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[MrCelt]

Assuming we have one mafia left, we have a ML, right?

[Urist Imiknorris]

Don't make me quote myself again, everybody.

Or what, you'll turn the car around?  >_>

The number of nested quotes will double each time.

[Shakerag]

Assuming we have one mafia left, we have a ML, right?

[We have a whatnow?  If you're trying to say what I think you are, five players with one of those being mafia is neither LYLO nor MYLO.]

[MrCelt]

Assuming we have one mafia left, we have a ML, right?

[We have a whatnow?  If you're trying to say what I think you are, five players with one of those being mafia is neither LYLO nor MYLO.]

Mislynch, I meant. - We can mislynch and get to Three way LYLO. - probably good to use our lynch on our suspect.

[zombie urist]

Day ends Monday, November 19th at 9:00 PM PST.
Day ends in ~10 hours.

1 to extend.
0 to shorten.

[Reverie]

Everything was so quiet this weekend. Sorry, ZU.

Jim:

Flandre, what's your case on MrCelt?

An inconsistency in MrCelt's reasoning, which I will reiterate briefly:

Shakerag/Groovester Appear to both be fairly aggressive towards eachother, When I read I noticed them clashing a lot. - Shakerag was voted by Captain, who flipped mafia. Seems fairly clear, Groovester on the other hand does not have this advantage on their side.

MrCelt claimed that Shakerag held an advantage over you due to Ford's vote on Shakerag. He saw the two of you in opposition, and stated that you were lacking in that same advantage.

I responded by calling out on the WIFOM and asking a question to better understand how Ford's vote on Shakerag could influence his read on both Shakerag and yourself:

Did Ford's vote on Shakerag compel you into thinking that Shakerag was town? With Jim and Shakerag in opposition (as you say), does this have any influence on your read of Jim as well?

The first sentence in his answer caught my attention, and I bold for emphasis:

Ford's vote on Shakerag does not say anything to me due to tactics such as bussing et cetera, if ford believed he may die, he could try such a tactic to effectively 'clear' Shakerag.

Summarily, my attack on MrCelt is centered around Shakerag's 'advantage' not existing if Ford's vote on Shakerag 'doesn't say anything to him'.

MrCelt:

I haven't voted yet as I don't find anyone particularly scummy. I was waiting for a few questions to be answered before I casted a vote.

Would you cast that vote if you still did not find someone scummy after the questions were answered? It looks like you would do it to avoid becoming an object of suspicion than to actually hunt scum.

Mislynch, I meant. - We can mislynch and get to Three way LYLO. - probably good to use our lynch on our suspect.

Given that you don't have a suspect, and as an addendum to my previous question:
Are you saying that we can afford to mislynch? Would you be willing to hold to a vote that is based mainly on the answers to recent questions?

[MrCelt]

Summarily, my attack on MrCelt is centered around Shakerag's 'advantage' not existing if Ford's vote on Shakerag 'doesn't say anything to him'.

Ford, if in times of peril, could vote his partner, and effectively clear him, useful later in the game.

Shakerag drove a lynch down on Ford, persuading others to join him. - If he could persuade people to vote Ford, it'd be safe to assume he could drive a lynch on anyone, so why would he choose his mafia partner?

Are you saying that we can afford to mislynch? Would you be willing to hold to a vote that is based mainly on the answers to recent questions?

We can afford to mislynch. It means there is a one in three chance of hitting mafia, instead of a one in four which would happen if we NL'd, right - also we'd eliminate the person we thought most scummy, so that's one scummy town gone that wouldn't be ML'd on LYLO.

Yes I would, definately. I have no indications other that a pretty certain feeling that shakerag is clear, so more questions answered the better.

[Shakerag]

Extend.

Come on, people.

[zombie urist]

Day extended to Wednesday.

[Jim Groovester]

Been busy with homework. Should be able to get in a post sometime this evening.

The forum 504ing all the time isn't going to help. I'd work on a post now but I don't want to wrangle with a temperamental forum.

[Jim Groovester]

Never mind here it is now.

I was waiting for a few questions to be answered before I casted a vote.

Which questions and why haven't you been more assertive in getting the answers to them, instead deciding to wait passively for them to come around, even extending without stating that they were the reason for it?

Mislynch, I meant. - We can mislynch and get to Three way LYLO. - probably good to use our lynch on our suspect.

Yes, that's exactly what it's for.

Speaking of suspects, who are yours?

