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[mainiac]

It's like Putin is a teenager writing fanfiction about how his favorite characters from the 19th and 20th century teamed up to be dicks make Russia stronk and so he's drawing from both playbooks.

[smjjames]

I don't know if there actually were any secret funerals during the cold war. I do know of that movie about the sub which had the nuclear accident (cold war era) in which the crew managed to get back and some of them lived. Not sure if any of the funerals were secret, but they had to keep the incident secret until after the cold war ended.

[GreatJustice]

Putin is basically in a situation where he made a move that worked well for him (seizing Crimea), but unintended consequences are backing him into a corner. Specifically, he really didn't plan on the Donbass rebels rising up, since unlike the Crimean seizure he really can't win. Up to now he's basically been trying to keep both anti and pro war Russians happy, and it's worked; anti war Russians see that Russian troops aren't pouring into the Donbass and fighting Ukrainians, and they're happy, while pro war Russians hear of covert operations supporting the rebels and they're happy too. However, since the rebellion has gotten so bloody and it's unlikely things will ever return to normal, Putin is looking at a bunch of negative scenarios for Russia, regardless of how things go and ignoring what the US/EU do.

Previously, taking Crimea didn't necessarily destroy Russo-Ukrainian relations for all time, nor did they destroy the foundation of the Ukrainian state. Putin would have probably preferred a peaceful annexation of Crimea followed by the Donbass using their electoral influence to prevent EU supporting westerners from completely cutting ties to Russia. Instead, in his best case scenario, he gets a very unstable, overstretched pseudo-country on his borders that desires to join Russia but has little to offer economically, especially after a devastating war, as well as the enmity of what remains of Ukraine. Worst case scenario, he ends up with a hostile failed state on his border in a constant state of chaos, possibly spilling into Russia on occasion.

I think a lot of you guys are giving Putin too much credit as an evil mastermind plotting the wholesale annexation of Ukraine via Russian agents in the East. Probably at first he had nothing at all to do with the rebels and simply wished they would go away (though he couldn't say such a thing with many Russians sympathetic to the rebels). However, the strong fight put up by the DNR/LPR, aided in part by many adventurers crossing the border to assist, made it really hard for Putin to throw his hands in the air and do nothing. So he's basically operating according to Russian public opinion at this point, as opposed to any sinister plan.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Bad, bad, bad night....

What can I say? Liberal democracy is bad for waging wars. Corrupted liberal democracy is awful in that role

[LordSlowpoke]

what's going on, ranger? don't tell me the stress is getting to you

you're doing your best out there

[Detharon]

Putin is basically in a situation where he made a move that worked well for him (seizing Crimea), but unintended consequences are backing him into a corner.
-snip-

Although I can understand the strategic significance of Crimea to Russians, sending an army there to seize it turned out to be a wrong move. It was a move that nobody expected, that's why it worked perfectly, but if it was a truly brilliant move we wouldn't be witnessing its sad long-term consequences. Any dumbass can send an army to capture a region whilst destroying the mutual relations with rest of the world. A plan of a true mastermind would have the same result, without negative consequences, and without shooting a single bullet.

"In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good."

[Ukrainian Ranger]

what's going on, ranger? don't tell me the stress is getting to you

you're doing your best out there

I am tired...

Tired of Ukrainian press using euphemisms like "anti-terror-operation" or "separatists" when we have a war with Russian army

Tired of the minister of foreign affairs who talks about how united the world around Ukraine

Tired of the president who speak about peace plans and shake hands with Putin

Tired of mantra "we shouldn't do X to not provoke Russia" that I hear since March from scores of people, ranging from my neighbor to the Prime Minister

Tired of lack of any public action against traitors.

