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[zombie urist]

In short, the reason I changed my vote to up is because I decided I trusted Ford's pick over LS'. I think its highly likely that LS is scum and thus I will not trust any team he proposes.

I do realize that NQT, whom I said was scummy earlier, was on the team Ford proposed, but after reviewing the evidence and with Ford's analysis, I don't think so any more. After a brief reread during class, I don't think Tiruin is that scummy either.

My now top choices are Toonyman, LS, and either Toaster/Dariush. Which I do realize is almost a total reversal from my previous statements. The largest contributing thing to this read is how quickly all 3 of them (Toony, LS, and Toaster) jumped at the Freedom Fighter BS. All 3 were equally quick to back down.

[Nerjin]

In short, the reason I changed my vote to up is because I decided I trusted Ford's pick over LS'. I think its highly likely that LS is scum and thus I will not trust any team he proposes.

I do realize that NQT, whom I said was scummy earlier, was on the team Ford proposed, but after reviewing the evidence and with Ford's analysis, I don't think so any more. After a brief reread during class, I don't think Tiruin is that scummy either.

My now top choices are Toonyman, LS, and either Toaster/Dariush. Which I do realize is almost a total reversal from my previous statements. The largest contributing thing to this read is how quickly all 3 of them (Toony, LS, and Toaster) jumped at the Freedom Fighter BS. All 3 were equally quick to back down.

I'm calling BS on all of this. LS pick wasn't up for voting Ford's was. What exactly did Ford or NQT say to change your mind?

Total reversal indeed. Flailing scum lies is more like it.

[Leafsnail]

I'm proposing a team tomorrow.  If anyone has any input to offer please do so now.

[notquitethere]

My main reason for upvoting the team was that I had was convinced, for better or for worse that Ford was Town and as he's had time to give this game more analytical attention than I, I was essentially trusting his reads. Are we convinced by Toonyman's and Tiruin's reason for voting?

Leafsnail, I don't know if you're scum or town but know that I'm not having you on a team for the third time so don't bother putting yourself forward.

(Pfp- Been out all day and it's 2AM here- hopefully tommorrow I can have a proper read of things)

[Captain Ford]

I'm breaking this up into two posts because of how ungodly huge it got.

Leafsnail:

Spoiler: Director's Cut (click to show/hide)

- I think I get Captain Ford's explanation now.  Essentially his aim was to try and catch the scumteam making a move.  He succeeded (although I still think it was a kindof bad idea because if one more rebel had approved that team we would have lost already)

Yeah, that's basically correct. But I want to reiterate that I did like that team. I only pulled this gambit when it looked like it wouldn't pass. And if the team was entirely rebels as I thought/hoped it was, then there was no risk.

- The scumteam have some kind of signal.  I don't know what it is, but it would make sense for them to have organized a "We're all going to upvote this team and win the game, regardless of what we say in the thread" signal.  The signal was activated because 2 townies (Toony, Captain Ford) indicated that they'd be willing to vote in favour of a team with a spy in it, and they didn't take into account the possibility that a rebel would go against their stated vote.

I really don't think so. That's a really specific situation, and is thinking way further ahead than I think anyone was at the time. And if that did come up, I personally would have wanted to be in a much better position before launching a gambit like that.

And I, personally, would have been paranoid about a townie changing their vote just in the hopes of catching spies doing this. Which is totally validated by the fact that I did it.

- This is why zombie urist inexplicably upvoted in spite of his stated opposition to the team - with the game finished, it wouldn't matter what we thought of him afterwards.  I don't think him the idea of him taking independent action makes sense because NQT never stated an opinion for or against the team, so he'd have no way of knowing whether he'd be the swing vote or not on his own.

Unless he's a rebel, and he actually had a change of heart, like I discuss below.

Uh, no. It is completely possible that scum-Nerjin didn't want to risk upvoting a team a town-Nerjin would have downvoted (like ZU did) and thus prolong the game for a day while safeguarding himself with WIFOM.

