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Author Topic: Space Thread  (Read 366911 times)

Culise

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1005 on: August 11, 2015, 09:04:06 pm »

Point, though that's obviously something that is actively transmitting in the radio band right at you, and not taking any real steps to avoid detection at all (in fact it's actively trying to get your attention). There's plenty of countermeasures an attacker could take that would make detecting them more difficult, such as any combinations of:
1) Only burning far away, and then "coasting" the rest of the distance.
2) Using vacuum insulation between an inner and outer hull, and then coating the outer hull with an extremely cold substance after any burns to reduce thermal profiles.
3) Approaching from the other side or next to a warmer thermal body, such as a planet, thus letting its heat signature drown out your own.
4) Approaching from the direction of a more active background area, such as along the milky way, thus lowering the difference between your own thermal output and theirs.
5) If you do have to do a burn that is close enough to be easily detected, launch a handful of decoys in different directions that are hotter but smaller, then have both you and the decoys "go dark" by cooling their outer hull. The end result would make it very difficult to tell which direction you went in.

To build off the black plane, I'd say it's more of a matter of two people in a black plane with a background that is constantly twinkling slightly, with a few very bright lights scattered about, and with lamps that are only really visible when they are "pushing" and the rest of the time are basically invisible; still possible to track someone down in, but much more difficult.
Hee.  That is a point, but bear in mind that said 20W radio signal is even smaller than the thermal radiation that would be output by the ship itself, much less any modern or probable near-future maneuvering system.  As for the proposed countermeasures:
1. Burn-and-cruise is viable if your operational planning is on the level of months or years, and your target has no "meteor watch" instituted to deal with more mundane unpowered threats like incoming asteroids.  It will need to be implemented at tremendous distances - a significant part of the problem is that any burns, either to maneuver or accelerate/decelerate, will tend to be seen from tremendous distances, on the order of hundreds of astronomical units.  Burns powerful enough to cut that time down will also be much easier to detect.  Even if you ignore the detection issue, this is potentially highly dangerous if the situation changes at all over the course of those months or years, however, say if military forces get redeployed or if there was even a minute imperfection in one of your ship's thrust nozzles - remember, at these distances, differences of a fraction of a percent point between vectors will translate to at least tens of thousands of kilometers.  If you're targeting a mobile force (say, an enemy fleet), that won't work at all, unless it's willing to politely wait there for a tremendous period of time for your arrival. 

2. The entire problem with thermal detection at a distance is the thermal energy being radiated through the radiation from the ship to the detector - the detection problem for a ship with no constructed shell can also be treated literally as a ship with a shell the distance between the detector and the ship.  Your shell will catch all of that thermal radiation (plus whatever is conducted through the support beams, since that will be non-zero), certainly, but that will just heat it up to the same temperature over time.  If you build your shell large enough so that it won't heat up quickly (since the rate of thermal exchange is proportional to the ratio between the surface area of the outer and inner shells), you start to risk occluding entire stars - someone's going to notice if Polaris suddenly blinks in and out.  If you have a magic coolant that you can apply without generating more thermal energy, why not apply it directly to the ship?  How do you keep it from heating up as well just from regular shipboard operations, even ignoring the additional thermal pressure of burns? 

3. That requires a warm thermal body that will take you from your launch point to your target.  At interplanetary distances, planets don't typically move that way, and you'll have to be very, very lucky with asteroids.  That's a viable tactic, but only at very, very close scales - say, if you're fighting in LEO, where you're using the Earth itself as an occluding object. 

4. Also possible, but you need a backdrop that's literally hundreds of Kelvin hotter than the cosmic background radiation, which means it's going to need to be hot enough and/or close enough that the inverse-square law hasn't frittered all that away - say, heading from the Sun to Mercury, but not so much from the Sun to Jupiter.  It also runs into the same problem as the (unmentioned, but related) idea of radiating your heat away from the target - it only works if your target is the only detecting source.  If they have even two detection platforms separated by a significant distance, you'll need a backdrop that can hide you from both.  (EDIT: Also, don't forget (like I almost did) that energy is conserved.  If your backdrop is around as hot as you are or hotter, your ship is also going to be absorbing and reemitting thermal energy from the backdrop as well, driving its own temperature up even further.  You can reduce the difference, but it's questionable whether you can reduce it enough.)

