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[cochramd]

Or more recently in a different thread when someone started acting like complete lack of water rather then bacterial contamination of unimproved water sources was a bigger problem in the 3rd world.

Jesus fucking Christ, THAT was what you were arguing about? Your posts gave off the distinct impression that you believed that all 3rd world communities had access to water and I was merely trying to correct you on the matter. Meanwhile, you entirely ignored the original point I was getting at (which was that people in the 3rd world are FUCKING POOR) to nitpick at the matter of water, making you a hypocrite about "broad context". I'm sorry to have to break this to you, but this isn't an EOS problem, you have some kind of communication disorder and should seek professional help.

[wierd]

Long term Shadwoland-- Long term.


1) Oil prices fall precipitously as a result of a major market player's control being lifted from the market. (OPEC dissolves)
2) The big oil compnaies that were profiting from the higher prices, had investment plans that hinged on the income provided by that price structure. It is no longer being met. They cannot simply "Raise prices", because oil is a fungible commodity. OPEC controlled a very large portion of the oil market, and was able to pull a Debeirs Diamonds type cartel operation to force high prices.
3) With this loss of income, Big oil companies are less able to scout for, obtain mineral rights for, and pump up new sources of oil-- All this time, demand remains either the same, or slightly increasing.
4) These companies have cash reserves to wait out market instabilities like these, but the investment plans they rely on simply stop being workable in a long-term repressed market.
5) Since we are long passed peak oil, the inevitable insolvency of big oil companies in the face of global competitors pumping out cheap crude recklessly, the supply will shrink precipitously while demand continues to grow. This *WILL* result in higher prices, eventually-- but not quickly enough to prevent the shortages.
6) Meanwhile, alternative energy sources are becoming more price parity with crude oil, reducing the dependence on oil for energy production. By the time the big players go belly up, and demand curve adjusts global prices, there will be a significant investment window into alternative energy, eroding the power base of big oil.

[Baffler]

I think this is just what a transition away from oil use is going to look like. The prices fall as competition gets more serious and they try to beat it out by attrition. Oil basically the foundation of the economies of several countries and vital for dozens more, not just in the Middle East either, and losing that will be very painful. That's why we're starting to see ads put out that talk up their importance to the US economy.

Pseudoedit: And weird beats me to the punch.

Or more recently in a different thread when someone started acting like complete lack of water rather then bacterial contamination of unimproved water sources was a bigger problem in the 3rd world.

Jesus fucking Christ, THAT was what you were arguing about? Your posts gave off the distinct impression that you believed that all 3rd world communities had access to water and I was merely trying to correct you on the matter. Meanwhile, you entirely ignored the original point I was getting at (which was that people in the 3rd world are FUCKING POOR) to nitpick at the matter of water, making you a hypocrite about "broad context". I'm sorry to have to break this to you, but this isn't an EOS problem, you have some kind of communication disorder and should seek professional help.

Now that's just rude.

[cochramd]

I think this is just what a transition away from oil use is going to look like. The prices fall as competition gets more serious and they try to beat it out by attrition. Oil basically the foundation of the economies of several countries and vital for dozens more, not just in the Middle East either, and losing that will be very painful. That's why we're starting to see ads put out that talk up their importance to the US economy.

Pseudoedit: Ninja'd by weird.

Yeah, we've got plenty of viable alternatives for fossil fuels. My concern with the looming oil shortage is where we're going to get our raw hydrocarbons from for lubricants and plastics.

Now that's just rude.

It is, but maybe he needs to hear it (I know I've needed to hear a few rude things in my lifetime). I'm no expert, but the degree to which he misinterprets things tells me there's more going on than just EOS.

[wierd]

Or more recently in a different thread when someone started acting like complete lack of water rather then bacterial contamination of unimproved water sources was a bigger problem in the 3rd world.

Jesus fucking Christ, THAT was what you were arguing about? Your posts gave off the distinct impression that you believed that all 3rd world communities had access to water and I was merely trying to correct you on the matter. Meanwhile, you entirely ignored the original point I was getting at (which was that people in the 3rd world are FUCKING POOR) to nitpick at the matter of water, making you a hypocrite about "broad context". I'm sorry to have to break this to you, but this isn't an EOS problem, you have some kind of communication disorder and should seek professional help.

He DID actually communicate that-- The price of the chlorination solution is significantly less than the costs of deploying improved water sources. This is why there are few, if any, improved water sources.

I pointed out that the lack of water is a non-sequitor. Even in industrial nations, lack of local water is a problem-- that is why we use municipal and state water projects. Human settlement sites are chosen on a wide assortment of criteria, and access to water is only one of them. (In the case of african countries, being near to surface water can actually be a NEGATIVE feature, due to malaria risks.)

