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[Lenglon]

Tiruin: thank you. that answer is exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. I've read it over a couple times but haven't done all the comparisons and backtracking to check it out fully yet. I'll probably have some follow up in a bit.

I hope your schedule improves.

[Nerjin]

As the spleen of the revolution I shall be Downvoting this team choice.

While I have a rather good view of Griffpup and a null leaning town read on GriffDay I simply cannot ignore the sheer length that Sheep has went through to conjure a case against Dariush from pretty much nothing*. Plus his insistence that Tiruin is likely spy from a single slip up**. Maybe Sheep is town. It's possible. HOWEVER with the above I'm

*Dariush’s “chain-sawing” as it has been called doesn’t seem all that out of the ordinary for the little ball of fluff he is.

**While I’ll admit it’s a confusing slip-up it doesn’t indicate someone as spy as Sheep would like us to think.

As for the stuff addressed to me: I'll address that in a moment.

[Nerjin]

First of all: The more I think of it the more NQT’s “This is what happened last time.” Seems a little less like casual conversation and more like a Spy-comm. I’m still leaning towards the first. But… I dunno it does seem a little odd.

Sheep and Nerjin: I'm getting pretty tired of you two having a giant debate based on the assumption that I'm somehow a confirmed spy without ever asking me a single question. It looks like a really large waste of time and energy to me. If you have something to say to me or ask me, please, do it.

You've done a good job of making your status improve with me. May I just say that first? The problem is this: You are still my highest scum pick due to Remuthra's actions. So I have no question for you. All my suspicions come from Remuthra who sadly flaked before the glorious rebellion could be completed. So I'm sorry if it feels like I'm accusing you unfairly. You've inherited suspicion. It's a sad fact that cannot be fixed with simple questions. Even if you pull off a perfect townplay, my friend, everyone here will always remember Remuthra's actions. So my apologies.

I'm not sure how I'll vote, I really want to see more out of Nerjin and Dariush... particularly Dariush. my top two picks for a hypothetical scumteam are NQT, Tiruin, and Dariush, and NQT, Tiruin, and Nerjin.

What are you cases on either of us? If we're your top two scum-picks then you should have a case on either of us. You admit you don't have much. Well... What DO you have? In these sorts of games you can’t just toss out a “Top Scum Picks” team without some sort of reasoning behind your accusations. Come on Lenglon you can do better than that.
Griffpup

GriffPup: why did you vote up a team containing NQT and yourself when NQT was on the team that was sabotaged?

Because I made said team.  It would be counterproductive to downvote your own team.

Wait a second… The hell is this? If you were worried that NQT was a spy why would you include him on the team at all? Just making the team is not enough of a reason. That’s REALLY suspicious kiddo.
Griffday

Nerjin, sorry I don't have those reads for you yet.

It’s fine. Take your time. Though I’m gonna have to ask you why you think I am more suspicious than GriffPup out of curiousity.

I'm leaning towards the probability being that the first group had two scum in it.  Assuming that all three of the people day one are telling the truth (which I can argue case by case that they probably were), but that if there were two spies they would both automatically lie low, the probabilities of week one become:

Code: (Updated Absolute Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of scum = 0: 31.5%
          = 1: 17.9%
          = 2: 47.5%
          = 3:  3.1%

That’s nice. That’s really nice. How’d you get those numbers for week 1? I want to see the math behind these numbers.

[Lenglon]

I'm not sure how I'll vote, I really want to see more out of Nerjin and Dariush... particularly Dariush. my top two picks for a hypothetical scumteam are NQT, Tiruin, and Dariush, and NQT, Tiruin, and Nerjin.

What are you cases on either of us? If we're your top two scum-picks then you should have a case on either of us. You admit you don't have much. Well... What DO you have? In these sorts of games you can’t just toss out a “Top Scum Picks” team without some sort of reasoning behind your accusations. Come on Lenglon you can do better than that.

primarily it's associative. NQT had to be communicating to someone after all. so, ignoring Past Me for obvious reasons, and assuming GriffPup is a rebel, NQT was either talking to you, who was on the team with him, or Dariush, who it looked likely was going to be added to the team. like I said, it's not much of a case. Right now I'm leaning towards it being Dariush, which is why I'm tentatively upvoting. It's still pretty up in the air though.
still working on that follow-up Tiruin, RL stuff is slowing me down but it's going to happen, even if all I have to say is that I don't have anything to ask.

