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Author Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over!  (Read 169435 times)

Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #645 on: November 20, 2013, 08:06:55 pm »

Okay, wow, I fail at quick reading. I could have sworn one of the Supernaturals started without a third-party role. And I missed Dariush because his role wasn't bolded. But I'm not a third party.

I'd like to hear more from Tiruin and Toaster.

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?

Yeah, I'm happy to hear more from everyone.

I -really- wanted there to have been at least one previous S game which had no third parties and I'd been pretty disappointed when I found that if we lack third parties, we're the first game yet to have not had any - That said... we're also the fewest # of starting players of any S game yet.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #646 on: November 20, 2013, 08:08:19 pm »

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?

Oh, and it can't be.  From S5 again -

Jokerman-EXE (town)
    You are an Exorcist, trained in ancient magics to drive off Demons and Devils from this world. You wander the lands, seeking out the taint of evil and banishing it back to the hells. Once during the game you may perform an Exorcism on another player during the Night. If that player is a Demon or Devil, the malevolent spirit will be banished. If they are pure, they have nothing to fear.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #647 on: November 20, 2013, 08:13:28 pm »

Yeah, but it seems like both sides were given pretty strong roles.

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?

Oh, and it can't be.  From S5 again -

Jokerman-EXE (town)
    You are an Exorcist, trained in ancient magics to drive off Demons and Devils from this world. You wander the lands, seeking out the taint of evil and banishing it back to the hells. Once during the game you may perform an Exorcism on another player during the Night. If that player is a Demon or Devil, the malevolent spirit will be banished. If they are pure, they have nothing to fear.
Then what is the new role?
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #648 on: November 20, 2013, 08:16:15 pm »

Yeah, but it seems like both sides were given pretty strong roles.

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?

Oh, and it can't be.  From S5 again -

Jokerman-EXE (town)
    You are an Exorcist, trained in ancient magics to drive off Demons and Devils from this world. You wander the lands, seeking out the taint of evil and banishing it back to the hells. Once during the game you may perform an Exorcism on another player during the Night. If that player is a Demon or Devil, the malevolent spirit will be banished. If they are pure, they have nothing to fear.
Then what is the new role?

Near as I can tell, it hasn't been flipped yet.  Since everyone's role claimed, someone's lying, or -possibly- Meph misread the past games.  We're probably going to have to wait to find out - but you can ask Meph to clarify if you want to.  I'm in 'patience mode/watching mode' myself right now, and am not tempted to ask.
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Toaster

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #649 on: November 20, 2013, 10:01:20 pm »

The fact that Max made a potentially suicidal fakeclaim is very strong evidence that there is one more cultist out there.


Let's go through every player, role and alignment checking, and I'll do my best to be impartial to my own position.  Role first.

Imp:  Claimed Fortune Teller.  Got correct role result on Max White.  Only likely possibilities for lying are scumbuddy of Max (which requires him bussing Max for no apparent gain) or some odd rolecopping third party.  Claim strength: 8.5/10

NQT:  Claimed Priest who ressed Nerjin.  No counterclaim.  Possibilities of lying would be scumbuddy of Caz who actually performed the res or oddball third party.  Claim strength: 7.5/10

Persus:  Claimed Knight.  Claimed to have fought off an attack N1.  Kill attempted on him claimed by Toaster.  Possibility of lying: would have to be buddies with Toaster, implying either four scum or two teams of two- both unlikely in an 11 player game.  Claim strength: 9.5/10

Tiruin:  Claimed illusionist.  Reasonable target choice, but no confirmation.  Claim strength: 4/10 due to lack of confirmation.

Toaster:  Claimed Monster Hunter.  Three kills/attempts claimed by him, with no counterclaim.  Persus, the kill attempt target, claims to have seen a human attacking him.  Kills use human-style weaponry flavor, which is consisted with Super1 vampire hunter.  Claim strength: 9.5/10


Now alignment:

Imp:  Counterclaimed a known cultist.  Would have to have undertaken a seemingly needless bus to be scum.  Cult likelihood: 2/10

NQT:  Needs further reading.  No strong evidence either way, but process of elimination pushes him down.  Cult likelihood: 6/10

Persus:  A cultist fakeclaimed to get him lynched.  Would have to be an insane bus that would result in a dead cultist either way to be cult.  Cult likelihood: 1/10

Tiruin: Also needs further reading, but was in on both cultist lynches.  Would have to be bussing a lot.  Cult likelihood: 4/10

Toaster:  Is a claimed monster hunter.  Buying that claim and yet making him cult would mean that Meph gave the scum team three players and two kills in an 11 player game.  Meph is a good mod, so this seems frankly impossible.  Cult likelihood: 0/10


Verdict:  I need to go over all of NQT and Tiruin's posts again.  I still doubt it's Imp or Persus.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #650 on: November 20, 2013, 10:49:52 pm »

Out of curiousity, is Exorcist the new role Meph mentioned?