What's the risk meant to be?  That we'd work out he was scum after the game had already ended with a spy victory?  In any case I don't think you can explain the ZU/NQT vote jumps if Nerjin is a spy.

What the fuck, man. The risk is that somebody like me would pull exactly what I just pulled, and he'd be stuck with a vote that clashes with his camouflage.

That's so blindingly obvious I can't believe you missed it.

Captain Ford
ToonyMan
Nerjin
...Leafsnail?  I'm slightly hesitant still.  But definitely not Tiruin.  Dariush might work.  Definitely not NQT or ZU.

This would be acceptable, but I can be somewhat flexible now the scumteam is pretty much nailed.

Lessee...yeah, it would, wouldn't it.

Let me translate:

Rebel
Rebel
Rebel
...Spy?  I'm slightly hesitant still.  But definitely not Rebel.  Spy might work.  Definitely not Rebel or Rebel.

There's alternate translations of course. (Dariush has been almost perfectly in synch with me for much of the game -- but the way he's been getting his reads has been different from me. I'm still not sure how to read him)

This is the scumteam.

...

You are so totally a spy now. (Well, you were always a spy. Now it's just obvious)

1. Where did this idea of a signal come from? I specifically said I didn't think they were communicating. That kind of thing might be common on mafiascum but not so much here.
2. You don't critically examine the evidence for flaws or other explanations. Instead, you jump to conclusions and immediately use this new development to paint out the entire scumteam.
3. Despite not hearing from either me or ZU, you're so certain you're right that you prominently put the announcement "This is the scumteam" in bold text.

This is all made worse by the fact you're the new organizer. You should be scrutinizing every detail you're using to build your team rather than seizing on something and running with it as far as you can. I mean, ZU's posts are pretty freaking tiny. It took me all of five minutes to bring up the lurkertracker and go over all his posts since he declared his opposition to a team with NQT and Nerjin on it.

But more importantly ... you're willing to not send yourself? Are you nuts?

I'm proposing a team tomorrow.  If anyone has any input to offer please do so now.

Is this helpful?


Nerjin: What's gotten into you? Flipping out at Dariush and getting all jumpy on me and ZU. I can kind of understand Dariush, but wow. Neither of us had had a chance to post before you made a snap decision about us. Jump the gun much?

PPE: Now that I think about it, Tiruin lost his cool with Dariush too. I guess I just have a thick skin. (too much time on /b/, I guess)

Total reversal indeed. Flailing scum lies is more like it.

Maybe, maybe not. Take a look at this:


Concerning zombie urist:

Spoiler: Progression (click to show/hide)

This is where he called out his vote:

There's no way I'm voting up a team with both Nerjin and NQT.

He's pretty certain here, but then...

Yeah I don't think so.

Ford: can you elaborate on each of your choices? Or are you basing this completely on math?

He asks me why I made my choices. He specifically asks me if I'm basing it on math or on reads. He's feeling out how good my reasoning is, and if he was starting to think I might be right, this would be the next logical step.

Ehh...

How long do we have to get votes in?

...and then after reading my response, he's uncertain.

(If it's ambiguous, asking how long he has to vote means he hasn't decided how to vote yet, or that he has and he's thinking about changing his mind, or that he simply wants to see how others vote before he makes his decision)

He actually did signal his change of heart. There's more posts than these three. But these ones clearly show the gradual progression from certain to not. To me, self-doubt is a strong sign of a rebel.

It doesn't mean he's not a spy. It's entirely possible that his uncertainty was about whether or not to take the risk of exposing himself. But his flipvote didn't come totally out of the blue

In any case, his explanation (that he changed his mind and believed in me) is totally consistent with what he said and did the day before the vote. To me, the manner in which ZU was acting leading up to the vote says that he's a rebel who changed his mind at the last second. The fact that he regrets the post where he spoke out against a team with Nerjin and NQT means that he wasn't as sure as he made himself look. His lack of certainty is corroborated by his posts leading up to the vote tally.

