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[Sheb]

Oh, dang, I forgot about THIS thread. Maybe my new middle-eastern shitstorm thread ain't needed

[smjjames]

We kind of do need a more general MidEast clusterfuck thread anyway......

[Helgoland]

Yeesh, things are ramping up fast over there. Saudi-Iranian war anybody?......

Naah, they'll stick to proxy warfare. An Iranian-sponsored Shiite rebellion in Saudi-Arabia though...

[smjjames]

Yeesh, things are ramping up fast over there. Saudi-Iranian war anybody?......

Naah, they'll stick to proxy warfare. An Iranian-sponsored Shiite rebellion in Saudi-Arabia though...

Would the Shiites have the numbers for that kind of thing?

[Sheb]

Well, they don't really border each other, so war is hard. It could get shitty quick if Iran decides to block the stratis of Ormuz.

[martinuzz]

A Saudi-Iranian war is the last thing we need happening there, but is a looming danger that's always been hanging over the area indeed, and seems to be heating up now.

If it comes to that, I have no idea what will happen.

Will the US support Saudi Arabia in such event, or will they finally realize that their oil pals have been playing them all along for their own preservation of power and regional dominance, ever since they asked them to free Kuwait from Saddam, and that they're basically as fanatically anti-unbelievers, and as barbaric as IS/Daesh?

Neutrality might be the best option for any western coalition, since the US backing Iran is very unlikely to happen in any near future. Although Western airplanes defending Iranian airspace could go some ways in helping Iranians overcome the national trauma of US/UK treachery in the 1950s.

[Wolfhunter107]

To be completely honest, I doubt that the Saudis and the Iranians will escalate beyond this.

[Strife26]

A Saudi-Iranian war is the last thing we need happening there, but is a looming danger that's always been hanging over the area indeed, and seems to be heating up now.

If it comes to that, I have no idea what will happen.

Will the US support Saudi Arabia in such event, or will they finally realize that their oil pals have been playing them all along for their own preservation of power and regional dominance, ever since they asked them to free Kuwait from Saddam, and that they're basically as fanatically anti-unbelievers, and as barbaric as IS/Daesh?

Neutrality might be the best option for any western coalition, since the US backing Iran is very unlikely to happen in any near future. Although Western airplanes defending Iranian airspace could go some ways in helping Iranians overcome the national trauma of US/UK treachery in the 1950s.

I'll argue that it's absolutely the best from a straight realpolitik standpoint. Let the whole region blow up and realign itself. Whoever comes out will be destroyed enough to require Western or Eastern rebuilding, make sure the West is the one who comes out favored, and NATO hegemony is ensured until Europe self destructs.

[Loud Whispers]

If it comes to that, I have no idea what will happen.

Bad things, good things and bad things, in that order

Will the US support Saudi Arabia in such event, or will they finally realize that their oil pals have been playing them all along for their own preservation of power and regional dominance, ever since they asked them to free Kuwait from Saddam, and that they're basically as fanatically anti-unbelievers, and as barbaric as IS/Daesh?

inb5 Israel remembers its claim to Persraibia
Also I find it's very racist to treat the Arabs as barbarians on the level of ISIS, they're not idiots m8 and they're right now running rings around Murrica

Neutrality might be the best option for any western coalition, since the US backing Iran is very unlikely to happen in any near future. Although Western airplanes defending Iranian airspace could go some ways in helping Iranians overcome the national trauma of US/UK treachery in the 1950s.

What a dumb reason to start WWIII
lol whatevs all problems can be solved by bombing the middle east

I'll argue that it's absolutely the best from a straight realpolitik standpoint. Let the whole region blow up and realign itself. Whoever comes out will be destroyed enough to require Western or Eastern rebuilding, make sure the West is the one who comes out favored, and NATO hegemony is ensured until Europe self destructs.

From a straight realpolitik standpoint you make the region realign itself on your lines, I'm sure the West and the Commies were both equally surprised before WWII when their efforts to make Germany go one way or the other made them go the third way. Then they dallied in fighting them until they were fighting them unprepared
Basically
Hitler

[Strife26]

Trying to make the Middle East along any planned lines seems to have been a great failure every time someone's tried.

[Vilanat]

In case of a direct war the West will not lift a finger to help the Saudis. the subtleties in speeches both from Saudi Arabia and the West pretty much tell of a Western departure from Saudi Arabia toward Iran long before the Nuclear Deal was signed and which the West kindly ignored all the breaches and double versions the Iranians pulled on them since day one of that agreement. i don't hold bright future for Saudi Arabia since those Salafists had enough time and money to become a bright country yet stayed an oil powered glorified beduin tribe. on the other hand, Iran is actually a mountain of good potential waiting to erupt. that said, the West will also not lift a finger to help the Iranians. at best, we would see emotional speeches by the Western head governments and the U.N calling for people to reach peaceful conclusions.

In a direct war i don't see how Iran could win so they will have to take it into other battlefields and not just in the Middle East.

[Sergarr]

A Saudi-Iranian war is the last thing we need happening there, but is a looming danger that's always been hanging over the area indeed, and seems to be heating up now.

If it comes to that, I have no idea what will happen.

Will the US support Saudi Arabia in such event, or will they finally realize that their oil pals have been playing them all along for their own preservation of power and regional dominance, ever since they asked them to free Kuwait from Saddam, and that they're basically as fanatically anti-unbelievers, and as barbaric as IS/Daesh?

Neutrality might be the best option for any western coalition, since the US backing Iran is very unlikely to happen in any near future. Although Western airplanes defending Iranian airspace could go some ways in helping Iranians overcome the national trauma of US/UK treachery in the 1950s.

I'll argue that it's absolutely the best from a straight realpolitik standpoint. Let the whole region blow up and realign itself. Whoever comes out will be destroyed enough to require Western or Eastern rebuilding, make sure the West is the one who comes out favored, and NATO hegemony is ensured until Europe self destructs.

That one assumes that the wave of destruction won't overflow into Europe proper and drag it down, as well, which is foolish considering recent refugee crisis.

In other words, it's a stupid short-sighted policy that is unworthy of being called "realpolitik". Kind of like that Libya adventure.

[Strife26]

Hey, what spills into Europe is Europe's problem. They're not going to be so screwed up that Russia can roll to the Rhine, so it's perfectly fine.

Obviously, from the completely twisted lens I'm arguing with, not that I have any problem whatsoever with a strict hands off the damn middle east stance. I'm much happier, as a country, dealing with refugees than I am with another war.

[Loud Whispers]

Hey, what spills into Europe is Europe's problem.

W W I I I
W
I
I
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They're not going to be so screwed up that Russia can roll to the Rhine, so it's perfectly fine.

Ha

Trying to make the Middle East along any planned lines seems to have been a great failure every time someone's tried.

Right now Yemen is basically Saudi Arabia and Iraq and Syria outside of jihad bants are basically Iran

Also we don't need this to spread to nuclear-armed Pakistan

[Strife26]

Hey, what spills into Europe is Europe's problem.

W W I I I
W
I
I
I
 

Hey, neither 2 nor 1 were especially bad for American interests.