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[TheWetSheep]

NQT: Your argument is flawed in that it assumes confirmed town know more. While it's true that they can be trusted to not be trying to mislead us, they really didn't have any better idea of who's scum than anyone else.

This is my last day here for a few. I'll try to make more detailed posts later.

[notquitethere]

I agree completely that confirmed town don't have any special epistemological insights that we lack. However, the fact that all three confirmed town suspected Borno or Quad or both for different reasons is at the very least suggestive.

This isn't my final word on the matter and I hope to look back on some of the interactions I mentioned (later, when I'm not at work). Forgive me though if I don't take your's and Quad's skepticism too seriously: it is exactly this scum hunting technique that netted us the Flying Dice kill.

[Quadressence]

Quad- I'll break it down: often scummy people avoid getting lynched because they don't get enough votes on them at the right time. That was happening to Flying Dice and if you look back, that's why I put the lynch vote on FD. The same pattern can be seen in your case: all the confirmed town suspected you or Borno for different reasons. I can't expect any of you to trust me unconditionally, but you should be able to trust the judgement of confirmed town. Rest assured, it's my full intention to go back and re-inspect people's interactions (especially Borno/Remuthra). I might well be wrong and you and Borno could just have both been highly unfortunate; I will continue to investigate the record.

Question: if not you then who and why?

Do you not see it? Your argument is impersonal. "Scummy people." You don't bother to list why I'm scummy except for evasiveness. No examples either, though that's tough without reasons. But, overall, your argument doesn't even apply to solely me. Anyone town has suspected ever could be interspersed in there. Heck, even you could. It's like your personal get out of jail free card.

Don't try to call me unfortunate. I'm completely assured you have no ulterior motives, and your continued investigation into the matter can only satisfy my worries that you're not some autonomous connection of data nodes. You sound like a company issuing an apology letter for a complaint.

And your question is silly. It means nothing to me. I already said you. You gave me a choice, and I chose to lynch you. Don't put that in front of us if you weren't okay with it.

I agree completely that confirmed town don't have any special epistemological insights that we lack. However, the fact that all three confirmed town suspected Borno or Quad or both for different reasons is at the very least suggestive.

This isn't my final word on the matter and I hope to look back on some of the interactions I mentioned (later, when I'm not at work). Forgive me though if I don't take your's and Quad's skepticism too seriously: it is exactly this scum hunting technique that netted us the Flying Dice kill.

Yeah. How dare I question my own alignment. Those three dead people clearly knew more about it than I do.

I don't care if you use them to further your own argument, but I do care that you don't even have one. Your argument is that people suspect me and therefore I'm scum. Is there anything else? Or am I just going to be hit by an obligatory countervote?

[notquitethere]

My argument is not "people suspect you and therefore you are scum", but rather: collectively, you and Borno have been suspected by more people more often than anyone else alive, including by all three confirmed town, and therefore you are the strongest candidate for suspicion. I don't know you're scum yet.

What is it about me that means I'm more likely to be scum than another living player?

[TheWetSheep]

NQT: Are you going to answer my questions?

Bah. I tried reading through NQT's posts in Day 1, but can't really focus on my read-through enough to really pressure him on that stuff. That being said, I found this recent post somewhat suspicious:

NQT:

Well that's an embuggerance. I voted Irony Owl because of the reasons I stated a week ago.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Among others:

Sorry for multi-posting guys, but hot damn I think I have a case.

Is it telling that in IronyOwl's initial post, he addresses all players but two: Lord Al (my predecessor) who had never posted and scum Remuthra, who had posted 16 times since the game started (much more than several of the other players) and had at that time two votes to his name? i.e. not a player one would usually miss wanting to question. In fact, Ironyowl, in addressing healer SuperBlast, appear to give what might now be interpreted as a deflective defence of Remuthra:

superBlast:

So I'm gonna stop voting random people now and and vote who I suspect and that would be Remu.