So I'm reading ZU as rebel.

[Nerjin]

My main reason for upvoting the team was that I had was convinced, for better or for worse that Ford was Town and as he's had time to give this game more analytical attention than I, I was essentially trusting his reads. Are we convinced by Toonyman's and Tiruin's reason for voting?

Leafsnail, I don't know if you're scum or town but know that I'm not having you on a team for the third time so don't bother putting yourself forward.

(Pfp- Been out all day and it's 2AM here- hopefully tommorrow I can have a proper read of things)

So you mean to say that you're basically saying that you're going to just follow Ford because you have no time? Not really a good thing to admit, much less to do.

@Ford Dude-bro... WoT's seem to be your thing. Give me a moment to read all that and I'll reply.

[Captain Ford]

zombie urist:

The largest contributing thing to this read is how quickly all 3 of them (Toony, LS, and Toaster) jumped at the Freedom Fighter BS. All 3 were equally quick to back down.

... Are you sucking up to me?

Sorry, it's just that you're the first person to echo me on this point. Not even Nerjin backed me up on this, and he was the target.

Either way, I'd like to say that in my opinion, ToonyMan could just be oblivious, but I found the parroting by LS and Toaster to be much scummier.

Also, they didn't back down about it in the way you suggest. I just let it drop after I realized they weren't going to change their minds. Toaster backed down much later, as did ToonyMan, but LS has never changed his mind about Nerjin.

...Holy shit. Ford, you get the Official Medal of Epic Awesomeness. That's seriously an amazing gambit you pulled off. You have my respect, man.

Thanks, Dariush. That means a lot coming from you. (in all seriousness)

Now the big decision ... should I sig this?


notquitethere: Alright, yeah, that's pretty much what I figured your reasons were. You could just be parroting me, but since I already thought you thought that, I don't think you are.

This game is acutely unlike mafia in that it requires most of the town to trust one person, rather than most of the town to distrust one person. But it's still founded on "guilty until proven innocent".


Collected Reads:
Leafsnail - Spy. As certain as I can be.
Tiruin - Rebel. I'm pretty certain that Tiruin wouldn't pick a team with another spy on it if he was a spy, so if Leafsnail is a spy, Tiruin isn't.
Toaster - Unsure. Some mistakes. Some bad/shaky logic. Early on, when both Toaster and Leafsnail both supported Toony, I got the feeling that one of the two was a spy, but not both. At this point, I'm not sure they're not both spies.
Dariush - Unsure. He's been in synch with me for most of the game, but his methods are slightly different. I've had a bizarre reason for suspecting him since the start of the game -- he was mentioned in my role PM* Otherwise, it's hard for me to judge somebody who's basically identical to me but has less time to play.
Nerjin - Rebel? His recent behavior is pretty jumpy.
NQT - Rebel. I'm pretty sure NQT isn't playing me like he did in Mafia and Masons and Hackers**. For one thing, his sworn oath wasn't even addressed to me, it was addressed to Toony. And in that game, I started it long before I had a read on him, and he just played along.
ToonyMan - Rebel. If I'm right about ZU, the fact that no spies upvoted the team either means they were all already on it, or the team is all rebels.
Zombie Urist - Rebel.

* - See Spoiler:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The flavor was that we were both in another team of revolutionaries together, which was nearly wiped out in a mission gone bad, with us as the two sole survivors. I didn't mention it before, because it's pure flavor and I'm sure it has no bearing on his alignment (since this game has no power roles). It's also pure WIFOM fuel, and would almost certainly have created a lethal shitstorm if I'd brought it up early on. I'm sure Dariush thought the same thing. I'm also sure that Dariush was thinking, "please god, don't let Ford be stupid and bring that up." But at this point, I think it's past the point where bringing it up would create a problem.