5. If the decoys are smaller and hotter, they'll immediately be able to tell the difference from the thermal difference between the source and the decoys.  If they're smaller and just as hot, they'll see the acceleration curves are different (remember acceleration is force over mass).  If they're the same mass and the same thrust, why not just use more ships? 

No twinkling lights here, sorry, and the only bright lights that won't be well-known are likely to be other people.  Which, mind you, is a fair notion of subterfuge, if you can make your warships look like freighters from their mass/acceleration profiles. 

I had a crazy idea and I want to know if it's crazy like a fox or just crazy.  I'm thinking about airbraking spaceships without exiting them from orbit.  The breaking length of quality fishing line is 350 km while LEO "starts" around 120 km.  So I'm thinking, would it be possible to equip a spacecraft with a "kite" that would reach down to the upper atmosphere on a 300 km tether?  That way you could slow down for a stable orbit or an orbital rendezvous without expending fuel.

Suppose the kite was at 50km in height.  The atmosphere at that level is 10^-6 g/cm^3.  If the kite was moving at 10km/s (the speed of the Apollo 8 Trans-lunar injection departure), it would be creating 100 kN of drag per square meter of kite area, at least at first.  That is the same as the rocket thrust for the Apollo 8 injection burn.  But it would actually be a pretty small burden for the tether, most of the tether burden is the tether weight itself.

A complication would be that the kite moving at supersonic speeds would have all kinds of crazy aerodynamics to worry about.  But maybe those crazy aerodynamics could be put to some use.  The kite would be creating a pocket of pressurized air so maybe some of that air could be siphoned up the tether.  This way there would be a source of volatiles for the spacecraft.  With an ion engine it might even be possible to refull your tanks with nitrogen at earth by braking, go fly off to a different planet and then slingshot back to earth again to repeat the process.

So... crazy like a fox or just crazy?
Not crazy at all, and you don't need a kite.  If designed properly, the ship itself can be used to aerobrake, as several probes we've launched (Magellan, multiple Mars probes) have done.  ^_^

EDIT: Here, if you're curious.  What you're describing is likely a variation on the trailing ballute design they outline.  ^_^
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 09:15:15 pm by Culise »
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1006 on: August 11, 2015, 09:28:08 pm »

Yeah but that requires you fire an engine in the orbit after the airbreak and requires you to fire an engine if you want any control.  What if you are talking about a spacecraft with no rockets, only ion engines?
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i2amroy

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1007 on: August 11, 2015, 09:36:21 pm »

-snip-
A couple of things to keep in mind:
1) I'm not sure where you are getting that breaking length. Is that just under it's own weight, or what? The amount of force you are applying is almost certainly going to be the dominating force in that arrangement, not the length of the cable.
2) Orbits of long tethers get crazy really fast due to tidal forces, you can even end up with strange things like square orbits, so you'd need to release the tether when you are done.
3) Rotational forces. Imagine you have giant wedding cake stacked on a trolley that is rolling along the ground extremely quickly. You stick your foot right in front of the wheels and stop them from rolling. What happens to the cake? (If you answered, "it swings in an arc and slams into the ground, usually with the rotational forces of its arc ripping it into a couple of pieces as it falls", then you are correct!)

Not saying that the idea in untenable, just that it's got some severe engineering issues that you are going to need to address before it would work. (Alternatively you could just do it with your actual spacecraft itself rather than a tethered kite, which would address all of those issues and replace them with much smaller ones, mostly involving the need for very specific data :P).

-snip-
Fair enough. I guess it all kinda amplifies my original point, which is that spaceship v. spaceship combat is kinda untenable. If they can see you coming from weeks away it's just a simple matter of burning to avoid them, and assuming both spaceships have enough fuel the cost for them to continually adjust to match your course changes is going to cost them more in fuel costs than whatever they hoped to take from you.

