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[miljan]

Why do you hope that China, India and Japan will not join sanctions against Russia?

You mash up together BRIC countries and G7 country.
Japan will obviously join, while China and India will not. And anyways, it's all about $$

Fixed

It is about $$$. Don't you think that China may get some benefits from Russian isolation and possible collapse? Especially if the West will manage to offer something to compensate the short time losses.  Extreme case - USA will reduce support of Independent Taiwan

Actually, china will get benefit already, as russia is searching for bigger market in the asia and will probably sell gas to them on wery low price. So yes, there will be benefit for china.

[smirk]

Why do you hope that China, India and Japan will not join sanctions against Russia?

You mash up together BRIC countries and G7 country.
Japan will obviously join, while China and India will not. And anyways, it's all about $$

Fixed

It is about $$$. Don't you think that China may get some benefits from Russian isolation and possible collapse? Especially if the West will manage to offer something to compensate the short time losses.  Extreme case - USA will reduce support of Independent Taiwan

Nah, China would be worse off if Russia collapsed. They wouldn't want that much destabilisation right next door. Redking has a point about China's policy of non-interference in internal affairs, but we might yet see them be mildly supportive of Russia if the rest of the world steps up on sanctions.


In regards to Ukraine's non-proliferation treaty: If Russia has already declared they're not bound by that treaty because Ukraine's new government is not legitimate, then that puts the Kremlin on much shakier ground asking for that 11bn in back gas payment, doesn't it? Since they won't officially recognize the entity they're requesting it from.

[gogis]

Why do you hope that China, India and Japan will not join sanctions against Russia?

You mash up together BRIC countries and G7 country.
Japan will obviously join, while China and India will not. And anyways, it's all about $$

Fixed

See, thats the reason why discussing anything with you is pointless. You just can't say anything credible without a bit of snide remark.

It is about $$$. Don't you think that China may get some benefits from Russian isolation and possible collapse? Especially if the West will manage to offer something to compensate the short time losses.  Extreme case - USA will reduce support of Independent Taiwan

There is not going to be any isolation or collapse no matter how hard you want it. We live in the world of global economics where to cut country NK style require this country leader to be batshit insane, which is not the case with Putin, no matter how your clouded mind think he is. No trade with g87? Fine, there is countless trade partners to be find.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

We live in the world of global economics where to cut country NK style require this country leader to be batshit insane, which is not the case with Putin

Sanity or insanity of a leader means little. Few considered Saddam sane even before Kuwait annexation but only after that annexation Iraq got retaliation from the world

You see, one can't ignore all laws and practices of international community as easily as get away with murdering your own population.

Steps like "nationalization" of Ukrainian Navy are absurd and don't fit any legal norms. Even if each and every sailor willingly switched sides vessels are still property of Ukraine.

[smjjames]

Doesn't china import a good deal of oil and gas from russia anyway? I don't know the percentage, but I'm sure it's a significant amount for them to not want to cut off supply from russia.

[10ebbor10]

Doesn't china import a good deal of oil and gas from russia anyway? I don't know the percentage, but I'm sure it's a significant amount for them to not want to cut off supply from russia.

It certainly isn't bigger than the European reliance, so ...

[gogis]

We live in the world of global economics where to cut country NK style require this country leader to be batshit insane, which is not the case with Putin

Sanity or insanity of a leader means little. Few considered Saddam sane even before Kuwait annexation but only after that annexation Iraq got retaliation from the world

You see, one can't ignore all laws and practices of international community as easily as get away with murdering your own population.

Steps like "nationalization" of Ukrainian Navy are absurd and don't fit any legal norms. Even if each and every sailor willingly switched sides vessels are still property of Ukraine.

Why you keep strawmanning everything I wrote? I was talking about very different subject. Should you now attack "different" bit of my answer or some other words? What kind of rhetoric you was taught? It's sickening.

[RedKing]

Doesn't china import a good deal of oil and gas from russia anyway? I don't know the percentage, but I'm sure it's a significant amount for them to not want to cut off supply from russia.

They do, but gas (~5%) and even oil (~20%) are minute portions of their energy profile compared to coal (~70%). Of course, Beijing is also trying to move the country steadily away from coal because they realize the long-term environmental damage that's accruing. Beijing is becoming downright unlivable because of it.

And actually no, China doesn't get much if any gas from Russia. They tried to, starting in the early 1990s but eventually gave up and turned to the 'Stans like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. And they're also importing from Myanmar now.