Case on MrCelt

I still don't understand this.

What the fuck is this advantage both of you are talking about?

Shakerag, why are you voting me?

Because you scum.

Right, of course.

So do you have reasons for thinking I'm scum or is all you have questions?

-So in your professional opinion, you think Scottzar's actions (generally speaking, referring to his "case" on me) to be genuinely scummy as opposed to newbing it up? 

Yes.

You don't think so? Tell me how the stuff he's done is better explainable by him being a noob than him being scum.

-Also, how does Scottzar looking at me suspiciously after you questioned him (which was "Do you have anything bad to say about Shakerag?", let's note) peg him as scum? 

It's a scumtell, it doesn't peg him as scum. If it pegged him as scum I would have been shouting obscenities at him declaring him to be the scummiest person on the planet.

You can't deny that there's a stark shift in his attitude towards you between this post and this post. In the first, he's practically buddying up to you, which is what I was very indirectly getting at by saying if he had anything bad to say about you. And then, suddenly, in response to my question, he did. Except that the reasons he suddenly thinks you're scummy for are bad. If they were, I'd have a more relaxed opinion about this.

There could be an innocent explanation for all this, but I don't find that likely, and you have to admit that it's hella odd that it happened and in the way it did.

-Were he scum, what reasoning would he have to change his opinion of me (especially since he'd be the only one left)?

You mean, besides to avoid the accusation of buddying?

I can't say. This is WIFOM anyway. Maybe he thinks he can lynch you today or tomorrow, maybe he thinks he has a good case, maybe he did it just so he can say he attacked an IC and that's a dangerous move for scum, or maybe he's just misguided.

-Finally, why have you done no scumhunting (or even questioning, really) on kingfisher/borno/MrCelt at all?  Don't you think it would be a good idea to try and wrangle a read on this oft-replaced player slot?

Because they've been absent up until recently and I've had nothing to ask and I've been waiting to see what they produce on their own before I prod them aggressively about it.

[Everyone: Holidays are upon us (or at least some of us, I suppose), so everyone check in with estimated availability for the upcoming week or two.  I'll be out Thursday/Friday for sure, maybe posting at night if the stars align.  I might pop back in later today with an extend if it looks like we could use it.]

Thursday's probably a no go for me. Otherwise, I should be available.

[Jim Groovester]

Never mind here it is now.

I was waiting for a few questions to be answered before I casted a vote.

Which questions and why haven't you been more assertive in getting the answers to them, instead deciding to wait passively for them to come around, even extending without stating that they were the reason for it?

Mislynch, I meant. - We can mislynch and get to Three way LYLO. - probably good to use our lynch on our suspect.

Yes, that's exactly what it's for.

Speaking of suspects, who are yours?

Case on MrCelt

I still don't understand this.

What the fuck is this advantage both of you are talking about?

Shakerag, why are you voting me?

Because you scum.

Right, of course.

So do you have reasons for thinking I'm scum or is all you have questions?

-So in your professional opinion, you think Scottzar's actions (generally speaking, referring to his "case" on me) to be genuinely scummy as opposed to newbing it up? 

Yes.

You don't think so? Tell me how the stuff he's done is better explainable by him being a noob than him being scum.

-Also, how does Scottzar looking at me suspiciously after you questioned him (which was "Do you have anything bad to say about Shakerag?", let's note) peg him as scum? 

It's a scumtell, it doesn't peg him as scum. If it pegged him as scum I would have been shouting obscenities at him declaring him to be the scummiest person on the planet.

You can't deny that there's a stark shift in his attitude towards you between this post and this post. In the first, he's practically buddying up to you, which is what I was very indirectly getting at by saying if he had anything bad to say about you. And then, suddenly, in response to my question, he did. Except that the reasons he suddenly thinks you're scummy for are bad. If they were, I'd have a more relaxed opinion about this.

There could be an innocent explanation for all this, but I don't find that likely, and you have to admit that it's hella odd that it happened and in the way it did.

-Were he scum, what reasoning would he have to change his opinion of me (especially since he'd be the only one left)?

You mean, besides to avoid the accusation of buddying?

I can't say. This is WIFOM anyway. Maybe he thinks he can lynch you today or tomorrow, maybe he thinks he has a good case, maybe he did it just so he can say he attacked an IC and that's a dangerous move for scum, or maybe he's just misguided.

-Finally, why have you done no scumhunting (or even questioning, really) on kingfisher/borno/MrCelt at all?  Don't you think it would be a good idea to try and wrangle a read on this oft-replaced player slot?

