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Petro Poroshenko

5 (29.4%)

Yulia Tymoshenko

2 (11.8%)

Oleg Lyashko

2 (11.8%)

Anatoly Hrytsenko

2 (11.8%)

Serhiy Tihipko

0 (0%)

Mykhailo Dobkin

0 (0%)

Other

6 (35.3%)

Total Members Voted: 17

[ragnar119]

Putin wants ukraine to  become a federation, so the pro russian have some influence on kiev (so they dont join NATO or maybe even EU).

If Putin wants Ukraine to not join the EU and NATO, why did he settle for half-measures? Why did he not let the rebels reach Kiyv while the Ukrainian army was in absolute disarray and install a pro-Russian government?  Or, at least, why did he not let the rebels destroy the majority of the Ukraine's forces in a sweeping advance, so that Poroshenko would be much more pliable?

There is a clear action and reaction in things that happened in ukraine, and its not that hard to see whats going around.

I assure you, all things political are very hard to see through the ideology goggles.

Rebels reach Kiev? They did not have the man power of firepower to reach it. The reason for the rebels push is because a lot of ukraine soldiers got surrounded, and their logistics and supply cut out in the pro russian regions, but dont fool your self, they could never reach kiev, as those forces are the main ones deployed there at the time, but it was no where all, not even majority of ukraine military forces.

I mean russian are not hiding what they want. They want ukraine to not enter NATO, they want pro russian regions to be more independent, but still part of ukraine.

[Knit tie]

Actually while I see point 1), I'm not sure about point 2). The Minsk agreement may have weakened the rebels, but from that doesn't follow what Putins intentions about it were. You could as well argue, hypothetically, that as long as "Novorossia" is not under Ukrainian control, it might still join Russia via a fake referendum Crimea-style.

My opinion about the Minsk agreement, which is supported by many rebel commanders in their interviews (which are mostly in Russian, unfortunately), is that it was seriously detrimental to the rebels, who had both the tactical and the strategic advantage at the time, while the Ukrainian Army was spectacularly poorly equipped and even more badly managed. So if Putin wanted land or a regime change in Kiyv, he could've just told the Russian forces to help rebels do some major damage and let 'em roll. Instead, what he did was push for the Minsk agreement, which essentially prevented the rebels from advancing and forced them into a positional war with increasingly well-armed and competent Ukrainian forces. Does he want Ukraine to fall? Again, destroying countries is much more effectively done by letting fighting spread throughout them, rather than by localising it in one place and letting it drain the country's wealth. And why would Putin want Novorussia? It's a complete bombed-out wreck that wasn't that desirable even before the war started.

Rebels reach Kiev? They did not have the man power of firepower to reach it.

Most likely, yes, but why prevent them from reaching at least the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts? A show of power would've been very good for federalisation proposals.

[ragnar119]

If the US had the power to control world oil prices dont you think they would have used that power long, long ago?

They already did that in the past, and they can do it again. Is it because of USA, i dont know, but I know they can control it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar
http://ftmdaily.com/preparing-for-the-collapse-of-the-petrodollar-system/

[Knit tie]

@ragnar119

In regards to the Minsk agreements, there's also the theory that the rebels are lying to themselves when they talk about how wildly successful they would've been if not for the agreement and that in reality their advance would've fizzled out pretty fast. I suppose you support this one?

[Loud Whispers]

They're already using it.

So they didn't use this magical power, oh, 12 years ago because...?

A couple of factors, but to simplify, 12 years ago America didn't have this 'magical power.' 12 years ago Iraq doesn't play nice and keeps its oil closed to Western oil companies. 11 years ago the Iraq War begins. 12 years ago was also conveniently when Shale gas first started being commercially viable in the USA.

Now Saudia Arabia and the USA are both increasing oil and gas production, continuing to drive prices down against OPEC's wishes. They together have the means to do so; Saudi Arabia gets to hurt Iran and the USA gets to hurt Russia. Iraq is currently fucked by ISIS and all other oil producing countries bar China either are too poor and reliant on oil to cut supply without Saudia Arabia doing so too, or are also with the USA like Kuwait and Qatar. The USA has pressured the EU into laying heavy sanctions on Russia, but the problem is the EU needs Russia to buy its exports and Russia needs EU money gained from its own gas exports to do so. EU sanctions on Russia would hurt itself whilst it is still undergoing an economic crisis, and so the nation states of Europe are very reluctant.

But by simply increasing oil production with its middle-eastern allies the USA has effectively wiped over $40B from Russia's gas profits without needing the approval of hesitant EU states.

Also try not to be condescending mainiac, Ukraine crisis threads traditionally ignite rapidly; passive aggression does not contribute to civility.

[Helgoland]

the EU needs Russia to buy its exports

Citation needed.

[Loud Whispers]

the EU needs Russia to buy its exports and Russia needs EU money gained from its own gas exports to do so.

Citation needed.

The full sentence is relevant; it's just economic interdependence. One needs the other and the other needs the other. Russia's top trading partner is the EU and Russia is the EU's 3rd largest trading partner. Nations like Germany exemplify this; a large trade surplus is had exporting to Russia and a significant supply of Russian gas is imported to Germany. Of course, I would not even wish to talk in terms of EU-Russia relations as some nations would be greater affected than others and in different ways; London banks being closed to Russia does not affect their respective economies the same way Greek farms being closed to Russian food markets does.

[Helgoland]

IIRC the portion of German exports going to Russia is something like 3% - and Germany's more involved in the Russia trade than most others.

The EU does not need Russia as anything but a reliable source of hydrocarbons.

[Loud Whispers]

IIRC the portion of German exports going to Russia is something like 3% - and Germany's more involved in the Russia trade than most others.

The EU does not need Russia as anything but a reliable source of hydrocarbons.

In 2013 Germany had a total trade surplus of $260B and its exports to Russia were $48B; it's a deeper relation than one of mere gas imports, albeit one that is not weathering the Ukraine crisis well.

[Helgoland]

So our total exports aren't even a fifth of our trade surplus!

Seriously, Russia is an underdeveloped country with 140 million inhabitants. If it wasn't for its nukes and resources, it would be about as important as Nigeria.

[mainiac]

snip

Or to put it another way, oil prices are determined by supply and demand and the fall of oil prices has exactly zero to do with American views on Russia.  And recent saudi choices have moved markets a lot more then American ones.

[Sergarr]

I think he implies that Saudi's choices are controlled by American ones, mainiac.

[mainiac]

If the US had the power to control the Saudi's like that wouldn't they have used it long ago?

[LordSlowpoke]

A couple of factors, but to simplify, 12 years ago America didn't have this 'magical power.' 12 years ago Iraq doesn't play nice and keeps its oil closed to Western oil companies. 11 years ago the Iraq War begins. 12 years ago was also conveniently when Shale gas first started being commercially viable in the USA.

you don't seem to be very interested in this whole reading thing anyway vOv

[mainiac]

That's not describing US controlling oil price though.