded if the thinks Rubio and Kasich's votes are being kept from him. The only one taking voters away from him is Trump. If Rubio and Kasich left the race, their votes would vanish before going to Cruz.

It wouldn't be pretty but keep in mind these are the people who managed to shut down government 3 times and turn it into a "he says, she says" issue.  Spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt is their whole fucking raison d'etre.

You're getting your Republicans confused. That was the Tparty. It was the moderates and establishment who chewed them out in Wall Street Journal editorials for it.

[Playergamer]

Cruz must be deluded if the thinks Rubio and Kasich's votes are being kept from him. The only one taking voters away from him is Trump. If Rubio and Kasich left the race, their votes would vanish before going to Cruz.

Nah, don't be so sure about that. I'm from a pretty moderate Republican family, and a lot of them are considering the Ted.

[PTTG??]

Ted is on Cruz Control to the white house.

[smjjames]

Cruz must be deluded if the thinks Rubio and Kasich's votes are being kept from him. The only one taking voters away from him is Trump. If Rubio and Kasich left the race, their votes would vanish before going to Cruz.

All three of them claim that the others are taking away votes and if Rubio and Kasich left the race, some of their votes (though not much) will go to Trump, making it that much harder for Cruz to beat Trump.

[Uzu Bash]

Cruz must be deluded if the thinks Rubio and Kasich's votes are being kept from him. The only one taking voters away from him is Trump. If Rubio and Kasich left the race, their votes would vanish before going to Cruz.

Nah, don't be so sure about that. I'm from a pretty moderate Republican family, and a lot of them are considering the Ted.

Do you really think he stands a chance against Clinton? He's not going to have the turnout Trump can generate, but then Clinton won't get the protest vote turn-out, either. He still doesn't appeal to enough Republicans. I don't think he can get enough enthusiasm from Republican voters to get them to show up at the polls. And the Hispanic vote that the party had sought from before campaigning has already evaporated. Choosing Cruz as the lesser evil is still tantamount to conceding defeat.

[Playergamer]

Family, not me personally. I'm...eh. I'll vote against Trump if he's the nominee. I'll vote against Clinton if she's the nominee and the Republicans choose somebody besides Trump. Besides that...eugh.