Vote Remuthra

TIME TO MISLYNCH YOU AGAIN HAHAHAHA!

Uh, ahem. This is nice and all, but are you actually pressuring Remu at the moment, or have you just decided he's the best target to kill? A very quick scan back didn't reveal anything, and it's usually better to try to get a better read on someone, even someone you genuinely suspect is scum, than to just vote them and sit on what you've got.

But look, I realise now that it was a lousy case. Owl, I'm sorry. I did no decent analysis in the last week and frankly we should have lynched Quad when we had the chance a few days back, if only because the collective suspicious against Quad/Borno followed the same pattern as Remuthra/FD and I should have stuck to my guns on that point. The only excuse I can offer is that I've just started a new job and I have orders of magnitude less time than before. There's only so much effort I have time and will to give to the game, and so opposing extensions was my way of limiting my effort expenditure, but I shouldn't have done so before being more certain than I was.

Sheep, the fact that I was sent the town role PM by Deathsword makes me towny, not anything I've said or done in game. How you form your doubts and interpret my votes is up to you. I'm done with this bussing argument. Maybe I wouldn't have known bussing would be suspected, maybe I would. You've just got to ask yourself, should you drink the wine in front of me?

Now, this may seem a bit paranoid, but it seems to me that a possible scum thought process of yours would go like this: "Sheep voted for IronyOwl because he voted Quad. Irony turned out town, and Sheep seemed very regretful that he was on that mislynch. Surely he won't vote me because I am suspicious of Quad." Especially since you showed very little suspicion of Quad up until that point. Anyway, I think my reasoning still holds up, but in Irony's case it was accompanied by very little else Hmm, now I can't think of a question to ask you about this, so I'll go with a generic one: What do you think about this?

The second paragraph, the one addressed to me, seems a bit defeatist in attitude. I can't see a reason for town to be acting defeatist, since we've only had one mislynch. Am I right in reading the tone of that paragraph as defeatist?

OnyxJew: Say that tomorrow you're alive in LyLo with me and Quad. What would you do?

Tiruin: Are you going to remove that pressure vote? The only reasoning that accompanied that vote was asking him if he was going to press people. Sure, not pressuring people could be seen as scummy, but a) he's said repeatedly he's busy and b) he's not been very confident the whole way through. Are you really more suspicious of him than anyone else?

Quad:

(Spoiler alert: I'm town. Feel free to ask Deathsword if you don't like being uncertain.)

Why did you post this? Simply for IronyOwl, or did you think it would make you look more towny?

[notquitethere]

Sorry Sheep, here's your answers:

Now, this may seem a bit paranoid, but it seems to me that a possible scum thought process of yours would go like this: "Sheep voted for IronyOwl because he voted Quad. Irony turned out town, and Sheep seemed very regretful that he was on that mislynch. Surely he won't vote me because I am suspicious of Quad." Especially since you showed very little suspicion of Quad up until that point. Anyway, I think my reasoning still holds up, but in Irony's case it was accompanied by very little else Hmm, now I can't think of a question to ask you about this, so I'll go with a generic one: What do you think about this?

As I was blinkered in pursuing my mistaken case on Owl, I didn't say much (if anything) on Quad's behaviour, though my suspicions of Borno (Quad's predecessor) were extensive and well-documented. I can't say anything about the plausibility of the hypothetical thought process you outlined. I never thought that way, but me saying this is obviously not very compelling in and of itself. I've earlier given reasons why, if I was one of you guys, I wouldn't think I was scum but I don't think it's productive to press the point. The current case I'm building against Quad works regardless of my trustworthiness as it's based on how everyone in the game has voted so far.

The second paragraph, the one addressed to me, seems a bit defeatist in attitude. I can't see a reason for town to be acting defeatist, since we've only had one mislynch. Am I right in reading the tone of that paragraph as defeatist?

