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[smjjames]

Heres a bit of a funny thing from 538 to read while waiting. The undercard debate starts in 40 min or so. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-primary-dropout-draft/

[Strife26]

Alright, you're delegated to update us as their draft progresses.

[smjjames]

lol strife....

[Strife26]

Or fantasy election league progresses. If I'd have called it that, I would have lost one of the word plays in my sentence, so I could hardly do that.

[mainiac]

I feel like we can improve on this game.  Here's my suggestion: everyone ranks the candidates in the order they will drop out (ommitting Gilmore).  Your score is based on the number of days your prediction is wrong.  For example, suppose I have Jeb Bush as dropping out after Rand Paul and Sanatorum.  Instead Jeb Bush drops out February 10th while Rand Paul stays in until the 21st and Sanatorum stays in until the 24th.  My prediction that Jeb goes before Sanatorum was 14 days off so my score is 14 days.  My prediction about Jeb and Rand Paul was also incorrect, but only by 11 days which is smaller then my 14 day mistake.  So my score for Jeb Bush is 14 days off.  My score for Sanatorum is also 14 days off.  Every candidate prediction is judged independently then you total your prediction errors to arrive at your score.

Does it make sense the way I'm explaining it?  Does anyone want to play?

[smjjames]

I think it makes sense........

Anyhow, the start of the undercard got delayed a bit for some reason I guess (nobody said why), but definetly starting soon.

[mainiac]

I think the sound system broke and they needed to find the indian guy to fix it.

[Strife26]

Wouldn't that system result in anyone who didn't pick the nominee as the nominee have an infinite score?

[mainiac]

Wouldn't that system result in anyone who didn't pick the nominee as the nominee have an infinite score?

Oh right, uh, anyone who doesn't drop out before the end counts as dropping out on the day that the nomination becomes a mathematical certainty (not just overwhelming probability).  Unpledged delegates dont count towards the totals for this.  Unfaithful pledged delegates are not considered a possibility.  Getting the right nominee counts as negative 31 days.

Tiebreaker: If two candidates drop out on the same day, the hours between they announce they are dropping out are used as a tiebreaker.  Hours are not counted unless candidates drop out on the same day.  Days are defined by eastern standard time.

[smjjames]

So, in order to win, you need the lowest (further away from zero) negative score?

[mainiac]

Yeah, lowest score wins like golf, the game of presidential candidates.

For simplicity I think we should only use the candidates debating tonight and leave out Gilmore:
Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Huckabee
Kasich
Paul
Pataki
Rubio
Satorum
Trump

[MetalSlimeHunt]

The MetalSlimeHunt 2016 GOP Primary Draft List Of Fate And Conclusion

1. Graham
2. Pataki
3. Santorum
4. Huckabee
5. Kasich
6. Christie
7. Fiorina
8. Paul
9. Bush
10. Rubio
11. Carson
12. Cruz
13. President Trump, baby!

[smjjames]

You're supposed to list the date that you think they are dropping out MSH.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

No we're not, the score from dropping out is relative, not absolute.

[smjjames]

Tall Short Tall Short

Nice way to mix it up I guess.

And Lindsey Graham is such a little guy, lol....