[Nerjin]

I'm not sure how I'll vote, I really want to see more out of Nerjin and Dariush... particularly Dariush. my top two picks for a hypothetical scumteam are NQT, Tiruin, and Dariush, and NQT, Tiruin, and Nerjin.

What are you cases on either of us? If we're your top two scum-picks then you should have a case on either of us. You admit you don't have much. Well... What DO you have? In these sorts of games you can’t just toss out a “Top Scum Picks” team without some sort of reasoning behind your accusations. Come on Lenglon you can do better than that.

primarily it's associative. NQT had to be communicating to someone after all. so, ignoring Past Me for obvious reasons, and assuming GriffPup is a rebel, NQT was either talking to you, who was on the team with him, or Dariush, who it looked likely was going to be added to the team. like I said, it's not much of a case. Right now I'm leaning towards it being Dariush, which is why I'm tentatively upvoting. It's still pretty up in the air though.

Why are you assuming Pup is a rebel? Why leaning towards Dariush as the attempt of NQT's communication? Other than that that's a decently solid case. You're doing good in this game kiddo [well better than I recall you being in Toon Mafia]. Still though answer those questions alright?

[griffinpup]

Griffpup

GriffPup: why did you vote up a team containing NQT and yourself when NQT was on the team that was sabotaged?

Because I made said team.  It would be counterproductive to downvote your own team.

Wait a second… The hell is this? If you were worried that NQT was a spy why would you include him on the team at all? Just making the team is not enough of a reason. That’s REALLY suspicious kiddo.

I didn't think NQT was a spy at the time of making that team.  I noticed the attempt of communication, but I didn't really think much into it.  But as I kept on thinking about it, it began to look more and more out of place and scummy.

[Lenglon]

I'm not sure how I'll vote, I really want to see more out of Nerjin and Dariush... particularly Dariush. my top two picks for a hypothetical scumteam are NQT, Tiruin, and Dariush, and NQT, Tiruin, and Nerjin.

What are you cases on either of us? If we're your top two scum-picks then you should have a case on either of us. You admit you don't have much. Well... What DO you have? In these sorts of games you can’t just toss out a “Top Scum Picks” team without some sort of reasoning behind your accusations. Come on Lenglon you can do better than that.

primarily it's associative. NQT had to be communicating to someone after all. so, ignoring Past Me for obvious reasons, and assuming GriffPup is a rebel, NQT was either talking to you, who was on the team with him, or Dariush, who it looked likely was going to be added to the team. like I said, it's not much of a case. Right now I'm leaning towards it being Dariush, which is why I'm tentatively upvoting. It's still pretty up in the air though.

Why are you assuming Pup is a rebel? Why leaning towards Dariush as the attempt of NQT's communication? Other than that that's a decently solid case. You're doing good in this game kiddo [well better than I recall you being in Toon Mafia]. Still though answer those questions alright?

I think GriffPup is a rebel because I think NQT is a spy.
I see no reason for GriffPup the spy to point out NQT the spy's actions.
I see no reason for NQT the rebel to say what NQT said.
Therefore, because NQT is a spy, GriffPup is a rebel.

Why Dariush over you? because of Dariush's recalcitrance recently, and his prediction of a week 2 sabotage.

I strongly dislike his inability to answer my current question to him. If he cannot describe a method to call someone out on communicating without taking the risk GriffPup took, then his sudden attack on GriffPup for calling NQT out like that seems completely unjustifiable. If what he is attacking GriffPup for doing is something to be avoided, and there is no better way to do it, then we might as well let the spyteam give instructions to each other publicly and never call them on it or consider it a sign of their alignment.
Tiruin: could you summarize what you thought of Nerjin then, and what you think of Nerjin now? He was the only person not on the team you upvoted that was on both teams you downvoted.

[Nerjin]

Mod: Could we change the rules a bit so that we have a chance of winning? Instead of 5 people on mission 4 AND 5 why not have mission 5 only require 4 people? As it stands it's basically impossible for us to win.

Lenglong

I think GriffPup is a rebel because I think NQT is a spy.
I see no reason for GriffPup the spy to point out NQT the spy's actions.
I see no reason for NQT the rebel to say what NQT said.
Therefore, because NQT is a spy, GriffPup is a rebel.