I'm always disappointed when town has a mislynch. I can remember in my first BM fighting tooth-and-nail to save Scientist from being mislynched, and it was very disappointing when I failed and town killed town. Here I'm extra-disappointed because I led the ill-fated lynch and that's not something to be proud of. Of course, it's only one mislynch and we can afford another one before entering LYLO.

If anyone else had any questions I missed, do point them out: I only had time to do my vote analysis last night, I'm not deliberately ignoring questions.

[Quadressence]

Quad:

(Spoiler alert: I'm town. Feel free to ask Deathsword if you don't like being uncertain.)

Why did you post this? Simply for IronyOwl, or did you think it would make you look more towny?

Well, no. I just feel like he's biased against me, and it makes me feel better to have him know he's wrong.

My argument is not "people suspect you and therefore you are scum", but rather: collectively, you and Borno have been suspected by more people more often than anyone else alive, including by all three confirmed town, and therefore you are the strongest candidate for suspicion. I don't know you're scum yet.

What is it about me that means I'm more likely to be scum than another living player?

How is that not the same? Or are you trying to make it better by telling me you don't know I'm scum? Because it doesn't. It makes you look weak.

And I already told you. You gave me a choice. And I chose to lynch you. It'd be like voting for yourself. If you're okay with being lynched, then who am I to disagree?

[notquitethere]

Ironyowl is right, questioning your scum target is very fruitful. Your case against me is just OMGUS; this isn't making you look any less scummy.

[Teneb]

TheWetSheep(0):
Onyxjew994(1):Tiruin
Quadressence(1):notquitethere
notquitethere(2):Quadressence, TheWetSheep
Tiruin(0):

Not Voting: Onyxjew994

0 votes for extension

Day ends today at 22:00 BRT

[notquitethere]

Vote to extend- though I'm loathe to do so, extending is preferable to a mislynch. If I am still lynched in three hours, could you all please reassess my arguments in the light of my flip. I'm going to go back now and look at the Borno/Remuthra connections I was talking about earlier.

[Tiruin]

I'm personally voting to extend as I've got little to no time to post in what I had to say in before the 24 or so hours since my last post.

[Teneb]

Extension granted. Deadline is now 27th of March, 22:00 BRT

[Quadressence]

Ironyowl is right, questioning your scum target is very fruitful. Your case against me is just OMGUS; this isn't making you look any less scummy.

I think you're confused. Not only am I the one asking you questions (In contrast to you not asking me any), my case is not OMGUS. I think you need to better argue your case if you're going to try and say mine is OMGUS. Especially since you voted me second.

I'd say nice try, but it's actually not a nice try.

And have as much time as you want. Extend.

PPE: Aaand, ninjas.

[notquitethere]

Evidence-based case against Quadressence
(In which I look at the Borno-Remuthra connection)

#147 despite just voting for Borno, Remuthra says he's has a null read on him

All throughout the first part of the game, well past the RVS, Borno and Remuthra keep sending softball questions back and forth, simulating mutual hunting. They both have a vote on one another near the beginning and both withdrew before any deadline approached.

#179 Remuthra leaves Borno out of his 'lean list'

#183 Shakerag grills Remuthra on his bullshit and his faux-pressure on Borno.

#186 Remuthra says Borno wasn't doing anything suspicious. Keep in mind Remmie was dropping scumtells like they were hot and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him inadvertently give away his scum partner.

#240 FD says Borno is mildly scummy before launching into a great argument in favour of Spaghetti's lynch.

#247 FD heavily implies Borno is flailing town and proceeds to FOS him (which I know from experience can be a low-risk distancing tool)

Quad- do you have a similar evidence-based case against me?

[notquitethere]

P.S. while I was doing my reading for this, I saw that Shakerag was a lot less scummy than I'd imagined and Nerjin/Silver Dragon/TheWetSheep a lot more suspicious. Now we've got an extend I'll have time to look at the Nerjin/Remuthra connection.