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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - GAME OVER! SCUM WIN!  (Read 59910 times)

TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #240 on: June 03, 2014, 08:03:10 pm »

Also, I just realized that I forgot to remove a [/color] from my post. Oops.
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LARD

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #241 on: June 03, 2014, 09:25:23 pm »

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. 

To TDS and Jack:  The main suspicion on me, that of voting borno and not tn is understandable, but I addressed it when I made the suspicious statements and votes.  I said that tn is behaving scummy, as in giving up, lashing out etc, but that could just be the signs of not understanding our game play. In addition to that, I agree with 4maskwolf's policy of not lynching new players (judging on their game play) on the first day.  I also thought that having a destabilizing force to the discussions, such as a hot-head or person with different play style would encourage discussion and would help us find scum. 

Anyway, if I was mafia, the only reason I can think of for me to distance myself from tn and not vote him would be if he was mafia.  He is was town, and so I think that point is kind of moot.

Jack A T As for borno's questions, here are the answers
Most of my questions on borno were just to put pressure on, and to tell the truth, I had just jumped in and replaced and I thought borno was the most likely candidate. He reminds me a lot of myself when scum, refusing to rise to bait and calmly refuting evidence, but restating himself and not hunting other people because he is too busy defending himself.
Most of his points on me were just him wondering about my views on him and tn. This is understandable, but I think I explained it here.
Borno seems to me like a fairly experienced player playing scum.
tn5421 seems to me like a rather twitchy player, possibly indicating scum, but more likely indicating unfamiliarity with this forum's playstyle. In any case, he will be useful to stir things up and get reactions, just like I was in my first game.
and here
I agree that he is probably mafia, but I he is typical of depressed new player under fire as exemplified in Kingmaker IV.

I said that borno's vote on tn was useless because tn just gave up. He wouldn't respond to the vote. So borno's vote would probably be more telling elsewhere.

Jack A T
I thought this was going to be a strong scum lean, but then I read through your posts, so you're leaning town.
TDS This is confusing, you say you were incredibly suspicious of Jack, before you read his posts?  I dunno, this seems a bit suspect.  Could just be a slip of the tongue, is that right? Or is there more here?

Kansa
To LARD: Honestly because I'm not entirely sure who is and who isn't mafia at this point, I probably should have cast a vote earlier on to add pressure to somebody but as we are really close to the end now it wouldn't do anything.
I would probably wait for them to slip up and contradict something or do something that makes them seem suspicious, I'm not really sure what questions to ask to make them slip up though. As for the actual method of that I would probably as them a question to clarify the part that contradicted something else or made them suspicious in my eyes.
This doesn't sit right for me. You just seem to be acting confused and unsure of yourself. That in itself is not a bad thing, but you use it as an excuse for not hunting or voting.  Don't worry about that, you are far more suspicious when you sit on the fence than when you start hunting and savagely tearing people apart for their smallest verbal blunders.
Oh, and waiting for mafia to slip up and contradict themselves is something that will keep you waiting for a while.  When somebody does contradict themselves, it is more often than not just an honest townie mistake.

So Kansa, You are sitting on the fence, confused and unsure, while afraid to make a move against anybody for fear of looking suspicious.  You should probably have cast your vote, it would have taken the suspicion off your head.  But you didn't. And now bad things will happen.  :P


As for reads, I have no idea who would have killed tn5421. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
Jack: Probably would have killed Tiruin, the other IC, not tn5421.  But we did make a lot of comments how the doctor/jailkeeper should protect the IC's. Moderate town. I would like to see his opinions on Tiruin
Tiruin: Same as Jack but vice versa.  Also moderate town. But I can't read experienced players very well. I would like to see her opinions on Jack.
TDS Respond to my above question. Then we'll see.
RangerCado: Scum did exactly what you expected eh?  Seems like you know a lot about what the mafia are doing :P. Whatever, just post more, I need to form a better opinion of you.
Kansa: Has my vote. For above reasons.
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RangerCado

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #242 on: June 03, 2014, 09:55:28 pm »

First, lets get my reads out of the way.

    LARD: Slight town read so far. Haven't had enough time reading his posts or go more indepth into his posts for more than that, but from what I've seen so far he's leaning town.

    TheDarkStar: Evidence shows a good lean town, but something is giving me a bad feeling. I don't know what, and have to physical evidence reason why. Something is just... offsetting to me, as bad as that sounds.

    Deathsword: Null read still. Replaced an inactive player and didn't get too many posts from him, though gut feeling is giving me a slight town read from what i saw in a skim back, I don't have anything to really base it off.

