Vote StoriesI take it that people's suspects are NQT or Tiruin or Imp. (Persus and Toaster think it could be me or Tiruin, Tiruin thinks it's Imp or me, Imp thinks it's definitely me and I think it's either Tiruin or Imp).
Well, what are each player's vote-story? What did they do with their vote each day?
Imp's Vote Story
Day 1, Imp doesn't place a vote until right at the very end. I pressed her on this:
Imp you going to place vote?
Then she arrived and tied the vote with a vote on Nerjin, tying it with Cmega. Nerjin, because he believes in lynching every day to the point of self-sacrifice even-as-town
unvoted Cmega to avoid a tie.
Day 2, again Imp doesn't do anything with her vote. Interestingly, when the forum was down for the day and the day
would have ended, if Meph hadn't have extended, Caz would have died with Persus, Tiruin, Toaster and NQT on his lynch.
Again I pressed Imp on her lack of voting:
Imp - Has yet to press a lynch case as we're nearing the end of the day despite being generally active
And she finally voted for Caz when her vote would have no impact and there was no possibility of lynching anyone else.
Day 3, Imp claims Max is lying about being a seer, creating distance between the two of them but she doesn't vote Max at this stage. No, she says this:
about Max White:
He has claimed to inspect notquitethere and get benign, to inspect Persus13 and get malevolent.
Notquitethere has opened the day with a vote on Max White, for reasons he stated near the end of D2.
If we lynch Persus13 D3 and get a Town result, then we obviously lynch Max D4 - I assume we get a Scum result?
Then we decide if we want to lynch notquitethere or not. It's already D5 at that point.
We had two night kills last night. Neither are kills of high powered active people. Is there any chance we're dealing with a conversion cult? I... I don't think so. But just in case, I lean towards lynching notquitethere first at this point. There's something -weird- about this set up and especially weird about notquitethere's behavior. I'm going to think more about it and I'm talking about it so everyone else can think about it too. I don't think notquitethere 'usually' makes this many contradictions in his play and I'm burning my mind trying to understand why he is now.
So, rather than kill Max or even Persus she thinks that they should lynch... NQT! She labels her section 'about Max' but really it's all about killing NQT. But she doesn't vote yet.
No... Toony and Jim vote for Max, making it NQT-Toony-Jim on Max and only Max on Persus. The chances of a Max lynch look increasingly certain, and Imp
redoubles her efforts to get NQT lynched instead, before eventually voting Max when it looked like a certain thing, all the while saying:
That said, I bet most all of you still want Max White lynched first. I'm willing - but I'm serious about being scared about it. If NQT -is- a converter - we're probably in deep trouble if we don't kill him first. So I'll support the Max White lynch, totally - but I'll switch faster than fast to NQT if people agree he's the better D3 lynch - if we have a converter, we have NO time to waste. If we don't have a converter, order doesn't matter at all.
NQT's Vote Story
Day 1, NQT puts an RVS on Caz, a pressure vote on Persus for appearing to ignore a question and then places a vote on Nerjin for his lack of scum hunting and not engaging with all the players. 6.5 hours before the lynch there's a tie between Nerjin and Cmega. NQT has a last post where he considers breaking the tie but doesn't (I think I went to the pub with my girlfriend at this stage). Nerjin, unsurprisingly, breaks the tie. (Then Imp ties it again, Nerjin unvotes to break the tie then Jim votes Nerjin for unvoting.)
Day 2, NQT claims priest and full responsibility for Nerjin's resurrection. His first vote is on Jim for saying something that appeared anti-town (I'm still not convinced that Vigilante is a pro-town role), then he unvotes admitting he wants to do proper analysis:
I want to give the game the game a proper look over before I push a Day 2 case in earnest, so unvote for now, but I might be back.
And when he comes back with his analysis, he concludes that Caz is scum:
Max and Caz did well on the questioning test but have only pressed one lynch case on one person in the entire game. This clear lack of genuine suspicion and reluctance to draw negative attention is not a town trait.