A Cat has 4 Legs
A Dog has 4 Legs
Therefore a Cat is a Dog.

While pointing that out, if true, IS a major point for GriffPup's towniness it doesn't mean he's automatically town. A possibility is a panicked bussing of NQT. After all he perhaps saw it and though "Hm... That's a good plan. It got us the win for Week 2. BUT I don't want people seeing me as a scum. I WAS on a failing team. So sorry NQT. Nothing personal."

I'm not saying that's what happened. I don't think it is, mind you, but I feel that your case for Pup's innocence is a little lacking if you base it on only one action. Try to look over the rest of his actions with a neutral view and see if he still holds up.

. . . we might as well let the spyteam give instructions to each other publicly and never call them on it or consider it a sign of their alignment.

SCUMTEAM ASSEMBLE!!!

[zombie urist]

Mod: Could we change the rules a bit so that we have a chance of winning? Instead of 5 people on mission 4 AND 5 why not have mission 5 only require 4 people? As it stands it's basically impossible for us to win.

We can discuss the setup after the game finishes.

[Lenglon]

Lenglong

please don't do that.

A Cat has 4 Legs
A Dog has 4 Legs
Therefore a Cat is a Dog.

that is not the form of logic I used.
A =/= B
B = S
therefore:
A =/= S
is the form of logic I used.

you are using:
A.L = 4
B.L = 4
therefore:
A = B
and it is flawed because you check no properties of A and B other than A.L and B.L

please don't do this either, or at least do so with a stronger understanding of formal logic.

While pointing that out, if true, IS a major point for GriffPup's towniness it doesn't mean he's automatically town. A possibility is a panicked bussing of NQT. After all he perhaps saw it and though "Hm... That's a good plan. It got us the win for Week 2. BUT I don't want people seeing me as a scum. I WAS on a failing team. So sorry NQT. Nothing personal."

I'm not saying that's what happened. I don't think it is, mind you, but I feel that your case for Pup's innocence is a little lacking if you base it on only one action. Try to look over the rest of his actions with a neutral view and see if he still holds up.

All things are relative. the only person I'm sure of right now is NQT. currently GriffPup is the least likely to be a spy in my eyes, and I'm working off of that as a base assumption until I have reason to believe otherwise, somewhat similarly to why I'm treating Tiruin as a spy for now.

[Lenglon]

...
ok, fine, to be accurate, the logic is:

N => !P
N
therefore
!P
where 1 means spy, and 0 means not spy, N is NQT, and P is GriffPup.

but whatever.

[Nerjin]

Lenglong

please don't do that.

Didn't mean to. I try not to change others user-names unless it's to shorten it [GriffPup/GriffDay for example]

A Cat has 4 Legs
A Dog has 4 Legs
Therefore a Cat is a Dog.

that is not the form of logic I used.
A =/= B
B = S
therefore:
A =/= S
is the form of logic I used.

you are using:
A.L = 4
B.L = 4
therefore:
A = B
and it is flawed because you check no properties of A and B other than A.L and B.L

please don't do this either, or at least do so with a stronger understanding of formal logic.

That seems like an insult somehow. If so I want you to know it worked. I do feel incredibly offended.

Anyway my point being that your logic is just as fallible as what I did. I'd like to point out that you did only mention ONE variable for both of them as your reasoning for them being spy/rebel.

[Griffionday]

griffinpup:

Why do you think NQT is scum?

That's literally half of what I've been posting: most recently here.  If I'm unclear please point me to where you want me to expand.

Nerjin:

Griffday

Nerjin, sorry I don't have those reads for you yet.

It’s fine. Take your time. Though I’m gonna have to ask you why you think I am more suspicious than GriffPup out of curiousity.

That's completely fair.  At the time it was a meta read of griffinpup as I was noticing his focus on the detail, something I had noted when I was playing scum against him, while you had more of a null tell.  You also seemed to be pushing work on us, which I balk at slightly (I'm lazy, sorry) but on a re-read I realized that you do seriously care about and press people on their reads.

However, I'm not so sure right now, and am shifting more towards griffinpup being the second scum.