    Kansa: Null read. Mostly still trying to learn the game, hasn't posted too much that gives any real information for me, and has posted so much less since before day end. Hoping he gets more active soon.

    Jack A T: Either good town, or really good scum. Jack is the kind of IC i'm always wary of as he puts his cases and posts into his tips and explanations. It makes it me nervous, and unsure of what I could be missing in the veil of explanations. I'll have to keep a good eye on his posts, and I encourage the rest of you as well. Was the final vote on borno, which always makes me suspicious.

    Tiruin: Good lean town for me despite RL getting in the way. Her posts are still informative, with little I could attempt to nit-pick to find scummy.

Jack: I was about 70% sure. He tunneled tn5421, then went called out on it, took minimal efforts to stop his tunneling, and was grasping at very minor evidence to try and rally everyone against him. My vote on tn5421 was mostly out of frustration and annoyance at seeing someone just give up for no good reason.

Being the final vote on borno before lynch puts you under a bit of suspicion in and of itself. What was your thought process behind that vote? Was it a bandwagon vote to avoid suspicion? How likely did you think he was scum?

TDS: I didn't vote for tn due to, after calming down and getting over my annoyance, seeing that all he was was a frustrated player who was getting punished for trying to learn a different style they didn't understand.

...And can you explain how you think I interpreted his post? I don't see what your pointing out. Whats your thoughts on the two voties getting killed off day and night 1?

LARD: If you'll look back, you'll notice I stated this exact situation in one of my posts. I'll go find it on request, but yes, it happened how I said and thought it might.
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Silthuri

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #243 on: June 03, 2014, 10:20:23 pm »

Votecount:
  • LARD:
  • TheDarkStar: Jack A T
  • Deathsword:
  • RangerCado: TheDarkStar
  • Kansa: LARD
  • Jack A T:
  • Tiruin:

Not voting: Kansa, Deathsword, RangerCado, Tiruin

Day two will end thursday  at 10 pm EST.

Votes to extend: [0/3]
Votes to shorten: [0/4]
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Jack A T

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #244 on: June 04, 2014, 01:49:49 am »

If you're going to try to interpret the NK, do take caution.  It is a road that can easily lead to much WIFOM.  Remember that there are two scum, and that they have a private advisor.  This is not an area from which strong evidence for or against a specific player is likely to come.

TheDarkStar:
Spoiler: TheDarkStar (click to show/hide)

Jack: Probably would have killed Tiruin, the other IC, not tn5421.  But we did make a lot of comments how the doctor/jailkeeper should protect the IC's. Moderate town. I would like to see his opinions on Tiruin
LARD: Please tell me that your read of me is based on more than just very WIFOMy nightkill speculation.  For that matter, please tell me that your read of Tiruin is based on more than just very WIFOMy nightkill speculation.

In addition, why do you think that I would have killed Tiruin (and vice versa)?

Regarding Tiruin, I've given my opinions in my reads.

A question: Did you believe that a living tn5421, with the willingness to play that he demonstrated, would have been an effective destabilizing force?

   Jack A T: Either good town, or really good scum.
RangerCado: And which do you lean towards me being, if you lean either way?
Jack is the kind of IC i'm always wary of as he puts his cases and posts into his tips and explanations. It makes it me nervous, and unsure of what I could be missing in the veil of explanations. I'll have to keep a good eye on his posts, and I encourage the rest of you as well.
Just know that any advice I give is in good faith, and anything else is important to keep a good eye on.
Being the final vote on borno before lynch puts you under a bit of suspicion in and of itself. What was your thought process behind that vote?
Spoiler: The Thought Process (click to show/hide)
What did you expect to get out of this question?
How likely did you think he was scum?
Not incredibly likely, but more likely than anyone else at the time.  Probably around 45%: significantly higher than the baseline chance of 25%, but still a day 1 suspicion.  Still likely wrong.

I think people often think of 50% as a neutral baseline.  It's not.
    TheDarkStar: Evidence shows a good lean town, but something is giving me a bad feeling. I don't know what, and have to physical evidence reason why. Something is just... offsetting to me, as bad as that sounds.
Alright, I've been noticing a sort of division you put up in your reads between the evidence (that is, what you think a player's behaviour points to) and your feelings about players (that is, what their behaviour actually points you to).  You did this before, back with your read of tn5421.

A few questions:
*What is the evidence that you think points towards TheDarkStar being town?
*Can you think of any reason why you are getting the bad feeling that you are getting?
*Is there a reason for this division of your feelings and what you think the evidence points to?
*Which do you trust more, in general?  How about in this specific situation?
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Screw you, Jack.

