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[Nerjin]

That's how a basic scumhunt is done.  One last note on doubt:

Doubt is something that's ok to have but UGLY to show.  If you doubt or have second thoughts, DON'T DISPLAY IT.  If you think "He looks passive but I don't know..."  you SAY "You scum!  Stop being passive!!!"  If you think "He may have a good reason to attack guy really." say "Give me your reasons and stop being vague."

Doubt is something for yourself.  When you have doubt, go back and see if your original ideas still hold up.  If they do or if you find yourself saying "I'm not sure" then go back to the attack until you are sure.  This ain't the USA: we play by Guilty until Proven Innocent here.  Unless you can get yourself to believe they may be honest, keep the attack.

So doubt is ok to have if used right.. but the town does NOT need to hear it.  If you doubt, accuse anyway as if you know.  If you wonder, accuse as if you know it.  If you know the answer, ASK ANYWAY and let THEM answer.  Make them convince you they are town: don't do the job for them.

[Tiruin]

Nerjin: What's gotten into you? Flipping out at Dariush and getting all jumpy on me and ZU. I can kind of understand Dariush, but wow. Neither of us had had a chance to post before you made a snap decision about us. Jump the gun much?

PPE: Now that I think about it, Tiruin lost his cool with Dariush too. I guess I just have a thick skin. (too much time on /b/, I guess)

First of all, I believe Nerjin's acting such because of past relations with Dariush, some of which are confidential between me and him (that one game where they were together...Don't ask.) That, and what is generally known of Dariush is that his diplomacy skills need improving, so he goes out the way only a man could.

Goading.

What's different here is that he's doing it all wrong. If you suspect someone as town, or scum, you do taunt them, yes. But he's doing it just for giggles and laughs, just like he was when he started up. Also, he isn't putting in the idea that "THESE TWO MAY BE REBELS, Y'KNOW", because...well, if those two people were rebels, then there would be a huge gap between winning if he was one. If we were scum, he would be pressing the people who were in his team.

Thing is, he isn't.

Recent posts point to an apathetic attitude, taking the chance to make fun of others at his own pleasure. That doesn't speak rebel at all, or even a smart rebel.

Yeah, this is me saying he's scum. He also forgot to answer my question on him, which I expect will contain no less than 1 expletive.

Also, I didn't lose my cool. There's a big difference between irritation at the boisterous youngling, and anger. The latter, I see, is always the one to be firstly assumed.

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

I've always voted on my own volition, for the record.

Right. You just point out in definitives who upvoted the team and who was on what mission.

What I'm talking about is proof in relation to everyone else involved, but vague prancing around without conclusive evidence.

I've said why!  ZU and NQT's vote jumps indicate a mass scumteam attempt to spike the vote.

Smooth move, tiger. Eliminate ToonyMan because of a slip.

What?  I listed three people and said they were scum.  You seem to be trying to lump a fourth person into my accusation because... I don't know, maybe spies would be less good at remembering how many scum there are in the game even though they'd remember having one of their team killed off??

On the first...it still doesn't make reasonable sense. It does make sense, but not in a way that forwards your point. Thanks to Toony's recordings, its all a case based on "NERJIN IS SCUM, O NO." or something along those over emphasized lines. Pretty much the case, actually.

Second, I was pointing at that because you forgot to answer my question about your case on me. Or forwarding any case at all except for those people voting up a team which is susceptible to doubt due to the controversial Nerjin. Who..actually, nobody has seen in action.

Taking the passive-aggressive route in tagging people as scum, and giving a vaguely neutral stance on people who are town.

I mean, its very easy to hide being a spy when you downvote, only being up for scrutiny when you upvote. Saying a no clears you more than saying a yes here, especially when judgement lies on words and formatting, eh?

Look at Nerjin. He is flailing. You think scum would out themselves that easily?

[Dariush]

Fuck off you son of a bitch.

Woof.

I can confirm that my flavor mentions that I was in a team with Ford or something. However, I specifically asked GG about this and he said that this is in no way indicative of his alignment.

Okay, so here's my take on the situation. Ford is definitely confirmed town, I know I am town.
Case 1: LS is a rebel, ZU is lying about votejumping. The scumteam is ZU, Tiruin and either Toony or NQT, no questions asked.
Case 2: ZU is telling the truth, LS is summoning a bullshit case. In this case, the scumteam is LS, Toony and someone unknown. The bad thing is that this someone could be anyone among Toaster, Tiruin, Nerjin and NQT, since we have absolutely no information if LS is indeed a spy.