As for spaceship v. planet, thinking about it it seems we reach a situation of "ultimate defense" with detection that well and a lack of FTL travel (which opens things up again), where it becomes impossible for attackers to ever actually assault a planet because defenders have plenty of time to chart their course and launch many interception attempts to destroy them long before they ever get close enough to actually do any damage. The one exception to this, of course, remains an attacker going total exterminatus mode, which, though it would take several years after launching before it actually hit, would be completely unable to be defended against. If you get a large enough object moving fast enough then it doesn't really matter what kind of defense you put up, since it'll have enough force just to punch right through whatever you do (and most real designs would involve exploding your missile after you got it up to speed, which would mean that instead of just having to knock 1 big rock out of the road they would have to stop hundreds of thousands of smaller rocks, making it even more difficult to stop and increasing it's destructive power).

So without FTL travel the win/lose diagram looks something like this:
Attacker uses infiltration or spies to disable the entire planet for weeks or months as their armies approach:
Attacker potentially wins, depending if they can hold the system offline for long enough.
Attack uses exterminatus-style methods:
Attacker always wins, but loses access to the planet for years until it cools down to livable temperatures.
Else:
Defender wins.
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1008 on: August 11, 2015, 09:45:19 pm »

Not sure I follow the unstoppable extermination attack logic.  It would take a truly absurd amount of energy to reach speeds that light doesn't give good early detection at.  There is a narrow band of attack sources that telescopes need to watch if you are building up to those sorts of speeds.  So detection years in advance is a given unless you are within a solar system.  Once detected the defenders just need to crash a counter projectile into the projectile to make it miss the solar system.  Correcting the course of the projectile after its deflected would require more energy then the original deflection (due to needing to get the course just right).  But for the attacker, that energy needs to be in the original projectile and needs to be brought up to extermination speed so it's a huge investment ahead of time.  The defender on the other hand knows exactly how much deflection energy they need and just need to get it to an intercept speed.  So the defender has a task that is orders of magnitude easier.
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1009 on: August 11, 2015, 09:49:57 pm »

1) I'm not sure where you are getting that breaking length. Is that just under it's own weight, or what? The amount of force you are applying is almost certainly going to be the dominating force in that arrangement, not the length of the cable.

That is the amount maximum length of itself that it could support hanging straight down in a 1G constant field.  I think it's constant diameter.

If the force of the drag is greater then the tensile weight force that's a good thing!  It means the design is effective in that regard since it's mostly doing what I want (dragging) rather then dealing with material requirements.

2) Orbits of long tethers get crazy really fast due to tidal forces, you can even end up with strange things like square orbits, so you'd need to release the tether when you are done.

Is there a link I could read about that?  I would think that because the tether can be kept taut at a desired angle (within limits) by angling the kite and controlling the retraction speed, you would be able to retract it in a managable fashion without messing anything up too much.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 10:01:39 pm by mainiac »
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i2amroy

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1010 on: August 11, 2015, 10:05:15 pm »

That's the point of detonating the "missile" once it start to get closer. A cloud of 1 million 1lb rocks will still impact with the exact same amount of energy as a single 1 million lb rock will, but if I'm shooting a cloud of objects at you then you can't just do the "take a second rock and hit the first rock" plan, you've got to take a giant net that is still strong enough to "catch" all of those various small rocks, has enough momentum that the impacts with the first of the rock cloud don't mess up its ability to hit the rocks on the other side of the cloud, and still has enough force to deflect far-side rock paths enough so that they don't impact the planet.

And if you wanted to make it even more complicated, you could do several different "fracture" detonations as the missile approached the target. Each one could drastically change the shape and size of the cloud as you went along, making it even more difficult for the defenders to ensure that their sideways "net swipe" will be in the right place at the right time to catch the cloud. At a certain level of complexity chaos theory ensures that there's no "plot the course of each individual 1 lb rock, then block it" plan possible, and the amounts of energy required to block the entire cloud quickly soars up to near the absurd amount of energy it took to get the cloud in motion in the first place, or even more.