Oh, and it can't be.  From S5 again -

Jokerman-EXE (town)
    You are an Exorcist, trained in ancient magics to drive off Demons and Devils from this world. You wander the lands, seeking out the taint of evil and banishing it back to the hells. Once during the game you may perform an Exorcism on another player during the Night. If that player is a Demon or Devil, the malevolent spirit will be banished. If they are pure, they have nothing to fear.
Eeyeah, that is what caused my confusion--it wasn't noted before, but then I didn't check that rolelist. Only when checking that rolelist did I see the Exorcist (and thus my shame).

PFP
Toaster
Quote
The fact that Max made a potentially suicidal fakeclaim is very strong evidence that there is one more cultist out there.
What makes you think there is one other out there? As in, what are your - and your own - thoughts on that matter? I'll give my reasoning, and it doesn't primarily base itself on the quoted statement here.

Quote
Tiruin:  Claimed illusionist.  Reasonable target choice, but no confirmation.  Claim strength: 4/10 due to lack of confirmation.
...*shakes fist at illusionist role*
You could at least give a 5/10 when you speak about rating me like a scoreboard.[/disappoint]
But really, I was aiming for extremes--proving one side or the other out. The fact that..neither could act and there was contrary evidence to my thoughts on the matter [ie scumkill happened either way] brings itself to the fore.

Continued query: On your advance to ToonyMan, why him instead of the ot
Toaster
Quote

N3 I didn't buy Toony's sudden switch from Max to Persus
.  Prior to NQT changing his vote, Toony was content with the Max lynch and had moved on to questioning others.  When NQT switched to Persus, though...
@Orange: What persuaded you to kill him based on this buying of actions? Is it relevant with the purple?
@Purple: ...And this caused you to kill him..why? It was scummy..how?

Buying such to save a buddy..how?

I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, so I was willing to off him.  His change seemed a bit sudden, forced, and contradictory.  Yes, the two things you colored are linked.  Since he had moved on, that signaled that he was thinking "Okay, Max is lynched.  Let's start working on the next target for the next day."  This is a reasonable and townlike behavior.  When NQT switched, though, suddenly he's waffling and going back on what he said.  This is not townlike behavior.
[/quote]This makes sense, however I've to wonder if you considered Imp's behavior (in which I've to ask what were your reads - preferably in a list - on everyone @D3) a note on NQT.

Quote
Verdict:  I need to go over all of NQT and Tiruin's posts again.  I still doubt it's Imp or Persus.
'Or'? So there are levels of suspicion on each? [ALSO IMP IS FEMALE D:<]
Point being, if we take everything at first glance, nothing points to a straight answer (we're all mentioning 'someone bussed' wherein the only notable candidate between us all for majority town-ship ness is Persus).

Quote
Kills use human-style weaponry flavor, which is consisted with Super1 vampire hunter.
Partly out of mafia context but: We're still going on this style of concluding? Nobody counterclaimed you, and by valid reasoning--you're a hunter (or someone else is hiding it but I see no reason not to claim//counterclaim at this point in time).

..Or just emphasizing yourself. Egoistical much?



PFP - Checking back.

Persus: main factor in ranking me as secondary scum is...because of my claim? As in, because of my role? Purely? Or are there minor concepts in it which make me scummy scum scum. Deviations in my explanation? Reasoning?
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #651 on: November 20, 2013, 11:00:34 pm »

You're my second scumpick because Imp and Toaster both seem strongly Town, or at least, not-scum, and NQT seems majorly scummy. Also because it would be easier to fake-claim your role, yes.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #652 on: November 20, 2013, 11:11:33 pm »

You're my second scumpick because Imp and Toaster both seem strongly Town, or at least, not-scum, and NQT seems majorly scummy. Also because it would be easier to fake-claim your role, yes.
...Yes, I get the declarative. I mean why. Any role could be fakeclaimed, and as such, I'm checking back on those posts on whether the probability of a bus is more rational or logical than not--something you don't seem to be doing.

