Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

0 (0%)

So yeah.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Oh nono, Putin's finally admitted that they're Russian specops, they ought to stop calling them 'self-defense units'!

[smjjames]

I don't think Putin actually admitted that they were spec-ops?

Still, it's been suspected and known (just not OFFICIALLY confirmed) that the so called protestors were actually russian troops. After all, where would they get all that gear and vehichles from? I doubt you can buy an APC at an army surplus store, at least not one that is in current use.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

"Military servicemen"
http://rt.com/news/crimea-defense-russian-soldiers-108/

[smjjames]

"Military servicemen"
http://rt.com/news/crimea-defense-russian-soldiers-108/

He only admitted that the ones in Crimea were Russian soldiers, we're talking about the people in Eastern Ukraine.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Ah. My comment was aimed at this:

Meanwhile, in Crimea:
http://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/1333772-na-budivlyu-medzhlisu-povernuli-ukrayinskiy-prapor

In Crimea, the Ukrainian flag keeps appearing on the Majlis building. Self Defense forces have taken it down once and broken the flag, but there's another one in it's place.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Looks like terrorists in Slavyansk got bored with the lack of anti-terrorist efforts from Ukrainian security forces and decided to abduct an American journalist to attract guys who actually know what to do with terrorists
http://mashable.com/2014/04/22/vice-journalist-captured-ukraine/

[GlyphGryph]

That vice reporter, Simon Ostrovsky, has apparently been taken hostage by a militia in Slavyansk.

Edit: FRICKIN' NINJA-ED

Because taking Isreali and American citizens hostage has never ever backfired on anyone (this guy has dual citizenship).

Edit: Actually seeing reports that they took a number of people hostage, and he's just the most notable. There's also several other reporters and a local police chief.

Meanwhile, in Horlivka, militias are apparently killing people for flying Ukrainian flags?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

What? Israeli? Ouch!
They really want to have a conversations with that units burningpet talked about.

Meanwhile, in Horlivka, militias are apparently killing people for flying Ukrainian flags?

Looks like

[Knit tie]

Now this is too idiotic a move for the Russian special forces, I bet these people are genuine "militia" radical punks.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

My IMO:

I don't think that those guys have good centralized command. Russian spec ops are likely there but they can't be anywhere and need to hide from journalists. Their role is not command those badly disciplined radical punks but supply militias with weapons and disrupt Ukrainian efforts to counter insurgency

Goal of Russians is to destabilize situation so it will go in chaos, not form a people army that will go and capture Kyiv. It is impossible even against nearly dead Ukrainian army. Their goal is to create an excuse for Russian troops to move in. They need few hundreds, better few thousands of corpses

[Knit tie]

My IMO:

I don't think that those guys have good centralized command. Russian spec ops are likely there but they can't be anywhere and need to hide from journalists. Their role is not command those badly disciplined radical punks but supply militias with weapons and disrupt Ukrainian efforts to counter insurgency

Goal of Russians is to destabilize situation so it will go in chaos, not form a people army that will go and capture Kyiv. It is impossible even against nearly dead Ukrainian army. Their goal is to create an excuse for Russian troops to move in. They need few hundreds, better few thousands of corpses

I agree.

[Sean Mirrsen]

My IMO:

I don't think that those guys have good centralized command. Russian spec ops are likely there but they can't be anywhere and need to hide from journalists. Their role is not command those badly disciplined radical punks but supply militias with weapons and disrupt Ukrainian efforts to counter insurgency

Goal of Russians is to destabilize situation so it will go in chaos, not form a people army that will go and capture Kyiv. It is impossible even against nearly dead Ukrainian army. Their goal is to create an excuse for Russian troops to move in. They need few hundreds, better few thousands of corpses

I suppose it's fruitless to point out that the whole point, as far as PR goes, of Russia intervening on Crimea was to avoid the hundreds/thousands of corpses. Pretty much the best thing Russia can do now, politically, is hang back. Because the situation will devolve into chaos, allowing Russia to effectively say "and this is what we were trying to prevent". Won't do any miracles for PR, but will strengthen public disdain for the West, as the reason for why another intervention was impossible.

[Knit tie]

I honestly have no idea what Putin will do next.

[Sean Mirrsen]

I honestly have no idea what Putin will do next.

I believe this is, and was, true for all of us ever since this whole thing began. And probably unlikely to change in the near future.

[mainiac]

Now this is too idiotic a move for the Russian special forces, I bet these people are genuine "militia" radical punks.

May I ask why you place such faith in Russian special forces?

We know that Russian special forces gets tripped up.  We know that any other countries special forces gets tripped up.  And Spetznaz is not oriented towards missions like this.  Unlike the US they don't have a large enough military budget to sustain independent special forces branches oriented towards pro-insurgency operations along with counter insurgency, covert operations, etc.

A civilian with a cellphone was able to get evidence of special forces operating in Ukraine.  Maybe she was secretly a CIA deep cover agent using mind control techniques or something but I doubt that.  More realistically is that we need to drop the silly assumption that Spetznatz is automatically awesome at everything.  They're human and they slip up like anyone else.

I honestly have no idea what Putin will do next.

I believe this is, and was, true for all of us ever since this whole thing began. And probably unlikely to change in the near future.

Actually the prediction I made when Russia first moved into Crimea still looks good to me.  I predicted small clashes and fewer then 1000 casualties, economic backlash for Russia and Ukraine not losing anymore territory.  I will say I'm surprised by how long Putin is willing to drag this out but I'll stand by my conclusion that an escalation isn't in the card at this time.  Putin was making a penny-ante gamble that stirring up trouble in Eastern Ukraine might lead to something but that hasn't played out.  Now that Ukraine has provided solid evidence to the UN that Russian special forces is operating in Ukraine I would place a lower probability on Russia taking more Ukrainian territory then in Ukraine regaining Crimea.

Russia had an opportunity due to uncertainty and chaos.  That's gone now.  The level of fighting that's going on right now wouldn't even be international news if it weren't for the recent Crimean incursion.