Tired of lack of war censorship that allows press including openly pro-Russian to operate with no interference

Tired of politicians that make PR on the war

Tired of battalion commanders who lecture generals in facebook (I know that our generals are a bunch of incompetent fools and\or traitors with few exceptions. Yet one shouldn't be genius to understand that military subordination can't be ignored)

Tired of lack of proper centralized war propaganda with civilian press\internet doing most of the job

Tired of one of the results of above - little to no one cares about successes and failures of real combat capable soldiers (paratroopers, special forces, marines, artillery crews) and all media attention going to volunteer National Guard battalions as if army is not present at all

Tired of internet hysteria after  losses in the aforementioned battalions. "New government is getting rid of revolution heroes!!!" and more bullshit like that. Guys with two months of actual training = heavy losses at the front. People can't accept that sad and simple truth.

Tired of lack of Anti-Russian propaganda like Anti-Ukrainian in Russia

I am tired of many other thing that are incompatible with country being at war

[Sergarr]

That' because despite Poroshenko saying that Russian troops invaded Ukraine, he (and this is the BEST PART) hasn't declared war on Russia.

EDIT: Meanwhile the situation is more and more reminding me of a usual pattern big revolutions go through:

Spoiler: like these (click to show/hide)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

First come the liberal democrats to replace the old autocracy, the liberals fail to do anything fast, and because of that, second come the extreme radicals and terror.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Declaring war on Russia is not the only option. To be more precise - de jure declaration of war will get our cities bombed and nothing more. Undeclared war works both ways
But one can mobilize its country without war declaration. And what I see in Ukraine - very limited mobilization.  IMO not adequate tosituations.
And no, I don't mean mobilization = giving a rifle to several millions and sending them to the front. I mean industry (at least state owned), press, justice system and so on should switch to war mode.

[Sergarr]

You cannot switch your country to a war mode while your Rada is composed of the same people who were in Yanukovich government.

And you don't have two months to make elections...

[GreatJustice]

Putin is basically in a situation where he made a move that worked well for him (seizing Crimea), but unintended consequences are backing him into a corner.
-snip-

Although I can understand the strategic significance of Crimea to Russians, sending an army there to seize it turned out to be a wrong move. It was a move that nobody expected, that's why it worked perfectly, but if it was a truly brilliant move we wouldn't be witnessing its sad long-term consequences. Any dumbass can send an army to capture a region whilst destroying the mutual relations with rest of the world. A plan of a true mastermind would have the same result, without negative consequences, and without shooting a single bullet.

"In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good."

Really, seizing Crimea wasn't just a strategic move for Putin.

See, for the past while, Putin has been having realizations about his power in Russia, specifically that his popularity has been tapering off and that domestic issues are taking the forefront. Now, while people treat Putin like a crazed dictator, he does actually have to keep winning elections to hold power, and it's unlikely there is much to be done on the domestic front to improve his popularity. Further, Russians everywhere were hearing news of how Ukraine was sliding away from Russia's sphere of influence and towards the West. So Putin realized, like many world leaders before him, that he could secure a strategic victory from what appeared to be a general setback, while using it to look like he's a nationalistic "Tough on America" sort of president and gain popularity. Putin's move was successful barring the recent Donbass stuff (which, again, has no beneficial result for him but which he wasn't able to stop earlier due to Russian public opinion), but his strategic moves only seem clever when contrasted with the incompetents that he's facing.

[Sergarr]

So after meeting with EU officials in Brussel the Poroshenko has said that "he doesn't see a military solution of a conflict". Also something about negotiations saving Ukraine from point of no return.

I cannot imagine the amount of backlash this statement is going to receive in Ukraine.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Comparing to losses near Illovaisk? Very little

Worst part is that disaster at Illovaisk is not a fault of Poroshenko or generals, it is a fault of bunch of useful* idiots who forgot that you can't break military subordination, not follow orders, disclose military secrets and spread panic

Really Semenchenko and few others should face military  tribunal... And that is hard to do because they have popular support and putting them on trial will have destabilization

*For Putin

[timferius]

Intersting article regarding the US and their reluctance to say 'invasion'.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-why-the-u-s-avoids-calling-russia-s-actions-an-invasion-1.2750469

[Ukrainian Ranger]

http://en.tengrinews.kz/politics_sub/Kazakhstan-may-leave-EEU-if-its-interests-are-infringed-Nazarbayev-255722/

Heh, Zhirinovsky and Putin should watch their words or lose one of Russian few allies