Hence my curiosity (..also why is Toaster strongly town?)
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #653 on: November 20, 2013, 11:28:56 pm »

I said I thought Toaster wasn't scum. I believe he is some sort of killer role because of a lack of a counterclaim, and because why wouldn't he fake-claim. Some had to claim hunter, and his reasons for attacking people sound legitimate. Imp almost singlehandedly caused Max's lynch. I think that is reason enough to declare her town. While a bus is possible, I see other people as much more scummy than Imp. Your role has had no effect on the game and so is easier to fake-claim, as you could claim several ineffective roles. And I'd like to say that when I say you're my second scumpick you still seem very town-like to me.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #654 on: November 20, 2013, 11:49:39 pm »

Theory time, questions for anyone/everyone:

Town-hostile roles which have/reasonably could appear in an S game-

All flavors of Scum.
Any type of SK.
A conventional conversion cult (third Party)

... Anything else?

Devil I dunno but I'm willing to write off this game as devil-free, so that can be ignored.

It's D4 and there's been two night kills all nights except N1.  We still have no reason, or speculation that I've read, as to 'why no Scum kill N1?'  Given that one Scum was a knight - that Scum had no tempting night action to take instead of the kill even if all the others were busy.

Meph has told us that there is no new Scum shared power in this game - so we don't face a shared kill-or-convert (unless what we saw in S2 was a kill-or-convert that always killed in that game) Scum power.

But if we have a third party converter, people have been very quiet about it, it's not appeared on any of the role flips, and Since this is D4.... 4 of us are converted, game over already.

I'm trying to figure out IF we could be facing a non-Scum, non-Killing 'enemy' third party, and if so, what would make them 'hostile', how would they be hostile, and how could we tell they were the enemy.

There's nothing else possible, right?
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #655 on: November 20, 2013, 11:55:54 pm »

So, you suggesting we have a Survivor third-party?
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #656 on: November 21, 2013, 12:41:23 am »

So, you suggesting we have a Survivor third-party?

Neither suggesting nor talking about Survivors, but I will here.

Survivors are not Town-hostile - at least they don't have to be by Wincon.  A survivor that makes it alive to game end, they win - and their being around doesn't interfere with a Town win, thus the 'not Town-hostile' classification.  (survivors can be darn dangerous to Town because they don't -need- a Town win, and Town wins can sometimes be harder to get than Scum wins - if Scum start to win a survivor might be quite please to help them do so if it won't risk their death.  But that danger comes from the Survivor player's Day-game, how they vote and who they side with.  All but one Survivor in S has had no night ability, the one who did was the resurrected Lone Vamp who could block or if blocking twice, kill.)

I honestly don't care if we have 'benign' third parties running around - especially if their players behave in a pro-Town fashion.

I'm only concerned about possible types of hostile third parties - especially those types that I don't realize could be an issue.

I know all Scum must die before Town can win.  I know any Serial Killers must die before Town can win.  I dunno if devils are 'a threat to Town' or not, but that's alright because I'm close to certain that there's no devils dealing around.  But that's everything 'threat to Town' that I can think of, and since I've been thinking about that a lot but not seeing anything new or feeling like I've thought about it enough, I wanted to ask everyone what they thought.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #657 on: November 21, 2013, 05:47:46 am »

I guess it should have been more immediately obvious, but Max's plan must have been to get Persus mislynched in order to have the hunter target him at night. As he was a knight, the attack wouldn't have worked. Perhaps they were afraid of town lynching scum during the day and the hunter getting the final scum at night.


Tiruin
I've to note that, even in your analysis, Your analysis is a generality--considering that it includes the prospect of Max//Caz to be scum, instead of directly judging them SPECIFICALLY. ie FoS'ing suspects.
I believe the same analysis, on observation, includes me as 'scummy' instead--or are you trying to twist something there? Because that's what I'm feeling on how the direct hop is going.
This is a new kind of scumhunting. I'm saying the meta-data (voting patterns, post counts etc.) correctly showed Max and Caz to be the scummiest players and so I have good reason for suspecting you too as you're the next scummiest by this metric.

You didn't read my posts, did you?

Reasons and case-basis on me, NQT. I'd love to read them.
Of course I read your posts. But I put more faith in people's actions than what they say. If, after completing my next round of analysis, I still find you guilty I'll present further reasons for that being the case. For now, I'm trusting the voting patterns.

Calling it a lie then making it part of a logical reasoning--when said reasoning is discarded as you said yourself--seems like a big deal here.
Not really. I often change my mind when new information comes to light or when I gain a fresh perspective on old information.

*might*?
Ello, there is 1 scum and 4 town. Mislynch 1, 3 town. NK 1, 2 town. With a Persus being there as honorable proof.
I was assuming the hunter was going to kill another townplayer in the night, but apparently Toaster has decided to show restraint.