Because they've been absent up until recently and I've had nothing to ask and I've been waiting to see what they produce on their own before I prod them aggressively about it.

[Everyone: Holidays are upon us (or at least some of us, I suppose), so everyone check in with estimated availability for the upcoming week or two.  I'll be out Thursday/Friday for sure, maybe posting at night if the stars align.  I might pop back in later today with an extend if it looks like we could use it.]

Thursday's probably a no go for me. Otherwise, I should be available.

[MrCelt]

Never mind here it is now.

I was waiting for a few questions to be answered before I casted a vote.

Many of them not my questions, most of them directed towards Scottzar who can no longer answer them. - His leaving leaves us in a tricky situation.

Yes, that's exactly what it's for.

Speaking of suspects, who are yours?

Flandre: He's not too scummy. He thinks I'm mafia, but is not trying to drive a bandwagon on myself, which makes me think he's town.

Opinion on Shakerag v. Jim?

Yourself, Jim: Was in an argument with shakerag, but appears to be ignoring it, instead choosing to get scottzar. I should think you'll be
back defending against shakerag now scottzar has gone.

Why did you not want an extension? it was quite clear nothing would be done if not extending, bringing us to 4way lylo, which is less advantageous than 3way lylo.

Shakerag: I have said earlier I think Shakerag is town, but his persistance in attacking Jim is rather suspicious

What IS this whole fiasco on Jim about? Surely you'd move on to another target you think is scummy, instead of this persistance?

Scottzar: It's a shame he left, I had a bone to pick with him.

[Reverie]

Scottzar's absence does put a damper on things, but he is only one player out of the five of us remaining. We can still keep busy while we wait for his replacement.

PPE: I've found that the reason MrCelt's responses did not match up as I've pointed out was due to a mix-up on my part. In my follow-up question, I've mistakenly confused Shakerag's vote on Ford as Ford voting Shakerag, so the 'advantages' skirmish is invalid.
I would unvote were it not for my renewed suspicion of him and his views on expendable lynches.

MrCelt:

Opinion on Shakerag v. Jim?

Shakerag's case on Jim was outlined where he gave reads on each of us several posts back. One moment while I fetch that...
Here it is:

Jim: Maybe scum.  Meta-analysis tells me his game is off and different from other BMs, but it also tells me that he's ass-high in schoolwork, which may explain some of that.  Don't like that he didn't vote by D2 end, and he doesn't seem to be hunting out scum very much to me.

I'm thinking Shakerag was trying to elicit a meaningful reaction out of Jim with a hunch/meta (namely, Jim's atypical play and lack of a vote at the end of D2, which really can't be used to apply direct pressure on its own), and switched his focus to Jim's current vote on Scottzar. I agree to Jim's points, though not really to the extent that I would find it worthy to stay my vote on Scottzar's pending replacement.

Two questions:

Scottzar: It's a shame he left, I had a bone to pick with him.

-Please elaborate. Do you have a case against him?
-You claim that today is expendable, but a mislynch favors scum however you look at it. Scum gladly settle for a mislynch, and apparently, so do you.  How would you connect those dots?


Jim:

Case on MrCelt

I still don't understand this.

What the fuck is this advantage both of you are talking about?

Shakerag's vote was on Ford when he was acci-lynched, which MrCelt claimed would factor in his choosing to lynch you over Shakerag, were it ever to come to that:

Advantage: Shakerag has something on his side that Jim does not, so If it came down to it on a lynch between the two then that'd be taken into account- However, Jim and shakerag are no longer arguing, and the attention is currently on Scottzar.

That was the WIFOMy advantage he was referring to.

Finally: is your case against Scottzar strong enough for you to want to hang him?

[MrCelt]

-You claim that today is expendable, but a mislynch favors scum however you look at it. Scum gladly settle for a mislynch, and apparently, so do you.  How would you connect those dots?

I would like to completely Disagree with you on a ML favouring the scum.

If we NL'd, we'd be at Four-Way Lylo, with our top suspect, who may not be mafia, probably being lynched.
If we Lynched, we'd be at three way, assuming our top suspect was not mafia.

In three way lylo, there is a 1/3 chance of killing scum, with our top suspects removed and more votes to read off of.
In four way lylo, there is a 1/4 chance of killing scum, with our top suspect probably kept alive by the mafia so we ML him into a mafia win.