China is also the world's 3rd largest natural gas producer. It's just that their energy demand is becoming so voracious that there's no hope they'll be a net exporter anytime soon.

[gogis]

Doesn't china import a good deal of oil and gas from russia anyway? I don't know the percentage, but I'm sure it's a significant amount for them to not want to cut off supply from russia.

It certainly isn't bigger than the European reliance, so ...

It is certainly not, currently. Reason is previously Russia was trying to strengthen EU ties. It can change, mind you. And China is in evergrowing demand of energy products.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Why do you hope that China, India and Japan will not join sanctions against Russia?

You mash up together BRIC countries and G7 country.
Japan will obviously join, while China and India will not. And anyways, it's all about $$

Fixed

It is about $$$. Don't you think that China may get some benefits from Russian isolation and possible collapse? Especially if the West will manage to offer something to compensate the short time losses.  Extreme case - USA will reduce support of Independent Taiwan

Nah, China would be worse off if Russia collapsed. They wouldn't want that much destabilisation right next door. Redking has a point about China's policy of non-interference in internal affairs, but we might yet see them be mildly supportive of Russia if the rest of the world steps up on sanctions.


In regards to Ukraine's non-proliferation treaty: If Russia has already declared they're not bound by that treaty because Ukraine's new government is not legitimate, then that puts the Kremlin on much shakier ground asking for that 11bn in back gas payment, doesn't it? Since they won't officially recognize the entity they're requesting it from.

That's what I was thinking. Claiming that previous treaties don't apply and then calling on an old treaty? Are they just /trying/ to add insult to injury?

Yeah, China has more interest in keeping Russia around to both distract & check the west & it's influence. Not that they want Russia to be particularly strong either though.


Looks like all the progress in Russia/west relations have gone out the door.

[mainiac]

Actually, china will get benefit already, as russia is searching for bigger market in the asia and will probably sell gas to them on wery low price. So yes, there will be benefit for china.

Russia can't sell to China unless they build pipelines to China and pipelines are very expensive and slow to build.  They can't ship by sea because the distances is too big for them to undercut China's logistically closer suppliers.

They could do some shipment by rail but IIRC that's still a pretty expensive option and certainly one which doesn't scale well (lack of rolling stock and limited rail capacity.)

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Doesn't china import a good deal of oil and gas from russia anyway? I don't know the percentage, but I'm sure it's a significant amount for them to not want to cut off supply from russia.

It certainly isn't bigger than the European reliance, so ...

It is certainly not, currently. Reason is previously Russia was trying to strengthen EU ties. It can change, mind you. And China is in evergrowing demand of energy products.

Question is not only "will China buy Russian hydrocarbons?" but also "what price China is ready to pay?"
Selling for lower price is still lost money. Especially when you need to build an infrastructure to start selling

But even if EU will not introduce any actions(most likely) it will become more active reducing reliance on Russia. Still a long term loss for Russia.

[gogis]

That's what I was thinking. Claiming that previous treaties don't apply and then calling on an old treaty? Are they just /trying/ to add insult to injury?

Yeah, China has more interest in keeping Russia around to both distract & check the west & it's influence. Not that they want Russia to be particularly strong either though.

Looks like all the progress in Russia/west relations have gone out the door.

Russian
http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/03/21/5958825.shtml

Related bit.
Дело в том, что договор подразумевал продление срока пребывания Черноморского флота в акватории Крыма лишь с 2017 года (до этого времени действовал старый договор), а скидку Украина получила уже в 2010 году, то есть авансом. Все это время «Газпром» фактически дотировал «Нафтогаз Украины». Однако после того, как Крым перешел под юрисдикцию России, продление пребывания Черноморского флота потеряло смысл, а цена на газ уже четыре года как была снижена. То есть Россия предоставила льготу, не получив ничего взамен.

In short words.
New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?

[GrizzlyAdamz]

No, 'old' Ukraine got that money. And had the treaty with your country that said your country wouldn't attack them. 'New' Ukraine, the one your gov doesn't recognize, doesn't owe jack shit unless Putin/Russia admits they broke their treaty & knuckles down for the just consequences.
So long as 'New' Ukraine is a separate entity, that money is out of legal reach.

Unless there's some clause in international law that makes new govs inherit old debts but not old treaties?

[da_nang]

Related news:

Apparently, activists in St. Petersburg have petitioned for a referendum regarding the secession of the city from Russia.