NQT..how or why does your analysis reflect differently from...the lynch vote count here?
Have you not being paying any attention whatsoever?! I count the number of separate individuals a person has voted for during the day, not just who they happened to be voting at the end of the day. In fact, I track everyone's vote and their reasons for the vote in a spreadsheet.

I know that one of the scum must have bussed Max
@bolded part: 'Know'?
..Wait, erk. It was interesting though, how that was worded (..you're the only other voting for Persus) but..bleh. Anyway.

What's with how you format that list anyway? Toony is in a separate box. You are in a separate box.
The only people not voting Max were a now-confirmed townie and myself, so of course I know scum bussed Max! The numbers next to people's names in my analysis are the number of people those players have actively suspected in the day. Of the five players left alive, you've actively suspected the least number of players. Keeping a low-profile is the greatest scum-tell.

Logic dictates that you leave a vote on me without sustainable evidence, then? Or are you just signalling what 'the vote analysis' leaves?
Basically, I'm signalling that you are the number one suspect but I might change my mind if further investigation shows this to be untenable.

Also that means you saw him breathing..which means he was alive due to respiratory function. Which generally leads to the everything-else-function like circulation . . .Bleh. Putting it aside but..it strikes me as weird how that happened (most @Meph but :P I've got Priest notes on the before-time)

..Though I haven't read anything on 'visually seeing him [RESPIRE]' anywhoo.
I saw proof that he was definitely alive. I'd be a pretty rubbish resurrection if I'd just left him there without seeing if he was really alive.

"Track record"? And "Kill another Town"?
Clarify.
'Track record' is an idiom basically meaning 'collective accomplishments and failings'. I was saying that Toaster has consistently targeted town players to kill in the night and so I have little faith that he'd successfully pick scum on the last night.

Persus
Imp- I'm pretty sure Imp's town. If Imp hadn't roleclaimed, I would have been the one to swing yesterday, as 3 players voted me, one said he would have if Imp hadn't claimed, and scum Imp would have voted me as well, which would have been enough to hang me.
This makes a lot of sense but I'm going to go over Day 3 again to double-check how things went down.

Tiruin- She is the second most scummy at the moment, as Illusionist seems like an easy role to fake-claim right now. However, she tunneled Caz fairly strongly for two days straight and helped to lynch him. Other a single vote on Cmega, she's voted confirmed scum. So she seems town.
Yeah this how I thought at first. But then... tunnelling your team mates (as unproductive as it looks) is definitely a way to avoid general suspicion as you look active and productive withotu risking drawing the unwanted attention of genuine town. I'm going to be looking into it today.

NQT-NQT has seemed scummy to me, mainly for the "no rational reason why Max could fake-claim" business. Max had the opportunity to get away with it, especially as he didn't have to fear the Monster Hunter. He accuses me of voting him for voting me, and he would be exactly right. NQT did everything he could to try and get me or Imp lynched instead of Max lynched, and if he had convinced more than Toonyman, he would have succeeded. I highly doubt that at this stage of the game someone would do an elaborate bus of Max when his lynch of me would have succeeded if it hadn't been for Imp. In addition, the fact that his primary means of voting someone has consistently shown him on top and thus, ultra-town is also suspicious. Another thing that seems suspicious to me is the flavor of NQT's resurrection. The Temple of Death seems something different and separate then normal resurrections, which usually happen in a graveyard. NQT prays to the gods. This gives me a very pagan feel to it. He also said he prayed to the gods. I may be assuming something here (I'm a Christian), but I assumed the priests in this were monotheistic. Finally there's NQT's interactions with scum. D1 he and Max have a huge battle, that then turns into them and Caz ganging up on Nerjin when he took NQT's side. D2 he voted Caz, then switched to Jim. D3 he voted Max, then switched to me. That seems like a guy trying to appear town by voting scum, but avoiding actually following through.
So at the time I couldn't fathom why a rational Max would fakeclaim seer. Now I know he was a knight and was hoping to draw the attention of the hunter, I can kind of see why he did it. But at the time!

I don't see why a setting with good witches and sorcerers would necessarily have a monotheistic religion. In previous Supernatural games there were town priests that prayed to multiple gods (in Supernatural 2, for instance).

I obviously didn't appear town by voting scum and switching my vote off for other reasons if now you think it makes me look like scum. Willingness to change one's mind when evidence suggests things to be otherwise is a town trait. Was Toony scum just because he voted you?

Toaster
Verdict:  I need to go over all of NQT and Tiruin's posts again.  I still doubt it's Imp or Persus.
Whoever is scum, scum have voted scum in this game. Tiruin on Caz, Imp on Max, Max on me and Persus etc. We've got to work out which bus was most likely.

