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Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[smjjames]

I know CNN is looking at the Senate atm, but there could be a shift in the House of Representatives.

[Frumple]

Looks like medical marijuana is going to be legal in Florida tomorrow. Buncha' stuff still not in for the rest of it, looking at it, but it doesn't look like there's enough missing votes to tilt the decision the other direction, for that.

E: Actually, it might not have enough votes in favor to pass the 60% margin. Hrm.

[FearfulJesuit]

West Virginia's and Arkansas' Senate seats have officially flipped from Democratic to Republican. Georgia and Virginia are likely to follow suit soon.

[mainiac]

West Virginia's and Arkansas' Senate seats have officially flipped from Democratic to Republican. Georgia and Virginia are likely to follow suit soon.

Precinct results tend to come in from conservative, low population areas first.  The minority of precincts in Virginia not reporting yet are high in population and liberal.

It looks like Georgia has a high chance of being called without a runoff.

[FearfulJesuit]

Woops, just realized Georgia voted for a Republican in '08, not a Democrat. Also, South Dakota has flipped.

[RedKing]

Hagan has a 3 point lead so far in NC (yay) but in my more local Congresscritter race, my district overwhelmingly elected a Tea Party preacher to the House, a guy who said he "had no qualms" about a war with Mexico if need be to stop illegal immigration. Yay for districts gerrymandered to fuck and back. Can't believe we elected a freakin *preacher* to Congress. Clergy should be disqualified from holding public office, IMHO.


EDIT: Interesting times in Kansas, where independent Greg Orman is running in a dead heat with Pat Roberts (R).

And in Mississippi, where there had been some murmuring months ago that the Tea Party would stay home out of revenge for the nasty primary battle, Thad Cochran looks poised for re-election. As I figured, the Tea Party is still going to show up and vote for a (R) before they'd dare risk letting a godless Muslim Ebola-loving librhul get elected.

DOUBLE-EDIT: Following on what Nate Silver had said yesterday, NH and NC are both holding on to narrow leads for the Dem incumbents (4 point lead for Shaheen in NH, 3 for Hagan in NC). Cautiously optimistic, especially if Orman pulls out the win in Kansas.

[FearfulJesuit]

Hagan has a 3 point lead so far in NC (yay) but in my more local Congresscritter race, my district overwhelmingly elected a Tea Party preacher to the House, a guy who said he "had no qualms" about a war with Mexico if need be to stop illegal immigration. Yay for districts gerrymandered to fuck and back. Can't believe we elected a freakin *preacher* to Congress. Clergy should be disqualified from holding public office, IMHO.

It's really something how simultaneously wonderful and batshit insane Americans can be, isn't it?

[Eagle_eye]

To be honest, I sometimes find it hard to believe we've actually gone this long without wiping ourselves out. People are stupid.

[smjjames]

To be honest, I sometimes find it hard to believe we've actually gone this long without wiping ourselves out. People are stupid.

As a species or as a country? lol

Anyhow, the California stuff hasn't started coming in yet.

[RedKing]

Hagan-Tillis race has tightened considerably. Only about a 9,000 vote difference at this point, with 50.8% of precincts reporting. Meanwhile, AP has called New Hampshire for Shaheen (D).

Republicans have secured 45 Senate seats, Dems 41.

EDIT: AP has also called the Michigan race for Peters (D), which is a big shot in the arm for Dem hopes. If they can hold on to Iowa and unseat Roberts in Kansas (still quite possible), there's a chance.

DOUBLE-EDIT: Still way too early to call in Louisiana and Colorado, but the early results are tight in both. Since early results tend to favor rural/Republican areas and metropolitan/Democrat areas are last to come in, this could be a good sign for Democrats.

[smjjames]

CNN has 43 for republicans and 41 for democrats though. There's some close races in there.

[Karlito]

NYT is calling Louisiana as a tie (it's a 3-way race), so we'll have to wait for the runoff.

I guess the results will be more settled once I get back from my evening class.

[FearfulJesuit]

Hagan-Tillis race has tightened considerably. Only about a 9,000 vote difference at this point, with 50.8% of precincts reporting. Meanwhile, AP has called New Hampshire for Shaheen (D).

Republicans have secured 45 Senate seats, Dems 41.

EDIT: AP has also called the Michigan race for Peters (D), which is a big shot in the arm for Dem hopes. If they can hold on to Iowa and unseat Roberts in Kansas (still quite possible), there's a chance.

DOUBLE-EDIT: Still way too early to call in Louisiana and Colorado, but the early results are tight in both. Since early results tend to favor rural/Republican areas and metropolitan/Democrat areas are last to come in, this could be a good sign for Democrats.

Louisiana probably won't be called for weeks. Because its legal system and constitution are built on the Napoleonic model, it has a two-tier election system like France.

[smjjames]

CNN updated it to 42 for democrats and 46 for republicans. Looks like they could very well get control of the senate.

[RedKing]

I dunno...I think the Republicans are going to stall out around 48 seats. Just a gut feeling.


One very interesting note: a number of states have minimum wage hike ballot initiatives in play, and they're all passing. Even in blood-red states like Nebraska, they're passing with about 60-65% approval. Republicans simply can't defend their opposition to a national minimum wage increase when their core states are passing them.

EDIT: NC race has flipped to Tillis at the moment, by a margin of about 10,000 votes with 68% reporting. I'm really hoping late returns from Charlotte and Raleigh will flip that shit back around.

DOUBLE-EDIT: Okay, here's how the Senate margin boils down at this point:

Iowa
North Carolina
Louisiana
Alaska
Kansas

If Republicans win 3 out of 5 of these, it's a 50-50 split and Biden serves as the tiebreaker. If they win 4 of 5, they take control.

At the moment, Roberts is slowly pulling ahead of Orman and looks set to win in Kansas. NC is still way too close to call. LA is probably headed for a runoff thanks to le politique Acadien. AK and IA haven't reported in yet.

We're probably not gonna know who has control for a good long while, especially if Dems win in IA, AK or NC. The Lousiana runoff wouldn't be until AFTER the new Senate is seated, which will lead to all sorts of weirdness. Also, means that if the whole shebang hinges on the Louisiana runoff election, you're going to see an absolute metric fuckton of money poured into that ad market over the Christmas season. :-/