Kansa

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #245 on: June 04, 2014, 12:37:44 pm »

I'm sorry but I think I should probably drop out of this, I'm not putting in the effort I should do at this moment and I'm really not helping. Someone will probably use this spot better than I am and I think I should watch a few more games before attempting to play one.

I'm sorry
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TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #246 on: June 04, 2014, 01:10:50 pm »

Jack A T:

TheDarkStar:

I forgot to put an explicit statement of my read on you in.  I shall correct that now: scum lean.  My reasons are in my reads post.

I wasn't just trying to get you to post reads.  Believe me, I could have done that with a lot less.  I want you to explain your Day 1 behaviour.  Your active-lurky, unfocused Day 1 behaviour.  Your "semi-irrelevant" Day 1 behaviour.

Now, would you be so kind as to actually answer the assorted questions I linked to in my reads post?  Because you're not.  You somehow managed to respond to only the questions I missed, and even those you largely left unanswered:
Could you also elaborate on why you basically created two possible scumteams there? (bolded relevant parts). Why would the scum team be, say, borno and Cado instead of borno and Jack?
Also, to answer his question, I had two main ideas for scumteams because of the way that people seemed to be cooperating, but later things made this doubtful. However, I still see Jack A T as scummy.
You can say your opinions have changed as many times as you want, but that doesn't mean you can avoid explaining why you thought what you claimed to think yesterday.

... you use some reasoning that has mostly been used already.
Do remember that there is a difference between reasoning and evidence.  I used some of the same evidence that others used (the "pressure vote" thing), but the reasoning I used to apply said evidence was very different than prior reasoning.

Also, please preview your posts before posting.  Not only did you leave an extra colour tag in, but you left fragments early on from when you thought I was scum in the Deathsword section of the post before saying in my section that you think I am town.

1. You only said I was scum now; your previous reason for voting was essentially a pressure vote where you asked me questions and reads. Why do you suddenly think I am scum now?
2. Explanation for my behavior: I replaced in, spent time reading the thread, had some ideas, and then saw more things make my ideas wrong. I thought that I saw scumbuddying between tn and you and between Ranger and borno. Later, though, that fell apart when you and Ranger had similar ideas and finally voted for the same person, I was less sure. Because tn and borno are both town, though, it was an incorrect idea originally.
3. As for the questions, I missed those and thought you were referring to the ones I answered. My responses:
     -I didn't specifically search for scumteams, but I noticed some things that bugged me.
     -I listed the two most likely scumteams from my point of view at that point. Although I didn't make it clear, I was open to there being other ways that it could work out.
     -I think Tiruin is town because she's active and contributes. She's hard to read, though.
     -I suspected buddying between borno and Ranger because Ranger was the only one defending borno for a while.
     -I waited to vote because I was unsure of who to vote for.
4. Good point about reasoning and evidence; I didn't think of it like that.



LARD:

To TDS and Jack:  The main suspicion on me, that of voting borno and not tn is understandable, but I addressed it when I made the suspicious statements and votes.  I said that tn is behaving scummy, as in giving up, lashing out etc, but that could just be the signs of not understanding our game play. In addition to that, I agree with 4maskwolf's policy of not lynching new players (judging on their game play) on the first day.  I also thought that having a destabilizing force to the discussions, such as a hot-head or person with different play style would encourage discussion and would help us find scum. 

Anyway, if I was mafia, the only reason I can think of for me to distance myself from tn and not vote him would be if he was mafia.  He is was town, and so I think that point is kind of moot.

Jack A T As for borno's questions, here are the answers
Most of my questions on borno were just to put pressure on, and to tell the truth, I had just jumped in and replaced and I thought borno was the most likely candidate. He reminds me a lot of myself when scum, refusing to rise to bait and calmly refuting evidence, but restating himself and not hunting other people because he is too busy defending himself.
Most of his points on me were just him wondering about my views on him and tn. This is understandable, but I think I explained it here.
Borno seems to me like a fairly experienced player playing scum.
tn5421 seems to me like a rather twitchy player, possibly indicating scum, but more likely indicating unfamiliarity with this forum's playstyle. In any case, he will be useful to stir things up and get reactions, just like I was in my first game.
and here
I agree that he is probably mafia, but I he is typical of depressed new player under fire as exemplified in Kingmaker IV.

I said that borno's vote on tn was useless because tn just gave up. He wouldn't respond to the vote. So borno's vote would probably be more telling elsewhere.

Jack A T
I thought this was going to be a strong scum lean, but then I read through your posts, so you're leaning town.
TDS This is confusing, you say you were incredibly suspicious of Jack, before you read his posts?  I dunno, this seems a bit suspect.  Could just be a slip of the tongue, is that right? Or is there more here?