Also, when Nerjin proposed both of us for the first mission, my eyes nearly popped out of my head O_O. But I didn't say anything, because it could only have been a coincidence (even if they were both spies, and Dariush told Nerjin about it in the 24 hours before the game start, he wouldn't be stupid enough to reveal it like that, or to put two spies in the first team). I later figured out that it's probably because we're right after each other in the turn order that GlyphGryph wrote us into each other's role PMs.

Anyways, if our behavior towards each other seems at all odd, that's probably why.

Also, as to why that flavor makes me wary of him -- well, just think about it. But in the end, it's just flavor.

I'm just pointing this out because we've been kind of distant from each other.

** See Spoiler

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Oh my god. Thank goodness that game is finally over. I've been tiptoeing around it since this game started every time I talked to NQT. I was worried that if I gave away that I suspected him because of how he played me, it'd ruin his chances in that game. That said, I did say this midway through Week 2, which I felt was ambiguous enough to be safe:

(I wish I could say what I really think about your post, but I'd have to break forum rules to do so.)

[Captain Ford]

Are we convinced by Toonyman's and Tiruin's reason for voting?

More or less. Read the end of my last post for the logic on why I think they're rebels.

@Ford Dude-bro... WoT's seem to be your thing. Give me a moment to read all that and I'll reply.

Sorry, I know I tend to be pretty verbose. But there's A LOT that happened after that last failed vote.

I try very hard to keep things compact ... and then I fail. :/

[Nerjin]

1. Where did this idea of a signal come from? I specifically said I didn't think they were communicating. That kind of thing might be common on mafiascum but not so much here.
2. You don't critically examine the evidence for flaws or other explanations. Instead, you jump to conclusions and immediately use this new development to paint out the entire scumteam.
3. Despite not hearing from either me or ZU, you're so certain you're right that you prominently put the announcement "This is the scumteam" in bold text.

In regards to #1 if you discount the idea only because it's uncommon than you're being a little foolish. It's always a possibility no matter how rare. I personally don't think it's what happened but I'm just saying.

Nerjin: What's gotten into you? Flipping out at Dariush and getting all jumpy on me and ZU. I can kind of understand Dariush, but wow. Neither of us had had a chance to post before you made a snap decision about us. Jump the gun much?

I'm on Dariush because he's gone way too far and has far surpassed my threshold for people being total jackasses. I don't care how respected he is on the forum. He's a good player sure, but I refuse to deal with him anymore.

I'm on ZU because of his DIRECT CONTRIDICTION of himself. If he had pointed it out prior to the vote being done, he had time, than I would have said "Alright, he changed his mind. What can ya really do?" BUT he did it in secret so it leads me to believe that he is a scum who tried to push the game into a victory by telling falsehoods to all of us. While you go on to point out reasons he 'may' have changed the fact of the matter is that he did so in secret. Making votes in secrets bespeaks an intent to trick the rest of the players. I'm not comfortable trusting someone who does that.

I'm on you because of your 'gambit'. You claim it was to trip up scum BECAUSE THE VOTE DIDN'T LOOK LIKE IT WOULD PASS. I'm more to the point of thinking that you switched because you wanted to protect yourself from scrutiny when it didn't pass.

One last thing though: STOP the WoT please. It's hard to keep up with everything when I have to sort through about twenty things to find what you're saying.

[Leafsnail]

@CF: Ugh.

"I personally would have been" doesn't mean that everyone would have been.  I didn't consider the possibility that you were a townie pulling a ridiculous gambit (which could've torpedo'd an all rebel team and made you look like a spy), according to your logic), so I would've probably gone for it.

What the fuck, man. The risk is that somebody like me would pull exactly what I just pulled, and he'd be stuck with a vote that clashes with his camouflage.

Yes.  And that's exactly what happened.  So what's your point?  That only rebels could make a stupid mistake like that?