Well, I'm kinda stumped here. My gut urges me to go with the second option because of Toony's scumminess over the entire game, him picking the same scumteam as LS did before him, LS just kinda assuming that this is the day for scumteam to pile up onto the upvoting and discarding the possibility of ZU changing his mind, suggesting a signal, discarding the possibility of Toony being scum and so on. Since we're already assuming that LS and Toony are scum, I can say that I am moderately sure that Nerjin and NQT aren't the third scum. That means that unless someone says something that radically changes my mind I'll downvote any team that has either Toony, LS, Toaster or Tiruin.

I so hope I am right in this.

[Dariush]

EBWODP: 'him picking the same scumteam as LS did before him' means 'Toony picking the same scumteam as LS did before LS did'.

[Tiruin]

Dar: Why'd you bring up an "If you were town at the end of the game I'd so want-" idea? What purpose was your post addressing Nerjin or Ford with copious amounts of sarcasm there?

[Leafsnail]

ZU made that post BEFORE I proposed the team. 24 hours is more than enough time for one to change their mind. The fact that you didn't notice or consider this is simply inexcusable for someone who's been on the ball with your analyses as much as you have.

The problem is not that it's not enough time for you to change your mind.  If ZU had come into the thread and said, explicitly, "I have decided now that I'm going to upvote this team because [good reasons]" then that might have been OK.  Heck he could've even omitted the reasons bit if he was in a huge rush when submitting his vote.

ZU didn't do that.  He avoided stating what he was going to vote in advance, even though he had explicitly said he would downvote it before.  There is no reason for a rebel to do this.  NQT did exactly the same thing by not posting at all during the voting phase.  The only reason to do this is to try and trick people as to how many votes are going to be in favour of the team (if two people suddenly changed their positions it might scare other people off).

So yes, he could have changed his mind, but he should have said so before the vote.  The fact that you thought the vote couldn't pass unless the spies decided to jump it shows that he did not in fact make it clear which direction he would vote.

...basically, I think you made an attempt to play into my preconceptions and failed miserably. And now that I think about it ... that might explain a lot of your actions throughout the game that have been puzzling me.

I don't care about your preconceptions, except to the extent that I want you to drop them because you're defending the scumteam.

The biggest thing is that you haven't been helping me or others find flaws in our arguments or reads. You're content to let us struggle and flail about. Winning as a rebel requires collaboration, but winning as a spy requires confusion. All along, you've been seeding confusion while discouraging discussion.

This just isn't true.  You haven't provided any analysis in support of this, so I presume you added this on just to try and make yourself feel better about your "Leafsnail is a spy" theory.  Don't.

That means that unless someone says something that radically changes my mind I'll downvote any team that has either Toony, LS, Toaster or Tiruin.

I so hope I am right in this.

Yeah I can't propose a team compatible with this either.  Why is Toaster even on your list?

[Leafsnail]

You are right about Toony though, I overlooked that.  I still don't think he's likely to be scum though since he'd have to be bussing both his teammates and I've seen him as town all game.

[Toaster]

Let's assume for a second that the vote shenanigans mean Ford is town and ZU is scum.  What does this mean?  It means (at least) one of NQT, Nerjin, and Toony is scum alongside of him, because why else would ZU secretly upvote it?  This leads Nerjin to be unlikely scum, given he publicly and privately voted it down.

This leads to an odd situation with the last two votes.  At least one of Leafsnail or Tiruin has to be scum.  If we assume Tiruin is, then he and the scum among NQT/Toony both downvoted the Dariush team that was sabotaged.  Why would 2/3 the spy team vote down a spy-loaded team in a known close vote?  If we assume Leafsnail is a spy, then he downvoted a spy-loaded team that would have won him the game.  Neither of these situations seem particularly likely.

As such, let's go back and discard our original assumption and make ZU town and careless about his vote.  Let's keep the Ford assumption valid as well.  We also must discard our Nerjin/NQT/Toony assumptions, since we can no longer assume there was indeed a spy on that team.  That leaves no assumed spies.  Again, at least one of Tiruin and Leafsnail is scum- but also with this set of assumptions, at least one of Leafsnail and Dariush is as well.

Since I read scum on Tiruin and town on Dariush, I'm going to first assume Leaf and Tiruin are both scum.  They voted oppositely on the last vote, which is strange.  Scum here are strongly pressed to get this team right, because a failed team is game over while a successful team gives four confirmed townies- a very strong incentive at this point.  Actually, this leads to an oddity.  There's not a single spy team that would make sense for all three of them to be downvoting the last team (and by extension the team was 100% rebel).  If we assume that the last team had a spy on it and every spy upvoted it, the spy team would then be Tiruin, ZU, and either NQT or Toony.