Mainiac basically said:

People die in africa and other places with developing countries, because of bacterial contamination. This is because it is often cheaper to put in non-improved water sources than improved ones, especially in the face of inexpensive DIY chlorination solutions.

[smjjames]

When did OPEC dissolve? I hadn't really heard anything about that.

[wierd]

When did OPEC dissolve? I hadn't really heard anything about that.

ABout this time last year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283875/Bank-of-America-sees-50-oil-as-Opec-dies.html

[cochramd]

*snip*

You're right, but it was hard to see the point he was trying to make, and I don't think he ever recognized that it was a non sequitur.

[smjjames]

As for plastics, there's a few bacteria species that produce micro-beads of particular plastics. Our plastic industry may soon be reliant on microbiology, of all things.

Yeah, we're advanced enough that we can find alternatives and there are alternatives already, they just aren't economical compared to oil yet.

Also, transportation is the biggest consumer of oil, so, reducing that will give us more time to find alternatives for petroleum based plastics.

 

When did OPEC dissolve? I hadn't really heard anything about that.

ABout this time last year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283875/Bank-of-America-sees-50-oil-as-Opec-dies.html

Oh, that was also about or shortly before Saudi Arabia decided to go solo and attempt to manipulate oil prices on their own.

[Shadowlord]

[7 new replies! Oy.]
[1 new replies! You monsters.]

wierd:
"peak oil" depends on the value of the oil/gas/etc that can be retrieved and sold, which is to say that as the oil price continued to increase (prior to the recent-ish oil price collapse) peak oil got further and further away as resources that were previously considered infeasible to recover became cost-effective.

The price collapse was triggered chiefly by the Saudis. Since the price collapse a lot of the companies that drilled all these new wells that were profitable at higher price points have been continuing to pump out and refine and sell the stuff chiefly because they funded their construction using loans, and have to continue paying on them, as long as they can, or they'll go bankrupt. They essentially bet everything on the premise that oil prices would never go down, and once it did, desperately hoped that it would go back up even as they pumped oil into the market to pay their creditors. They had no choice but to do that or go bankrupt and lose their wells, of course - they're losing either way, since oil they sell cheap now is oil they couldn't sell more profitably when the price goes back up, but they have no choice because loans.

The Saudis are sitting on a bunch of money, so they can afford to run at a loss for a while to try to put other folks out of business - but I don't see why they would want to break OPEC. More likely their goal was to crush America's nascent shale industry (and Russia and anyone else was just collateral damage).

> OPEC doesn't exist anymore because Bank of America says they're effectively dissolved because they couldn't even stabilize prices.
lol
The United Nations isn't dissolved because Russia vetoes every resolution about censuring Assad, or the US vetoes every resolution about censuring Israel.

[mainiac]

and I don't think he ever recognized that it was a non sequitur.

You said the people couldn't afford clean water.  I said:

Clean drinking water is actually really cheap in the developing world, they just are resistant to non traditional methods.  Everyone wants water systems, no one wants clorine.  Guess which one is way cheaper?  But it's not really weird that people act that way.  Here in the USA we kill ourselves with unhealthy food when we could easily cook healthy stuff.

This is a non-sequitur because...?

[cochramd]

and I don't think he ever recognized that it was a non sequitur.

You said the people couldn't afford clean water.  I said:

Clean drinking water is actually really cheap in the developing world, they just are resistant to non traditional methods.  Everyone wants water systems, no one wants clorine.  Guess which one is way cheaper?  But it's not really weird that people act that way.  Here in the USA we kill ourselves with unhealthy food when we could easily cook healthy stuff.

This is a non-sequitur because...?

Even if clean water is only expensive because people refuse to use the cheapest method, that doesn't change the fact there are still people who don't have water and can't spend money on virtual reality technology (of all things!) because they are both dealing with a lack of water and saving up for obtaining a water source.

[wierd]

The "There is no water at all!" angle was the non-sequitor. That's why I pointed it out as such.

cochrand-- No, Getting it from the nonimproved source, and putting in the DIY chlorine tablets is the least expensive solution. Mainiac even cited some (unsourced) numbers.

[cochramd]

The "There is no water at all!" angle was the non-sequitor. That's why I pointed it out as such.

cochrand-- No, Getting it from the nonimproved source, and putting in the DIY chlorine tablets is the least expensive solution. Mainiac even cited some (unsourced) numbers.

But are still people who can't even afford that. And even if they could, people who can only afford the cheapest possible means of obtaining safe water are in no position to spend money on virtual technology. It's all just nitpicking to avoid addressing the primary point that, yes, people in the third world are fucking poor.

[wierd]

I cannot continue the debate from his perspective, as I am not him.

I can only point out what was, or was not said.