1. Where did this idea of a signal come from? I specifically said I didn't think they were communicating. That kind of thing might be common on mafiascum but not so much here.

I can actually think on my own - I don't require you to suggest an idea before I have it.  It's not common here because we have daytalk in almost all games (why signal when you can just like, tell the other mafia members what you are doing), but I think Tiruin, ZU and NQT are smart enough to come up with an idea as simple as a signal.

2. You don't critically examine the evidence for flaws or other explanations. Instead, you jump to conclusions and immediately use this new development to paint out the entire scumteam.

I could not see any other credible explanations.  I have still not seen any other credible explanations.

3. Despite not hearing from either me or ZU, you're so certain you're right that you prominently put the announcement "This is the scumteam" in bold text."

wait do I need to ask your permission before using bold text now

Seriously what the fuck does this mean?

This is all made worse by the fact you're the new organizer. You should be scrutinizing every detail you're using to build your team rather than seizing on something and running with it as far as you can. I mean, ZU's posts are pretty freaking tiny. It took me all of five minutes to bring up the lurkertracker and go over all his posts since he declared his opposition to a team with NQT and Nerjin on it.

Huh?  I read ZU's posts.  What do you want me to do with them?  I think telling everybody who the scumteam is is actually a pretty good contribution for an organizer, personally.

There's alternate translations of course.

You need to get a scumread on an actual spy or else your vote is a dead loss.

But more importantly ... you're willing to not send yourself? Are you nuts?

I'd rather get a rebel team passed now rather than give the spies two goes at making teams.  I don't think I can get a majority with me on the team, so that means I'm probably not going to be on it.

Jesus you write too much I'm responding to this stuff later.  If you cut out all the bad points that make no sense your posts would be a lot shorter.

My main reason for upvoting the team was that I had was convinced, for better or for worse that Ford was Town and as he's had time to give this game more analytical attention than I, I was essentially trusting his reads. Are we convinced by Toonyman's and Tiruin's reason for voting?

So your claim is that you were basically sheeping Ford's reads, and decided you wouldn't mention this until after the vote had already happened and after the game was already over with a spy victory.  Reaaalllyyy.

[Leafsnail]

I really don't get you Ford.  You pull a ballsy gambit to try and catch scum votejumping.  You catch scum votejumping.  You read them as town because they very vaguely expressed something that might be interpretable as self-doubt if you sortof squint at it.

I'm certainly not seeing a "natural progression" when his second post still clearly states he's against it and the third is just asking about the deadline.

[Captain Ford]

One last thing though: STOP the WoT please. It's hard to keep up with everything when I have to sort through about twenty things to find what you're saying.

Alright, I'll pare this down for you.

You claim it was to trip up scum BECAUSE THE VOTE DIDN'T LOOK LIKE IT WOULD PASS.

It makes no sense for me to upvote in a situation where the team can only pass if spies want it to.

Your suspicion makes no sense in light of the fact that I'm the one who kicked your ass into gear.

You wanted an extension. I wanted more time myself, but also figured I could get it without burning our one extension.

I really don't get you Ford.  You pull a ballsy gambit to try and catch scum votejumping.  You catch scum votejumping.  You read them as town because they very vaguely expressed something that might be interpretable as self-doubt if you sortof squint at it.

I'm certainly not seeing a "natural progression" when his second post still clearly states he's against it and the third is just asking about the deadline.

You made an assumption about how I would interpret the results. That ZU is a spy was not the only possible interpretation. I was aware of this when I made the decision to downvote -- people might upvote that I didn't expect, but I was happy with the team failing because NQT comes right after you and the extra time for discussion would be valuable.

ZU made that post BEFORE I proposed the team. 24 hours is more than enough time for one to change their mind. The fact that you didn't notice or consider this is simply inexcusable for someone who's been on the ball with your analyses as much as you have.