Ugh, this is hurting my brain.  Needs more thinking.


Nerjin:  That's not what I meant.  You suggested this team.  Later, you said you didn't want NQT on Ford's proposed team.  Leaf asked you who you would replace NQT with, and you said me or Dariush.  This contradicts your original team suggestion.  Why myself or Dariush then instead of following your prior team suggestion for a replacement?


Tiruin:

Light Scum: Leafsnail
Medium Scum: Zombie Urist*, Nerjin**
Strong Scum: Tiruin

I'd like to ask why you aren't trying to clear the light scum but I believe you're acting mostly on gut read here.

Leaf's been giving me a nagging negative gut feeling for quite some time.  I can't nail anything specific to him, but I keep feeling like he's leading us around, and perhaps slightly buddying me.  It's hard to say- he's slippery.  I cite Prince's Guard if you're not sure what I mean.

Still,

Strong Town:  [ToonyMan] Dariush
Light Town: Ford

Why the two in no brackets? Explanation behind them and their relation with scum?

Dariush is hunting fairly well, and I again cite the fact that he checked back on Nerjin to see how many teams he rolled for his random team.  I don't think scum would have posted that.

Ford is backing his posts up with logic and reason that seems sound, and I believe his vote trick was a townie one.  A secret downvote is far more likely to bite scum in the ass than a secret upvote.

No relations to scum for them for you.

Spoiler: Why? (click to show/hide)

Because a secret upvote can win the game.  All a secret downvote does is delay the game and give town a good idea that the sent team was all rebel.

Hey, scumbag. I think you forgot Deathsword, eh?

How is this relevant to Leaf's argument at all?

That's true.  But he's dead and scum, so who cares about him?  All that matters are the three spies alive now.

Smooth move, tiger. Eliminate ToonyMan because of a slip.

This moves beyond irrelevance and into "What the hell are you talking about?"

Look at Nerjin. He is flailing. You think scum would out themselves that easily?

And that's somewhere between a deflection and WIFOM.


Leaf:

- Because of this, I believe that all members of the scumteam must have upvoted.  This means that the three spies must be among the following four players:
notquitethere
Toonyman
Tiruin
zombie urist
- Out of these four players, only one was on the failed first mission: Tiruin.  Only one was on the second failed mission: zombie urist.  And only one was on the third, attempted failed mission: notquitethere.  This is the scumteam.

See my objection to that line of thought above.  If that's the scum team, then why did two of them downvote Dariush's team?


Toony:

Spoiler: If the scum team is Zombie Urist, Tiruin, NQT (and Deathsword) this is how the votes would look (click to show/hide)

blah

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

This is a nice way of looking at the data (and I used it myself while doing the stream of consciousness-style review above), but what conclusions are you drawing from it?


On the subject of not drawing conclusions from it, Tiruin:

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

I've always voted on my own volition, for the record.

Toony didn't accuse you (or anyone) of anything.  He only vaguely implied it might be scummy.  But you jump right out and deny any connection.  Why?  This is Suspiciously Specific Denial, right here.


NQT:  Leaf's right on one thing- you've gone from Wordy McAnalysis to Lurky Lou.  What's your take on things?

[Captain Ford]

...basically, I think you made an attempt to play into my preconceptions and failed miserably. And now that I think about it ... that might explain a lot of your actions throughout the game that have been puzzling me.

I don't care about your preconceptions, except to the extent that I want you to drop them because you're defending the scumteam.

Eh. That was a very arrogant thing for me to say, in retrospect. (Playing into 'my preconceptions', like they're more important than everyone else's)

The biggest thing is that you haven't been helping me or others find flaws in our arguments or reads. You're content to let us struggle and flail about. Winning as a rebel requires collaboration, but winning as a spy requires confusion. All along, you've been seeding confusion while discouraging discussion.

This just isn't true.  You haven't provided any analysis in support of this, so I presume you added this on just to try and make yourself feel better about your "Leafsnail is a spy" theory.  Don't.

Fair enough. If I find the time, I'll do a complete analysis. This opinion was formed mostly at the start of the game, where you were playing very passively and did a lot of fingering scum and criticizing but very little questioning or investigation.

I don't know you well enough to know if this is simply your playstyle or not. But simply put, of all the players, you're the easiest one for me to believe is a spy.