Caz's day end lynch vote on Nerjin was an RVS vote!
And this vote almost leads to Caz getting lynched on day 2. Here's the vote count immediately before:
The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Caz: Toaster, Tiruin
Toaster: Persus13
notquitethere: Jim Groovester, Max White
Persus13: Caz
Tiruin: ToonyMan
Day has been Extended to ~5pm Pacific Friday. There will be no more extensions this day.
NQT then breaks the tie between Caz and NQT by voting Caz in the early hours of the day of deadline. Due to the forum being down, Meph extends the day and NQT later votes Jim as the latter appeared to have lied. Caz ends up lynched anyway.
Day 3, NQT votes Max in the first post of the day. Max retaliates by fakeclaiming seer and claiming he'd got a good inspect on NQT. After Max's lynch is a sure thing, NQT has second doubts and can't see how Max could be rationally claiming so he votes for Imp, but then Imp persuades him that she couldn't be rationally fakeclaiming so he goes to Persus. At no point when switching was it ever likely that anyone other than Max was going to be lynched.
Tiruin's Vote StoryDay 1, Tiruin votes Caz for his superficial scumhunting. She continues this vote, continuing to press Caz until she votes for Cmega after the latter places a vote on Max.
Cmega3Max white, could you please calm down a bit?
You are acting rather weird.
I'd implore you to address quite much everything directed to you as of late, because its pretty...curious how you've been acting.
Tiruin tilts her hat 45 degrees to the right and looks directly at you.
What's up, son? What do you understand about Mafia?
At this stage of the game, the vote was tied between Max and NQT, and she switches her one vote on Caz to a one vote Cmega (though it's unclear why when her Caz suspicions seemed stronger). Later other people vote Cmega and he almost gets lynched.
Day 2, Tiruin returns to her original suspect, Caz, who she votes in her first post of the game (after Toaster had already voted for Caz). It's unclear why she didn't return to Cmega but perhaps she addressed this at the time. She then keeps her vote on Caz for the entirety of the day until Caz is lynched. Cmega was absent for almost the entirety of the game.
Day 3, Tiruin pushes for a mass claim and is the last player to put a vote down, on Max when there already five votes against him.
ConclusionsAll three suspects had lynch votes on scum. Imp's vote on Caz came after his death was already certain. Her vote on Max was begrudging: she really wanted to vote NQT. NQT almost gets Caz lynched on Day 2, were it not for the forum going down. (Max also tries to get him killed D1 and 2, expending most of his posts in the game to that end), and led the lynch against Max even before he'd claimed and had that claim falsified. He does switch off the Caz and Max wagons before each day, but not without reasons. Tiruin was on Caz on Day 1 and returns to have him lynched on Day 2 (despite the fact that she would have gained little suspicion for continuing to vote Cmega on Day 2). Tiruin votes for Max on Day 3 but only when the result was already predetermined.
It seems to me that the Day 3 scum strategy was for Max to claim seer and have Persus lynched. When Persus flips town, the hunter would attack Max but it wouldn't work. Scum would kill someone else, hopefully the hunter. Day 4 would arrive with 2 scum and four town. They'd lynch Max for fakeclaiming and in the night they'd kill another town player. The 3rd scum would have previously distanced themselves heavily from Max as they know he's going to be lynched eventually. But they'd need a fall guy for the hunter to kill or town to lynch after Max's death. How would a fake seer set up a fall guy? By claiming he's innocent and trying to get him on side. In the words of Lee Harvey Oswald,
"I'm a patsy!"My lynch analysis says Tiruin is scum and it was dead on right for Max and Caz. Should I follow it to the end and vote Tiruin, or should I follow what the Vote Stories seem to be saying and push for an Imp lynch...? Right now, I'm leaning
Imp, but next I'm going to look at scum interactions with Tiruin and Imp before the end of the day tomorrow.