Long term Shadwoland-- Long term.
1) Oil prices fall precipitously as a result of a major market player's control being lifted from the market. (OPEC dissolves)
2) The big oil compnaies that were profiting from the higher prices, had investment plans that hinged on the income provided by that price structure. It is no longer being met. They cannot simply "Raise prices", because oil is a fungible commodity. OPEC controlled a very large portion of the oil market, and was able to pull a Debeirs Diamonds type cartel operation to force high prices.
3) With this loss of income, Big oil companies are less able to scout for, obtain mineral rights for, and pump up new sources of oil-- All this time, demand remains either the same, or slightly increasing.
4) These companies have cash reserves to wait out market instabilities like these, but the investment plans they rely on simply stop being workable in a long-term repressed market.
5) Since we are long passed peak oil, the inevitable insolvency of big oil companies in the face of global competitors pumping out cheap crude recklessly, the supply will shrink precipitously while demand continues to grow. This *WILL* result in higher prices, eventually-- but not quickly enough to prevent the shortages.
6) Meanwhile, alternative energy sources are becoming more price parity with crude oil, reducing the dependence on oil for energy production. By the time the big players go belly up, and demand curve adjusts global prices, there will be a significant investment window into alternative energy, eroding the power base of big oil.