So yeah, you'd know the strike was coming years or even decades before it actually hit. But assuming the attacker is willing to pour enough energy into the weapon then there isn't really anything you can do about stopping it (unless you can move your entire planet's orbit at will, which could allow you to dodge the strike, of course).

Is there a link I could read about that?  I would think that because the tether can be kept taut at a desired angle (within limits) by angling the kite and controlling the retraction speed, you would be able to retract it in a managable fashion without messing anything up too much.
Here you go: Ultra Long Orbital Tethers Behave Highly Non-Keplerian and Unstable.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 10:07:28 pm by i2amroy »
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1011 on: August 11, 2015, 10:19:01 pm »

A cloud of 1 million 1lb rocks would still be affected by gravity, no?  If they are in such a narrow volume that they are going to hit the far away planet then detonating them hardly affects a thing given a reasonable intercept distance.  In fact it makes the defenders job easy, they just have to put a tiny mass in the path of the cloud so that it alters the course of it's center of gravity.  The cloud is already detonated so it cant correct.

A cloud doesn't really matter until you are within a few hundred thousand kilometers.  The defenders are going to react months before that at a minimum.  Deflecting it at the last second would be vastly more difficult.

Also, 1 million 1lb rocks is way too little unless you are talking absurd speeds.  That's only 1000 tons, a noticable asteroid in 1 chunk but nothing but a pretty meteor shower if you are spreading it out over half the planet, that is, if it would even be visable.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 10:26:20 pm by mainiac »
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wierd

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1012 on: August 11, 2015, 10:36:02 pm »

Not sure I follow the unstoppable extermination attack logic.  It would take a truly absurd amount of energy to reach speeds that light doesn't give good early detection at.  There is a narrow band of attack sources that telescopes need to watch if you are building up to those sorts of speeds.  So detection years in advance is a given unless you are within a solar system.  Once detected the defenders just need to crash a counter projectile into the projectile to make it miss the solar system.  Correcting the course of the projectile after its deflected would require more energy then the original deflection (due to needing to get the course just right).  But for the attacker, that energy needs to be in the original projectile and needs to be brought up to extermination speed so it's a huge investment ahead of time.  The defender on the other hand knows exactly how much deflection energy they need and just need to get it to an intercept speed.  So the defender has a task that is orders of magnitude easier.

That precludes Kardishev class II civilizations that can harness the full power of a star.  An aimed gamma ray burst travels at light speed, and will EASILY bypass even a very thick atmosphere.
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1013 on: August 11, 2015, 10:46:13 pm »

Removing the object does simplify things quite a bit.  Still, there is a rather tiny fraction of the sky that you need to defend yourself from.
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wierd

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1014 on: August 11, 2015, 11:09:43 pm »

Devil's advocate: Black hole as super weapon.

One potential source of gamma ray bursts is the emission jet from a black hole.  If we assume a Kardashev class II+ (not class III, just II+) civilization that loves doing astro-engineering, we could say they have captured one of the many smaller (say, 20 solar masses or so) black holes floating around the galaxy, and have altered its net rotation so that it precessess wildly. With the kinds of rotational velocities that black holes have, this means that within any given day, the "barrel" of the "gun" would have swept over the entire galaxy several times over. This makes aiming the gun unnecessary-- You just time the shot.

You "fire" the cannon by feeding it a small star. Perhaps a captured neutron star.   This civilization would only require ONE such black hole gun. With it, it could reasonably exterminate any competing species within at most, a few thousand years after discovery.  The downside is that the black hole gun would fire from both rotational poles of the black hole simultaneously. They would need to have some kind of seriously absurd deflector to prevent nuking a section of space that was not intended to be nuked. (Perhaps the mass they would use to fire the next shot? Say, another neutron star very close to the jet?)

The existence of such a species would neatly explain Fermi's paradox.
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Culise

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1015 on: August 11, 2015, 11:18:32 pm »

Devil's advocate: Black hole as super weapon.