@Nerjin:

Doubt is something that's ok to have but UGLY to show. If you doubt or have second thoughts, DON'T DISPLAY IT.

Yeah, I know that, and I've been thinking it too. That's mostly how I was able to convince myself he was town when I approved the second mission team with him on it.

But it's hard to find that applicable when I've been able to sense it in 7 of the 8 other players, but not him. That guide is written for newbies who have little confidence and a lot of doubt. There's a time for expressing doubt and uncertainty, and personally I find it to be a very strong town tell when someone changes their mind in a believable fashion.

PPE: Toaster

[Captain Ford]

@Toaster:

Spoiler: Toaster on Tiruin (click to show/hide)

Hey, scumbag. I think you forgot Deathsword, eh?

How is this relevant to Leaf's argument at all?

That's true.  But he's dead and scum, so who cares about him?  All that matters are the three spies alive now.

Smooth move, tiger. Eliminate ToonyMan because of a slip.

This moves beyond irrelevance and into "What the hell are you talking about?"

Look at Nerjin. He is flailing. You think scum would out themselves that easily?

And that's somewhere between a deflection and WIFOM.

I second this. I dunno what Tiruin is doing, but I'm wondering if he isn't confused about the number of spies again. That doesn't explain why he pulled ToonyMan out of the blue, though.

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

I've always voted on my own volition, for the record.

Although this I understand. Toony implied that he and NQT voted together, so he was clarifying that it was a coincidence.

[ToonyMan]

I can confirm that my flavor mentions that I was in a team with Ford or something. However, I specifically asked GG about this and he said that this is in no way indicative of his alignment.

Okay.

EBWODP: 'him picking the same scumteam as LS did before him' means 'Toony picking the same scumteam as LS did before LS did'.

So if all evidence points to a fact, it's wrong for multiple people to state that?  If Leafsnail said his scumteam first I would become unable to say it as well?

Toony:

Spoiler: If the scum team is Zombie Urist, Tiruin, NQT (and Deathsword) this is how the votes would look (click to show/hide)

blah

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

This is a nice way of looking at the data (and I used it myself while doing the stream of consciousness-style review above), but what conclusions are you drawing from it?

You're right, the second mission that went out proposed by Dariush would have 2/3rd the scum team down-voting it.  If we based scumreads on how people voted then let's update my older post from here:

(please note that this is the first mission where we don't actually know for sure there was even a spy on the team)
If there was at least one spy on the newest mission [this is what I believe]:
The 50%ers
ToonyMan - right 1/2 (first/third)
Nerjin - right 1/2 (third/fourth)
Dariush - right 1/2 (second/fourth)
Captain Ford - right 1/2 (first/fourth)
Leafsnail - right 1/2 (first/fourth)
Toaster - right 1/2 (first/fourth)

The 25%er
notquitethere - right 1/4 (third)
Tiruin - right 1/4 (third)
Zombie Urist - right 1/4 (first)

This is a hilariously obvious result, but I will state very clearly that Zombie Urist is definitely scum, no question in my mind.  My first suspicions begin here where I lump him with Dariush and Leafsnail, but he's never really gone away from my scum team.  What's most damning for me is that he has always up-voted probable or definite spy teams except the first which was universally panned anyway.  I agree with LS that he was going for a quick win before Ford pulled the rug under his feet.

NQT and Tiruin are also 25%ers, not the same as ZU but they are together.  You could even say they had the audacity to up-vote that first RNG'd team.

If the the team proposed was actually all rebels:
The 75%ers
ToonyMan - right 3/4 (first/third/fourth)

The 50%ers
Tiruin - right 1/2 (third/fourth)
notquitethere - right 1/2 (third/fourth)
Zombie Urist - right 1/2 (first/fourth)

The 25%ers
Nerjin - right 1/3 (third)
Dariush - right 1/3 (second)
Captain Ford - right 1/3 (first)
Leafsnail - right 1/3 (first)
Toaster - right 1/3 (first)

...Besides bringing me into god-tier territory this also separates Tiruin/NQT/ZU very very clearly again.  Because if this team actually was all rebels that would clear Captain Ford, ToonyMan, NQT, and Nerjin.  Thus ZU is still totally a spy and Tiruin is still suspicious.

So I think we're getting a general idea of who the scum team are, but we're probably wrong on one of the players at least.  ZU is my sure bet for scum so I don't want any team he proposes or him on any team.

Funny enough, since I believe the spies will always sabotage this almost completely clears Leafsnail, Dariush, and Ford in my eyes.  I can't put the stamp down on that though, since Dariush is right that spies could just laylow with a plan schemed beforehand.