I'm leaning towards the probability being that the first group had two scum in it.  Assuming that all three of the people day one are telling the truth (which I can argue case by case that they probably were), but that if there were two spies they would both automatically lie low, the probabilities of week one become:

Code: (Updated Absolute Probabilities of Week 1) [Select]

# of scum = 0: 31.5%
          = 1: 17.9%
          = 2: 47.5%
          = 3:  3.1%

That’s nice. That’s really nice. How’d you get those numbers for week 1? I want to see the math behind these numbers.

Gladly: I started with my original numbers that assumed that if a scum were present they would lay low.  Only one third of you said you actually would do that, so that possibility is only one third what it originally was (53.6*(1/3) = 17.9).  The percentage that was lost needs to be recovered on the unaffected probabilities (as total still needs to equal 100%), so I increased each of them proportionally until the total = 100% (Note, for example, 47.5/31.5 is roughly 26.8/17.8 sans my rounding errors).

For the original numbers, I did a simple prod(x/z)*P where x = number remaining of group, z = number of players to select from, & P = Pascals number.  So for the origional 53.6% I had:

Code: [Select]

Prob = (3/8)*(5/7)*(4/6)*3 = 0.536

[Lenglon]

That seems like an insult somehow. If so I want you to know it worked. I do feel incredibly offended.

We're getting off-topic, but what I was saying is that the two logical arguments are unrelated, and I didn't like you misrepresenting what I was saying like that. Sorry if I offended you.

Anyway my point being that your logic is just as fallible as what I did. I'd like to point out that you did only mention ONE variable for both of them as your reasoning for them being spy/rebel.

A) it's not remotely as bad as what you did.
B) I mentioned two variables, one for each player, each representing their alignment, I think you're using the term wrong.
C) yes, I need more data.
Day:you do realize how small your sample size is and how much your data is going to be biased, right? three randomly distributed spies have motivation to lie, all three members of the initial team are biased in favor of saying they'd sabotage day 1, and i'm biased in favor of saying i'd lay low because of the situation with past me. with a megar total of 8 samples, and a minimum of 4, maximum of 6, biased answers, why do you think your data contains any real meaning?

in short, with a data set that badly corrupted (50%-75% corrupt), what conclusions do you expect to draw from it?
(has not checked if all members of the initial team said they'd sabotage, reduce the corruption by 12.5% per one that did not)
Nerjin: your comments to me have been implying that GriffPup's scummyness is self-evident. Currently, to me, it is not. Could you please re-state your case against him?

[Griffionday]

Day:you do realize how small your sample size is and how much your data is going to be biased, right?

Okay, my first set of numbers are based purely on the statistics of the situation, it's only the proportions that each change by that is liable to be manipulated by scum team.  Now before this poll Nerjin had already essentially told us what his opinion was in how he handled himself week 2 and what his assumptions were; possibly he's lying, but unlikely.

Let's assume for a second that NQT is lying.  As such he's scum.  This means that if he were the only scum he would lay low, which would shift the numbers more toward equal probability of one v two scum (a very quick calculation says two scum would be some 2% more likely).

Then there is you: I agree with your assessment of the situation (that is I feel that Remutha thought scum would lay low, look at how he's panicking) so I feel confident that you are correct and not messing with my numbers.

Three randomly distributed spies have motivation to lie, all three members of the initial team are biased in favor of saying they'd sabotage day 1, and i'm biased in favor of saying i'd lay low because of the situation with past me.

Because even if it's completely wrong my guess that there are two spies has a >25% chance of happening.  Plus, spies also have the motovation to teall the .  Of course if you don't think Daruish honestly selected randomly everything is thrown out the window, but I've a pretty solid town read on Daruish right now so I'M satisfied with my probabilities. 

with a megar total of 8 samples, and a minimum of 4, maximum of 6, biased answers, why do you think your data contains any real meaning?

in short, with a data set that badly corrupted (50%-75% corrupt), what conclusions do you expect to draw from it?

Because my original probabilities STILL indicate my guess is the second most likely, and I'm pretty confident that NQT and Nerjin arn't lying.

Conclusions:
Good chance there were two scum on the first mission.
NQT was probably trying to deal with this in his signal to you.

And with that I'm done with the numbers (still willing to answer questions, just won't be bringing them up much more), back to the legwork... later, I've been falling asleep at work as of late, and that's no beuno.

NQT: I'll read the first Revolution tomorrow and get back to you.