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[Erkki]

Saudis flexing their muscles at first opportunity on a much smaller neighbor against which they might actually win their first war. Oil prices already jumped up.

[Neonivek]

Ok I am going to ask a dumb question here...

Why is it taking so long to deal with ISIS?

Is it the same reason as most? lots of land to cover, underground, bad terrain?

[martinuzz]

Mostly because Russia decided to keep Assad in power

[Erkki]

USA and other Western powers are reluctant to committ tens of thousands of troops and stupid amounts of money for another decade in Iraq. The people in charge instead do help Iraq and the Kurds a bit and try to deal with the Saudis diplomatically while avoiding any mistakes that could end their careers as politicians.

[Sheb]

The Americans learned the hard way in Iraq (first against Hussein, then against AQI) that there is little point in defeating an enemy if you don't have local forces ready to hold the ground afterward (unless you want to do the occupation yourself). So against ISIS there has been a deliberate strategy of fighting through the Iraqis to make sure they are able to hold once ISIS is defeated. Sure, a couple Marine divisions could have retaken Mosul months ago, but what's the point if it's to have another ISIS comeback in a few years?

In Syria this process was even slower due to the need to create the SDF.

[smjjames]

The Americans learned the hard way in Iraq (first against Hussein, then against AQI) that there is little point in defeating an enemy if you don't have local forces ready to hold the ground afterward (unless you want to do the occupation yourself). So against ISIS there has been a deliberate strategy of fighting through the Iraqis to make sure they are able to hold once ISIS is defeated. Sure, a couple Marine divisions could have retaken Mosul months ago, but what's the point if it's to have another ISIS comeback in a few years?

In Syria this process was even slower due to the need to create the SDF.

I don't think we created the SDF, it coalesced on it's own. The forces in Syria that we DID attempt to create though, were a complete and utter failure, since they either got killed or their loyalty to their country was greater than loyalty to the CIA.

On the whole Quatar thing, they all need to look themselves in the mirror honestly because they all are themselves guilty of supporting terrorism in some way or another. And more war in the MidEast is the last thing that it needs. Not sure what the goal of them declaring war on Quatar would be, overthrow the Emir there? Annex it? Also, the tensions aren't sudden, they've been building for a while now.

[martinuzz]

Qatar has nice loot

[Erkki]

Qatar has the 3rd largest natural gas deposits in the world right after Russia and Iran.

[smjjames]

I suppose Saudi Arabia could force Quatar into being their vassal...

Complicating things though, is that the US has a military base in Quatar, so, if a war does break out, Trump may be forced to choose sides. Though to be honest, I think he'd just sit on the sideline and cheer for whoever looks like they'd win, plus the fact that it'd be a real test of his promise to stay out of other countries problems and not get sucked into wars.

It could be possible to sit that one out, at the risk of Russia or someone else filling the vacuum and being an arbitrator between the two sides.

[Erkki]

I suppose Saudi Arabia could force Quatar into being their vassal...

Complicating things though, is that the US has a military base in Quatar, so, if a war does break out, Trump may be forced to choose sides. Though to be honest, I think he'd just sit on the sideline and cheer for whoever looks like they'd win, plus the fact that it'd be a real test of his promise to stay out of other countries problems and not get sucked into wars.

It could be possible to sit that one out, at the risk of Russia or someone else filling the vacuum and being an arbitrator between the two sides.

Also USN's 5th Fleet has its headquarters and largest naval base in the Middle East right across the strait, in Bahrain.

[smjjames]

Yeah, it'd be interesting, in a historical perspective sort of way as it's his first major diplomatic crisis* not of his own making, to see how Trump reacts to this. Though he hasn't yet said anything publicly and US officials (Tillerson and others) are urging calm and for all parties to sit down and talk over their differences and disagreements. Which is to be expected.

*I know theres the NK thing, but that's a chronic diplomatic crisis, this one is new.

[Playergamer]

ooooh. please tell me we're going to war with saudi arabia.

fuck those guys. fuck those guys so hard.

[TheDarkStar]

That would require us being allies with Iran, which is not going to happen under the current administration.

[Vilanat]

ooooh. please tell me we're going to war with saudi arabia.

fuck those guys. fuck those guys so hard.

What did i miss? What have they done (now)?

[Playergamer]

That would require us being allies with Iran, which is not going to happen under the current administration.

well we're defensive allies with qatar, sooo...please please please. it'd be gulf war 2.0, all that KSA defense spending and no competence whatsoever.