-snip-


1. You literally said that tn was probably mafia, but you didn't vote for him.
2. borno is new too, right?
3. It could also help to distance yourself from tn by voting for the person who everyone thinks is scummy and then have the person who you decided was town get killed, making you seem more town-aligned.
4. Why do you think borno wasn't voting for tn because he thought tn was scum?
5. I was suspicious of Jack when I just read posts as they came to the thread (and I skimmed some of them), but my opinion changed when I read through things in detail.
6. Updated read list?

Kansa
To LARD: Honestly because I'm not entirely sure who is and who isn't mafia at this point, I probably should have cast a vote earlier on to add pressure to somebody but as we are really close to the end now it wouldn't do anything.
I would probably wait for them to slip up and contradict something or do something that makes them seem suspicious, I'm not really sure what questions to ask to make them slip up though. As for the actual method of that I would probably as them a question to clarify the part that contradicted something else or made them suspicious in my eyes.
This doesn't sit right for me. You just seem to be acting confused and unsure of yourself. That in itself is not a bad thing, but you use it as an excuse for not hunting or voting.  Don't worry about that, you are far more suspicious when you sit on the fence than when you start hunting and savagely tearing people apart for their smallest verbal blunders.
Oh, and waiting for mafia to slip up and contradict themselves is something that will keep you waiting for a while.  When somebody does contradict themselves, it is more often than not just an honest townie mistake.

So Kansa, You are sitting on the fence, confused and unsure, while afraid to make a move against anybody for fear of looking suspicious.  You should probably have cast your vote, it would have taken the suspicion off your head.  But you didn't. And now bad things will happen.  :P

This isn't actually a good accusation; mafia actually mess up fairly often. Finding it can be difficult, but it's there. Also, when you're confused, random voting or joining the mob is usually a bad idea. Why are you voting someone who seems unsure who to vote for? It's a problem later on, but it's not that bad on Day 1.
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Teneb

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #247 on: June 04, 2014, 04:46:18 pm »

Sorry for dropping like that, but I had internet problems due to a damaged cable as well as tests. That's all done though.

Whats your take on buddying, if I may ask as well?
It depends a lot on meta. For instance, Tiruin buddying is null, since she tends to do that regardless of alignment. If I don't know someone's meta, or if their meta goes against buddying, then I'd question them.

I didn't suspect borno or tn (although I found tn's resignation from defending himself odd) so the only thing that changed is that I find TDS somewhat scummier.

More comming, I have to go now.
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LARD

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #248 on: June 04, 2014, 06:02:02 pm »

Kansa
Spoiler: Please don't go! (click to show/hide)


1. You literally said that tn was probably mafia, but you didn't vote for him.
2. borno is new too, right?
3. It could also help to distance yourself from tn by voting for the person who everyone thinks is scummy and then have the person who you decided was town get killed, making you seem more town-aligned.
4. Why do you think borno wasn't voting for tn because he thought tn was scum?
5. I was suspicious of Jack when I just read posts as they came to the thread (and I skimmed some of them), but my opinion changed when I read through things in detail.
6. Updated read list?
Quote from: LARD
So Kansa, You are sitting on the fence, confused and unsure, while afraid to make a move against anybody for fear of looking suspicious.  You should probably have cast your vote, it would have taken the suspicion off your head.  But you didn't. And now bad things will happen.  :P

This isn't actually a good accusation; mafia actually mess up fairly often. Finding it can be difficult, but it's there. Also, when you're confused, random voting or joining the mob is usually a bad idea. Why are you voting someone who seems unsure who to vote for? It's a problem later on, but it's not that bad on Day 1


1. I already responded to this. See above post.
2. He doesn't play like a newb.
3. No it couldn't. It would have made more sense to nk Jack or Tiruin, and then push for a lynch on tn5421. He is a fairly easy target as he went into despair as soon as he had a vote on him.
4. Borno was voting for tn.
5. Not good enough. I need more elaboration. What about your first impressions made you suspicious of him? and why do you think he is town now.
6. No change, except for a bit more suspicious of you. I don't use FoS, but if I did, you would have mine.

I believe that my accusation on Kansa is a good one because he is fence sitting. He was dithering and not making any strong statements or scum-hunting attempts. I guess he was just flying under the radar.
I will unvote for now because he's asked for a replacement, but I will probably interrogate his replacement most strongly.

Also darkstar, I am very close to voting for you, so keep that in mind. It is a little threat, but I am still going after Kansa.

