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Author Topic: MIT and the end of the world  (Read 15846 times)

Eagle_eye

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MIT and the end of the world
« on: August 10, 2012, 12:43:53 am »

I'm sure many of you have seen this already, but take a look at this:
Smithsonian Article: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#
Comparison to real data: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
Summary of original report(looking for online copy of the full thing): http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~wggray/Teaching/His300/Illustrations/Limits-to-Growth.pdf



That's a graph representing the predictions of an MIT study from 1972, plotted against actual data. Looks like we're in for a bumpy ride.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2012, 01:06:03 am by Eagle_eye »
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Bdthemag

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2012, 12:45:07 am »

Well, at least I know some kind of collapse of society is going to happen in my lifetime now.
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G-Flex

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2012, 12:51:58 am »

The important, downward, parts of the predicted trend don't seem to be implied by the observed data since then at all. Mostly, they're just following the short-term trends already evident when that prediction was made.

I also have to wonder what assumptions were made here, especially regarding things like the (possible (we hope)) popularization of renewable energy.
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Heron TSG

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2012, 12:53:46 am »

I'm with G-Flex here: where are the downturns coming from, specifically? It's kinda hard to believe without an article or any actual numbers or anything.
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Eagle_eye

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2012, 12:54:44 am »

Well, the curve on the natural resources part seems to be roughly right, and that's what the whole collapse bit really hinges on. Perhaps we're in for it a bit later, but the general pattern seems right. Also, here's the article, I forgot to link it. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#
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G-Flex

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2012, 12:57:13 am »

Well, the curve on the natural resources part seems to be roughly right

I don't really buy that, though. The data since then seems to follow a constant, linear slope downward, if anything getting less steep, whereas the prediction relies on it getting more steep.
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Eagle_eye

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2012, 12:57:56 am »

It looks like it's steeper now to me..  :o
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Heron TSG

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2012, 12:58:07 am »

That article just says that there was a prediction 40 years ago and that they predicted an economic collapse. Anything specific, like those articles about how we only have ~550 gigatons of carbon pollution to go until we've entirely fucked over the world?
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G-Flex

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2012, 12:59:59 am »

Looking at the picture more closely, yeah, that slope is getting a little steeper with time, just not as much as predicted. Still, like I said, it probably doesn't take into account things like renewable sources or cleaner non-renewable energy, probably. Not that I'd have expected it to, since it's likely that convincing people we need those things was half the point.
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Flying Dice

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2012, 01:00:41 am »

Well, at least I know some kind of collapse of society is going to happen in my lifetime now.
Well, at least I know that I was able to contribute to the collapse of society in my lifetime now.  :P
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Eagle_eye

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2012, 01:01:53 am »

I'll try to find the original study.
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Eagle_eye

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2012, 01:03:15 am »

Ok, here's what I think is the report of the guy who did the comparison to real data. I didn't actually read it, because it's long and I'm tired.

http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
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Svarte Troner

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2012, 01:18:16 am »

So basically the world will become North Korea?
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Flying Dice

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2012, 01:19:41 am »

Except with (even) more starvation and fewer eerie formation-movements.
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darkrider2

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Re: MIT and the end of the world
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2012, 01:35:34 am »

Oh cool I'll get to live in the barren wastelands of post-civilization, and I'll be in my thirties too. Should be fun.

Time to go play borderlands again.
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