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[RedKing]

Trump bailing on the debate is starting to pay dividends -- Cruz is down 5 in Iowa in the last week, losing most of that to Rubio.

Think about it -- he knows Cruz has become the leading Anti-Trump, and he knows the entire field are a bunch of cannibalistic jackals who will instinctively attack the front-runner. By stepping out of the light for an evening, it made Cruz the front-runner at the debate, and the jackals did not disappoint. Plus, Rubio can smell a potential 2nd place finish if he can just bring down Señor Canadian.

This is a big part of why Rubio's pivoted to attacking Cruz instead of Christie, because Christie's no threat to anyone at this point. Except maybe to the proprietors of an all-you-can-eat buffet.

[TheBiggerFish]

CURSE YOU, TRUMP!

[mainiac]

I stand by my view of the hot hand fallacy in action.  If the republican field solidifies around Rubio, that's pretty much the worse possible situation for Trump.

[TheBiggerFish]

@mainiac:The what now?

[Shadowlord]

Politics is not game of chance, though. :V

This was interesting reading and might be informative:
http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/16/military-strategist-explains-why-donald-trump-leads-and-how-he-will-fail/

Oh, and I noticed a parody of trump on the sidebar and it's pretty great: http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/donald-trump-let-me-tell-you-about-smaug/

[mainiac]

@mainiac:The what now?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot-hand_fallacy

Basically just because Trump has lucky breaks in the past doesn't mean he will have lucky breaks in the future.

[mainiac]

http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/donald-trump-let-me-tell-you-about-smaug/

Pssssh, this just goes to show that Trump doesn't understand how the game is really played.  Gondor was a Yuuuuuuuge success.  Elendil?  What a negotiator, what a classy guy.  That guy started out with nothing!  He said he wanted to make a kingdom in the east and his father was like "whoa, we dont build in that part of Middle Earth, that's Istari territory."  But he started out with nothing, he borrowed a warfleet from his father and he goes east and he runs the whole city?  Why?  Because the Middle Men didn't build anymore.  Elendil, that guy is a builder.  Amandil, Isildur, they build stuff.  Isildur,  he builds the White City, he builds Osgiliarth.  He makes jobs for the Middle Men and they let him run the place because the guy is a winner, he knows how to negotiate.  He knows how to go to Sauron and say "hey, you want to come into my country and work, well you gotta pay for that privilege."  And how?  Because the Dunedain are the best people in Middle Earth and they deserve the best military in Middle Earth.

[smjjames]

Well, in the last iowa polls released (THE last one, as in no more), Clinton and Trump have narrow leads. So, it's going to be a real tossup.

[WealthyRadish]

If Trump wins the nomination, I might have to register to vote.

[Shadowlord]

Might be a good idea to find out when the deadline is for that in your state.

[smjjames]

Well, in the last iowa polls released (THE last one, as in no more), Clinton and Trump have narrow leads. So, it's going to be a real tossup.

Though that all depends where O'Malley's 7% goes. It's even more narrow for the Democrat field as a result, because of that ambiguity.

You mean 3%, but the margin of error is 4.0 percentage points (I assume that means an error of 4%). The split between Clinton and Sanders is wthin that and the Trump-Cruz split is close to that, so, it could go anywhere on both sides.

[TheBiggerFish]

FEEL THE BERN.

[redwallzyl]

Bernie sanders recorded an album in the eighty's:

http://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464736315/behind-the-music-bernie-sanders

[Amperzand]

Semi-relevant XKCD.

[RedKing]

http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/donald-trump-let-me-tell-you-about-smaug/

Pssssh, this just goes to show that Trump doesn't understand how the game is really played.  Gondor was a Yuuuuuuuge success.  Elendil?  What a negotiator, what a classy guy.  That guy started out with nothing!  He said he wanted to make a kingdom in the east and his father was like "whoa, we dont build in that part of Middle Earth, that's Istari territory."  But he started out with nothing, he borrowed a warfleet from his father and he goes east and he runs the whole city?  Why?  Because the Middle Men didn't build anymore.  Elendil, that guy is a builder.  Amandil, Isildur, they build stuff.  Isildur,  he builds the White City, he builds Osgiliarth.  He makes jobs for the Middle Men and they let him run the place because the guy is a winner, he knows how to negotiate.  He knows how to go to Sauron and say "hey, you want to come into my country and work, well you gotta pay for that privilege."  And how?  Because the Dunedain are the best people in Middle Earth and they deserve the best military in Middle Earth.

Look, we can't focus on anything till we secure the border with Mordor. When Mordor sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're sending people with all kinds of problems. They're sending Orcs. They're sending Wargs. They're sending Nazgûl. And I some, I assume, are good people, but I speak to the guards at Osgiliath and they're telling us what we're getting.

Merry and Pippin? War heroes? They're not war heroes. They're war heroes because they got captured. I like hobbits who weren't captured.



Meh, that original article was from The Federalist, which is like Breitbart with a nicer suit. I mean, there's an article on there about how the Democrats are the party of Palpatine and the Empire, and a lament from a guy who got a cable package that didn't have FOX about how unbalanced and biased the news is without it.