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[Eagle_eye]

I'm sure many of you have seen this already, but take a look at this:
Smithsonian Article: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#
Comparison to real data: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
Summary of original report(looking for online copy of the full thing): http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~wggray/Teaching/His300/Illustrations/Limits-to-Growth.pdf



That's a graph representing the predictions of an MIT study from 1972, plotted against actual data. Looks like we're in for a bumpy ride.

[Bdthemag]

Well, at least I know some kind of collapse of society is going to happen in my lifetime now.

[G-Flex]

The important, downward, parts of the predicted trend don't seem to be implied by the observed data since then at all. Mostly, they're just following the short-term trends already evident when that prediction was made.

I also have to wonder what assumptions were made here, especially regarding things like the (possible (we hope)) popularization of renewable energy.

[Heron TSG]

I'm with G-Flex here: where are the downturns coming from, specifically? It's kinda hard to believe without an article or any actual numbers or anything.

[Eagle_eye]

Well, the curve on the natural resources part seems to be roughly right, and that's what the whole collapse bit really hinges on. Perhaps we're in for it a bit later, but the general pattern seems right. Also, here's the article, I forgot to link it. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#

[G-Flex]

Well, the curve on the natural resources part seems to be roughly right

I don't really buy that, though. The data since then seems to follow a constant, linear slope downward, if anything getting less steep, whereas the prediction relies on it getting more steep.

[Eagle_eye]

It looks like it's steeper now to me.. 

[Heron TSG]

That article just says that there was a prediction 40 years ago and that they predicted an economic collapse. Anything specific, like those articles about how we only have ~550 gigatons of carbon pollution to go until we've entirely fucked over the world?

[G-Flex]

Looking at the picture more closely, yeah, that slope is getting a little steeper with time, just not as much as predicted. Still, like I said, it probably doesn't take into account things like renewable sources or cleaner non-renewable energy, probably. Not that I'd have expected it to, since it's likely that convincing people we need those things was half the point.

[Flying Dice]

Well, at least I know some kind of collapse of society is going to happen in my lifetime now.

Well, at least I know that I was able to contribute to the collapse of society in my lifetime now. 

[Eagle_eye]

I'll try to find the original study.

[Eagle_eye]

Ok, here's what I think is the report of the guy who did the comparison to real data. I didn't actually read it, because it's long and I'm tired.

http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf

[Svarte Troner]

So basically the world will become North Korea?

[Flying Dice]

Except with (even) more starvation and fewer eerie formation-movements.

[darkrider2]

Oh cool I'll get to live in the barren wastelands of post-civilization, and I'll be in my thirties too. Should be fun.

Time to go play borderlands again.