One potential source of gamma ray bursts is the emission jet from a black hole.  If we assume a Kardashev class II+ (not class III, just II+) civilization that loves doing astro-engineering, we could say they have captured one of the many smaller (say, 20 solar masses or so) black holes floating around the galaxy, and have altered its net rotation so that it precessess wildly. With the kinds of rotational velocities that black holes have, this means that within any given day, the "barrel" of the "gun" would have swept over the entire galaxy several times over. This makes aiming the gun unnecessary-- You just time the shot.

You "fire" the cannon by feeding it a small star. Perhaps a captured neutron star.   This civilization would only require ONE such black hole gun. With it, it could reasonably exterminate any competing species within at most, a few thousand years after discovery.  The downside is that the black hole gun would fire from both rotational poles of the black hole simultaneously. They would need to have some kind of seriously absurd deflector to prevent nuking a section of space that was not intended to be nuked. (Perhaps the mass they would use to fire the next shot? Say, another neutron star very close to the jet?)

The existence of such a species would neatly explain Fermi's paradox.
Alternately, they just let it shoot without bothering with shielding because on the balance of probability, the odds of a line intersecting the black hole, the target star, and an unanticipated extra target within range of the gamma ray burst (that is, in the same galaxy as a baseline, depending on how much you're feeding the black hole) are quite insignificant.  Plus, if you're already conducting stellar engineering to facilitate the mass-extermination of all alien life in an entire galaxy, you may well simply consider any such impact a bonus, sort of an "exterminate one species, kill another free" deal. 

You'll probably want at least two to cover gaps in your firing solutions, though, if only because the galactic core is going to play havoc with a decent percent of any of your shots. 
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 11:21:04 pm by Culise »
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wierd

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1016 on: August 11, 2015, 11:39:42 pm »

The most you would ever need is 3 black hole guns, at 60 degree cones from each other, with Sagitarius A (the center of our galaxy) at the center of these cones.

That means that any point in the galaxy could be shot at with at least 2 of the guns, and in such a fashion that the galactic core would not present a significant anomaly to having a firing solution.

It WOULD however, require some kind of FTL communication to coordinate that kind of system.
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mainiac

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1017 on: August 12, 2015, 06:22:52 am »

It also kills a rather tiny slice of a civilization for the effort gone to.
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wierd

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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1018 on: August 12, 2015, 10:12:18 am »

Not with a rotational speed like I mentioned. The beam will sweep before it extinguishes. Since nearly all of the civilization will be more or less in the plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy, the precession of the blackhole should be able to beam the deadly pulse over a few hundred light years easily before the black hole finishes its meal.

If coordinated with another cannon, even a very wide spread civilization could be irradiated.

The idea here is to kill the other civilization before it becomes interplanetary. They monitor for radio transmissions, and expect that within 400 years of early radio broadcasts, that they will be beginning space travel, but not have created interstellar, let alone good interplanetary travel.  They use FTL communication, and possibly scout/monitor satelites to detect such civilizations-- when they detect one, they prime the cannons, wait for the right moment, then give it something to eat.  at most 1000 years later or so-- the beam intersects that region of space.  Remember, such a new rival civ would not have FTL or anything like it, and would be constrained to sub C velocities of travel. That means taking hundreds if not thousands of years to reach the nearest stars to their home system. The class II+ civ may have a monopoly on interstellar traval, and want to keep it that way.

This means that if they nuke early, and often-- they dont NEED to nuke large areas.
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Re: Space Thread
« Reply #1019 on: August 12, 2015, 10:27:31 am »

When I say shielding I don't directly mean an invisible shield around the ship (though that is part of it) I also mean the materials put on the outside of the hull of the ship to protect from damage.

So another question, would a highly reflective material painted onto the hull of the ship be enough to stop a high energy laser from causing any damage to the ship?

Also the cause for war is probably going to be a mix of religion and racism. Just because there is enough space to avoid people doesn't mean everyone wants to.

Also with resources what if it's not a naturaly occurring (as in mineral or ore and the like) but something produced by living creatures? Would that be a resource that could be considered rare in this setting? (This is assuming the people who control it aren't showing how they are getting the resource sorta like how the Chinese kept how silk was made a secret).
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