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

I've always voted on my own volition, for the record.

Although this I understand. Toony implied that he and NQT voted together, so he was clarifying that it was a coincidence.

Tiruin didn't really need to clarify that, though.

[Nerjin]

Nerjin:  That's not what I meant.  You suggested this team.  Later, you said you didn't want NQT on Ford's proposed team.  Leaf asked you who you would replace NQT with, and you said me or Dariush.  This contradicts your original team suggestion.  Why myself or Dariush then instead of following your prior team suggestion for a replacement?

I don't see how it contradicts any original team suggestion. If you're talking about the random thing it was just that... random.

As for why I'd want you or Jackass McGee I figure you both seem really town oriented with good scum-hunting goes. In the end I trust that the two of you are town.

[Captain Ford]

Leafsnail:

So... is this basically proof that Nerjin isn't a spy?  If he were a spy he could've just won with basically no risk.  Captain Ford's plan seems stupid but the same logic applies to him.

Uh, no. It is completely possible that scum-Nerjin didn't want to risk upvoting a team a town-Nerjin would have downvoted (like ZU did) and thus prolong the game for a day while safeguarding himself with WIFOM.

What's the risk meant to be?  That we'd work out he was scum after the game had already ended with a spy victory?  In any case I don't think you can explain the ZU/NQT vote jumps if Nerjin is a spy.

What the fuck, man. The risk is that somebody like me would pull exactly what I just pulled, and he'd be stuck with a vote that clashes with his camouflage.

Yes.  And that's exactly what happened.  So what's your point?  That only rebels could make a stupid mistake like that?

No, that's not what happened. Nerjin downvoted. With the quote tree reconstructed, perhaps you can see why I said that.

You need to get a scumread on an actual spy or else your vote is a dead loss.

I think I did.

But more importantly ... you're willing to not send yourself? Are you nuts?

I'd rather get a rebel team passed now rather than give the spies two goes at making teams.  I don't think I can get a majority with me on the team, so that means I'm probably not going to be on it.

Hmm...alright, after looking at the turn order, I get what you're saying here.

[Captain Ford]

"I personally would have been" doesn't mean that everyone would have been.  I didn't consider the possibility that you were a townie pulling a ridiculous gambit (which could've torpedo'd an all rebel team and made you look like a spy), according to your logic), so I would've probably gone for it.

Just found this. That's interesting.

And I'll admit that yeah, if I assume you're a rebel, every analysis I've used leads to the people you're highlighting. That would pretty solidly put the scumteam as ZU, Tiruin and either ToonyMan or NQT.

[Leafsnail]

@Toaster: I don't think your objection works.  Spies would know a mission is going to fail, so they might as well distance themselves from it if they can (the vote passed anyway without them).  The exception to this is when the spies are one round away from victory (as they are now).

If we assume that the last team had a spy on it and every spy upvoted it, the spy team would then be Tiruin, ZU, and either NQT or Toony.

YES EXACTLY (only I don't think it's Toony).  I still haven't been presented with any other credible explanation.

@CF: Oh right, Nerjin.  I thought it was re: ZU (the guy who actually tried to jump onboard the vote).  That stuff is irrelevant now anyway, Nerjin is town because, as you say, me being a rebel "would pretty solidly put the scumteam as ZU, Tiruin and either ToonyMan or NQT".  I know I'm a rebel and Nerjin isn't one of those people, so he's town.

Every analysis leads to the people I'm highlighting even if you don't assume I'm a rebel - you're just assuming I'm a spy based on a dislike of me expressing certainty (hint I and most other mafia players do this in every game it's to make people listen to you) and therefore wrong about everything.

Anyway, the team.
Captain Ford
Nerjin
Toaster
Dariush

This is the best compromise I can manage.  I need five of the six town votes to pass it.
- I will vote in favour
- I don't see any reason for Toony to vote against it (note: if NQT is somehow town instead of ToonyMan that shouldn't matter, as far as I can tell this team fits his reads too)
- Nerjin should be able to vote for it if he logically thinks about what ZU's vote jump actually means, and stops the weird doublethinky "ZU and CF are scum who jumped in opposite directions for some reason"
- As far as I can tell Toaster should be able to vote for it, since it fits his reads
- Dariush is blacklisting four people in a 3 scum game, if he can unblacklist Toaster (who I don't think he actually has any real argument against?) then he can upvote this
- If CF can follow "every analysis" instead of his gut reaction to certainty in reads then he should be able to upvote