Jack:  WIFOM is not all bad, but it isn't very strong either.  I thought you would have killed Tiruin because she is experienced and would help the town. I would expect her to kill you for the same reasons. In truth, I expected anybody to nk an IC.
And tn's apathetic presence -> arguments about whether apathy is scumtell -> arguments in general -> good discussion.  Generally, unexpected happenstances tend to lead us through this process.
See the problem with my read on you is that you just seem to be playing a normal, experienced, mafia game.  You don't seem to take risks and don't stand out except for directing conversation. That is why I can't ready you very well.

If you're going to try to interpret the NK, do take caution.  It is a road that can easily lead to much WIFOM.  Remember that there are two scum, and that they have a private advisor.  This is not an area from which strong evidence for or against a specific player is likely to come.

It is, however, a good conversation starter and I will milk it to its fullest potential.


Jack and Tiruin As the IC's I would like to see you two go head to head because it would be instructive and interesting. If one of you is scum then I would like to know sooner rather than later because later you will be rallying the town to attack itself because that's what good scum does.

If that is not an option, then at least answer this: What possible motives are there for killing tn5421 other than avoiding being blocked?

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RangerCado

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #249 on: June 04, 2014, 06:33:55 pm »

(Responding to people right after my last post, starting with Jack)

Jack: I am neutral right now, but am going to work on a side before day end.

From your case, I was just prodding really, trying to see if you would attempt to explain your reasons again instead of quoting your previous post with it. Its a way to catch flaws if someone does in the former way, but the latter also can give stuff away depending on the situation. (The 50% baseline on scummy or not scummy is also relative to the player, so I disagree with that reasoning a bit)

My evidence for TDS being town is him being active, making his cases clear and understandable with his points, and (despite it being meta) is acting how i've seen him be town previously, and not how he plays scum generally. (Which for reference is more passive in his hunting) The bad feeling could be something I noticed unconsciously. It may also be that this is the most indepth with his reads that i've seen him go, quoting specific posts in his evidence isn't something i've seen him do before.

Generally, I try to trust my gut on these things as your unconscious mind can usually be trusted for me. In this situation? I'll have to see what I feel at day end.

Kansa: :( :( :( I'm sorry this isn't the game for you.

TDS: In your responses to Jack, you state you saw evidence of me buddying borno? Could you quote or give an example of this? I don't recall this.

borno has also played atleast 2 other BMs that I know of, so he's not THAT new of a player.

LARD:
TDS is asking why you think borno's vote wasn't based on thinking he was scum, not why borno wasn't voting tn thought he was. Also, the NK of an IC doesn't always reveal much information, and in fact can be used to create suspicion against them for various reasons. (Though that is stepping into even more WIFOM territory, which I try to avoid despite the hilarity of the Princess Bride.)

And what do you believe will change when Kansa is replaced? Do you really see anything scummy about his confused and unsure play?
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Silthuri

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #250 on: June 04, 2014, 09:39:21 pm »

Votecount:
  • LARD:
  • TheDarkStar: Jack A T (1)
  • Deathsword:
  • RangerCado: TheDarkStar (1)
  • Kansa:
  • Jack A T:
  • Tiruin:

Not voting: Kansa, Deathsword, RangerCado, Tiruin, LARD

Day two will end tomorrow at 10 pm EST.

Votes to extend: [0/3]
Votes to shorten: [0/4]

Kansa has requested replacement.
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Jack A T

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #251 on: June 05, 2014, 02:29:12 am »

Very quick post before sleep:

Extend.

MyOwnWorstEnemy: Please prod Tiruin.
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FUCK YOU JACK
Quote from: Urist Imiknorris, Witches' Coven 2 Elfchat
YOU TRAITOROUS SWINE.
Screw you, Jack.

Tiruin

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #252 on: June 05, 2014, 07:01:46 am »

Extend
Bad stuff happened IRL in the past couple of days. Sorry.

Edit: MOWE didn't send a Prod, I was mentally prodded :P
This has been on my mind sine day start but...I could only post in things just to get them going--couldn't think about this much in the meantime.
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LARD

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #253 on: June 05, 2014, 08:16:29 am »

Extend too, not much else from me. Sorry.
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Re: Beginner's Mafia XLVII: Vampire Coven - Day Two
« Reply #254 on: June 05, 2014, 08:56:51 am »

PTDfun has replaced Kansa!

Day has been extended! Day ends Monday at 10 pm EST.

Edit: MOWE didn't send a Prod, I was mentally prodded :P
I've only actually managed to prod like 2 people. By the time I see the requests and such, they've posted.

MOWE is bad mod... :(
Logged
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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