Okay, in my next post expect an examination of the lynching cases.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #658 on: November 21, 2013, 08:26:18 am »

Imp
There's nothing else possible, right?
Well, Meph did say words on that special role--as far, nobody has claimed it so the thought borders on it being scum or at least, non-town aligned (benevolent/malevolent thirdparty). Since nobody claimed it prior to our debate now, it is safe to say that either the wincon is not compatible with town and its hiding out, or it is scum and fakeclaimed (early or late).

It can't be Toaster, unless he has some sort of bonus to being a Hunter (...with no monsters or supernatural creatures other than us ESP users).

It can't be Persus, due to how he's been acting (referring to role more than playstyle) and due to prior evidence.

It probably can or can't be Imp, with me falling on can't due to how she outed Max (she's leaning towny to me on how she worked it out D3 and not purely by the claim. IF its a bus, then its the nicest bus ever in the most diplomatic way possible.)

I can say it isn't me but that'll just be fluff until proven. It may be NQT given how, in a sense, his claim contends with Caz and he did state before that he believed certain aligned priests cannot rez people in certain alignments..something which I doubt given how Meph works. I'd link it but I'm reading back and working on memory.



NQT

Quote
Have you not being paying any attention whatsoever?! I count the number of separate individuals a person has voted for during the day, not just who they happened to be voting at the end of the day. In fact, I track everyone's vote and their reasons for the vote in a spreadsheet.
Oh, I have, NQT. I just have one sharp point prodding my shoulder.
Quote
This is a new kind of scumhunting. I'm saying the meta-data (voting patterns, post counts etc.) correctly showed Max and Caz to be the scummiest players and so I have good reason for suspecting you too as you're the next scummiest by this metric.
What exactly is that metric?
And
Quote
The only people not voting Max were a now-confirmed townie and myself, so of course I know scum bussed Max! The numbers next to people's names in my analysis are the number of people those players have actively suspected in the day. Of the five players left alive, you've actively suspected the least number of players. Keeping a low-profile is the greatest scum-tell.
(By obvious logic, if you didn't know scum bussed Max, then there's only one culprit.)
I'd love for you to expound on the bolded part - who do you see I've suspected that makes you say such things? How it makes me scum in regard to what I've said, please.

@underlined: Expound then compare to your target. I see your vote more like a marker than not given that I've a good feeling we can debate the face of the earth away today and end up more than not, probably safe tomorrow.

Quote
I guess it should have been more immediately obvious, but Max's plan must have been to get Persus mislynched in order to have the hunter target him at night. As he was a knight, the attack wouldn't have worked. Perhaps they were afraid of town lynching scum during the day and the hunter getting the final scum at night.
When or where did you get this idea?


Toaster:
Continued query: On your advance to ToonyMan, why him instead of the other person - like NQT, who was of reasonable suspicion?
Fix'd.

Also, do you have any kind of modification to your role as a hunter? We haven't seen any kind of monster or otherwise--and I believe that the Exorcist (Jim) covered the ground of moral-aligned (where does one classify demons/devils?) enemies.

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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #659 on: November 21, 2013, 08:35:14 am »

EBWOP

Given how you're like..a mediator here on prior evidence [I'd really be suspecting you if it were based on play because of..how unstraight the thinking has been], I'd like your thoughts on this part, Persus
I said I thought Toaster wasn't scum. I believe he is some sort of killer role because of a lack of a counterclaim, and because why wouldn't he fake-claim. Some had to claim hunter, and his reasons for attacking people sound legitimate. Imp almost singlehandedly caused Max's lynch. I think that is reason enough to declare her town. While a bus is possible, I see other people as much more scummy than Imp. Your role has had no effect on the game and so is easier to fake-claim, as you could claim several ineffective roles. And I'd like to say that when I say you're my second scumpick you still seem very town-like to me.
It only clicked in my mind recently.
'Fake'claim? So you believe more that I lied about my role than not, yes? Tell me, how would you rationalize a player's actions wherein all actions do not produce empirical results, yet still lies within the zone of acceptability?
I will push you and state that yes, it may be a fake claim. It may also be a real claim. I ask how you see these things, however. Meaning: Any difference between a player whose role pours out nothing observable compared to a liar who picks out a conceivably 'opportunistic' role?

Also correct me if I'm wrong: You judged your scumpicks (as compared to scummy-picks) due to how they presented their roles and then thought about their efficiency here?

Do you think those who have claimed (ie Imp/NQT) before today have true roles? Why?
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