...basically, I think you made an attempt to play into my preconceptions and failed miserably. And now that I think about it ... that might explain a lot of your actions throughout the game that have been puzzling me.

The biggest thing is that you haven't been helping me or others find flaws in our arguments or reads. You're content to let us struggle and flail about. Winning as a rebel requires collaboration, but winning as a spy requires confusion. All along, you've been seeding confusion while discouraging discussion.

[Nerjin]

One last thing though: STOP the WoT please. It's hard to keep up with everything when I have to sort through about twenty things to find what you're saying.

Alright, I'll pare this down for you.

You claim it was to trip up scum BECAUSE THE VOTE DIDN'T LOOK LIKE IT WOULD PASS.

It makes no sense for me to upvote in a situation where the team can only pass if spies want it to.

Your suspicion makes no sense in light of the fact that I'm the one who kicked your ass into gear.

You wanted an extension. I wanted more time myself, but also figured I could get it without burning our one extension.

And I'd like to take some time to thank you for kicking my ass into gear as you put it but that doesn't exclude you from anything.

It makes sense to vote, however, on whether you think the team is filled with rebels or scum. You claim a gambit I doubt it. There's really no way either of us can prove anything without knowing your alignment. I'm leaning more towards scum personally. However you said it yourself. You only attempted the gambit because you felt the thing wouldn't pass. I'm sure that this is a simple town camoflauge on your part.

[ToonyMan]

The flavor was that we were both in another team of revolutionaries together, which was nearly wiped out in a mission gone bad, with us as the two sole survivors. I didn't mention it before, because it's pure flavor and I'm sure it has no bearing on his alignment (since this game has no power roles). It's also pure WIFOM fuel, and would almost certainly have created a lethal shitstorm if I'd brought it up early on. I'm sure Dariush thought the same thing. I'm also sure that Dariush was thinking, "please god, don't let Ford be stupid and bring that up." But at this point, I think it's past the point where bringing it up would create a problem.

Dariush should confirm this.

Spoiler: If the scum team is Zombie Urist, Tiruin, NQT (and Deathsword) this is how the votes would look (click to show/hide)

Proposed by Nerjin:
Tiruin
Deathsword
Toaster

Nerjin: Up
Dariush: Up
notquitethere: Up
Tiruin: Up

ToonyMan: Down
Captain Ford: Down
Toaster: Down
Leafsnail: Down
Zombie Urist: Down
Deathsword: Down

***

Proposed by Tiruin:
Tiruin
Leafsnail
Toaster

Nerjin: Up
ToonyMan: Up
Zombie Urist: Up
notquitethere: Up
Tiruin: Up
Leafsnail: Up
Captain Ford: Up

Dariush: Down
Toaster: Failed to Vote. Effective Vote: Down

***

Proposed by Dariush:
Leafsnail
Dariush
Zombie Urist
Captain Ford

Toaster: Up
Dariush: Up
Zombie Urist: Up
Captain Ford: Up
Leafsnail: Up

notquitethere: Down
Tiruin: Down
Nerjin: Down
ToonyMan: Down

***

Team proposed by Captain Ford:
Captain Ford
ToonyMan
notquitethere
Nerjin

notquitethere: Up
ToonyMan: Up
Tiruin: Up
Zombie Urist: Up

Dariush: Down
Nerjin: Down
Toaster: Down
Leafsnail: Down
Captain Ford: Down

Pretty interesting, Tiruin and NQT have always voted together.  Although that's not really damning, since for example Leafsnail and Captain Ford have always voted together as well (Toaster would be in this group too if he didn't fail to vote the 2nd round).

[Captain Ford]

Leafsnail: Somehow I entirely missed your big post above the smaller one.

Point was, basically, you're way more confident in your reads than I'm ready to believe anyone can be. Especially since I can't see how you came to your conclusions.

And yeah, I'm verbose. I'm not good at expressing myself in few words. When I see you guys do it, it's like magic to me.