I wrote this post yesterday, but then decided not to post it right away to see who, if anyone, worked it out on their own. It would have been reply #53 if I had posted it then.
1. There is a 40% chance that Nerjin is a spy. If that is the case, then allowing him to put himself on the mission doesn't matter since he can guarantee a spy will be on it either way.
2. There is a 60% chance that Nerjin is a rebel. He has to pick two people other than himself.
a. If he is allowed to include himself, then he has to pick two others. The odds of them both being rebels is 5/18 or 27.78% (5/9 and 4/8, respectively)
b. If he cannot include himself, then he has to pick three others. The odds of them all being rebels is 5/42 or 11.9% (5/9, 4/8 and 3/7, respectively)
6/10 * 5/9 * 4/8 = 120 / 720 = 1 / 6
6/10 * 5/9 * 4/8 * 3/7 = 360 / 5040 = 1 / 14
To use a metaphor, if the ten players are a deck of cards, by forcing Nerjin to not pick himself, we're effectively drawing one more card from the deck. Which seems dumb considering that we only have to draw one spy to fail the mission.
The numbers don't tell us how likely it is that a mission will succeed, only how likely it is to get a team of only rebels based on whether or not Nerjin includes himself in the team. It is entirely possible to get a team made up entirely of spies, and have none of them sabotage the mission.
The only benefit of getting a team made up entirely of rebels is that the mission cannot fail. It doesn't really give us any information about the alignment of the players.
It's possible for a spy to choose three rebels just to screw with us. It's also possible for a rebel to choose three spies, they all choose to sabotage the mission, and then the game is pretty much over.
I crunched the numbers, and from a purely probability based perspective:
- If we allow Nerjin to include himself, then we have a 1 in 6 chance (exactly) of getting a team of all rebels.
- If we don't allow Nerjin to include himself, then we have a 1 in 14 chance (exactly) of getting a team of all rebels.
Our chances of getting an all-rebel team are more than doubled if we allow Nerjin to include himself, but it's still not a great chance. It definitely shows that there is a very distinct difference between the two choices, and they are definitely not the same.
I do think Dariush has a good point. If Nerjin is a rebel, then putting himself on the team won't help us in finding spies. If he's a spy, then his choices may be made more revealing. I see Toonyman's point, and it's not a bad one.
...I almost think we should reject the team just to see what the next person on the list comes up with. It kind of feels gratuitous, but it is more information overall.
I'm posting it as is because I realize I've been relying on that argument for some of the things I've said, but never posted them in the first place. I hope this clarifies some things.
What I think it says most is that there's a tradeoff between chance of success and usefulness in identifying spies.
Leafsnail is correct that a totally random team is bad because we can't infer anything from it about the organizer.
Interestingly, a totally random team has the same chance of being all rebels as if the leader was allowed to send himself. (At the time I suggested it, I mistakenly thought a totally random team was better ... somehow)
Actually, a totally random team is slightly better if I account for the fact that I'm a rebel, because then Nerjin's chance of being a rebel is lower. (and if I were a spy, then the probabilities would be totally meaningless to me, so there's no point in considering that possibility)
I think this team ought to be rejected. Seeing what Tiruin comes up with will be worthwhile anyway.
I'd also like to point out that the organizer is the one who drafts the team, but doesn't have to be one to pick it. There's no reason we can't designate someone arbitrarily to pick the team, and force the organizer draft it.
But I also think that's a really, really bad idea. I think that the way it puts the spotlight on the organizer is really valuable for scumhunting, and we should use that opportunity to put pressure on the organizer to choose a team and come up with good reasons for it. Since there's no lynching, trying to keep track of ten people at once in this setting is exhausting. I think the moving spotlight will really help to make sure no one lurks the game away.
PPE: Dariush, ToonyMan, Nerjin
ToonyMan:There are multiple problems with your assertion that Nerjin is a spy and me and Dariush are spies by association.
First of all, spies want to be on teams with rebels, because they want to be associated with rebels, both to cast suspicion on them and to clear themselves.
Secondly, if his first proposal fails, then it's very likely the people he put up the first time will be excluded from any other teams that are assembled, which would greatly hurt the chances of getting a spy on the mission. I don't think Nerjin would take that kind of risk.
Because you don't know the name of your role? I would have accepted some other rebel-sounding name (it's possible GG wrote up multiple names to shake the town up), but with that strike-through and the fact I highly doubt GG called you a 'Trustworthy Player' makes me doubt you extremely.
*stares in disbelief*
Given all the criticism of how Nerjin picked his team, I am curious about how his critics would pick teams. (And by the way,
he did explain it. It's a bit buried, but it was essentially "because they're active. So if there's a sabotage, we have a chance to deduce who it was from their behavior").
Leafsnail: Who, other than yourself, would you most want to see go on this mission? Why?
NQT: If you had to organize a team of 3 right now, who would it be and why?
ToonyMan: If you couldn't choose yourself, what team of 3 would you like to see go on the mission, and why?
Toaster: Who would you pick for this team, and why?
Incidentally, I would pick players who are coming up soon in the turn order, so we can put them under the spotlight while the results of the last mission are still fresh in our mind. For this reason, sending the team leader is bad move, because the turn order would have to go all the way around again before he ends up in the spotlight.
Assuming Tiruin was organizing, my picks would be:
Deathsword,
Dariush,
Captain Ford
And yes, I want to be on the mission.
PPE: ZU, Nerjin
Oh my god. Would you please spoiler those quote pyramids already.
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Topic: Viva la Revolucion! Game Over, man, Game over! (Read 127105 times)